Why Rajnath Singh and Jaishankar need to collaborate even more in Modi 3.0

Maj Gen Ashok Kumar

The dynamics of the present times expect an integrated approach as opposed to the current practice of a coordinated approach between defence and foreign ministries

With changing times, the roles of military and foreign diplomacy and their inter-linkages have emerged substantially all over the world, including in India. File Image

The Modi government 3.0 was sworn in on June 9, 2024. However, as the BJP did not get an absolute majority, it can be better called the NDA government. That notwithstanding, the continuation of a stable government for the third time in succession bodes well for the country, especially in the current day of geopolitical, geoeconomic, and technological turmoil taking place all over the world.

As a part of this continuation the key ministries have been retained by the previous ministers, including the Defence Ministry and the External Affairs Ministry.

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With changing times, the roles of military diplomacy and foreign diplomacy and their inter-linkages have emerged substantially all over the world, including in India. Most of the challenges in the conventional foreign diplomacy domain have substantial connect of defence linkages now. It is therefore essential that an integrated plan be prepared by the duo of Raksha Mantri (RM) and Foreign Minister (FM) to tackle the challenges, and that too in an early time frame. The way the events are unfolding the world over, more and more challenges are expected to knock on our doors. It will therefore be prudent to take early advantage of the existing challenges so that we are in a better position to handle future challenges.

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Some of the challenges requiring urgent attention by the RM and FM duo are as follows:

• Maintaining strategic neutrality between the US and Russia. This has succeeded despite our oil imports and the purchase of the S400 missile system from Russia. Oil imports suited the US and West due to the technical aspect of it becoming a new commodity after getting refined. India also succeeded in avoiding Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions by the US despite importing the S400 missile system from Russia. This kind of challenge will continue and will be impacted by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine war. A keen eye for monitoring is essential.
• Best friend and worst adversary entered into a ‘No Limit’ friendship. Russia has been the most supportive country to India so far, whereas China is sitting on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. In fact, Russia delayed the launch of so-called special operations against Ukraine after the conclusion of the Beijing Olympics, and Russian President Vladimir Putin selected China as the first country to visit after his current term of presidency started. Indian defence and foreign policies have to navigate through this newly emerged relationship between Russia and China. So far, Russia has not indicated any leaning towards China in the India-China relationship and has even allowed the export of Brahmos missile systems to the Philippines. A constant endeavour has to be made to ensure that the India-Russia relationship is not marred by the Russia-China relationship.
• A strategic neutrality will also be required between Iran-Israel-Palestine issues due to the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel. The continued action by Israel against Hamas, resulting in large-scale civilian casualties, is also going to be an uphill task, especially if this conflict further expands in West Asia. Our defence as well as foreign policies will be again under severe test.
• Due to the signing of the Chabahar port agreement for 10 years of operation, Indian foreign policy has to also look at handling the avoidance of sanctions being threatened by the US on this account. Indian foreign policy might give a positive twist to Iran-US relations, more so after the accidental death of the Iranian president. All those countries that are directly or indirectly benefiting from this port have to leverage their collective strength, and India has to assume the leadership role.
• Handling India-US relations with shifting shades of trust. Having included India in Quad, it has been missing from AUKUS and now from Squad as well. The flagship initiative of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) is also not delivering the results as expected. The relationship will need careful handling, more so after the issue of the attempted killing of Pannun also surfaced, though the truth is yet to be known.
• The Chinese pattern of encircling Taiwan is quite similar to that of Russia against Ukraine. The China-Taiwan conflict can move on an escalatory ladder at any time, which can be a challenge for Indian foreign policy handlers, as was seen recently when the Taiwanese President greeted the Indian PM. Not only this, but the biggest challenge for this duo is the China challenge knocking at our doorstep at the LAC in Eastern Ladakh.
• Nepal’s claim of increased areas in the state of Uttarakhand, passing that as part of a parliamentary act, and printing of new maps on the currency are major areas of concern for this duo, as this appears to have a hidden hand of Chinese. The issue of Agnipath also needs to be looked at afresh; this is affecting bilateral relations. Excessive foot prints of China in Nepal are some of the issues our foreign policy has to handle, while the RM has to look at this as a new frontier emerging in the future.
• The resurgence of radicalisation in Bangladesh, unsolved issues between us and Bangladesh, and growing Chinese footprints are also going to be major areas of concern. The continued presence of the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh and her recent visit to India have a lot of positive contours that need to be fully leveraged, besides countering the growing Chinese influence.
• Aggressive Chinese diplomatic engagement with Bhutan to resolve the boundary dispute without addressing Indian security concerns will be another major challenge. Our duo needs to be conscious of these and not take this relationship for granted, especially when a democratically elected government is in power in Bhutan.
• The issue of the Maldives is well known. Indian foreign policy makers will need to handle this neighbour differently. New Delhi has continued to support the Maldives despite its anti-India stance, including sending back Indian defence personnel positioned for their own good. The visit of the Maldivian president on the swearing-in ceremony of PM Modi indicates a positive shift.

The challenges illustrated are only some of those that are knocking on our doors vigorously, but the list has grown substantially. It is believed that our defence and foreign ministries are fully aware of these challenges, but what is more important is to have an integrated approach as opposed to the current practice of a coordinated approach.

The author Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM(R) is DG CENJOWS and author of books- ‘China Betrays Again’ and ‘Indian Churnings on the Global Stage’. He tweets @ChanakyaOracle. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.