Why conflict termination between Israel and Hamas makes ample sense but will be very difficult to achieve

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

If the Houthis are not quietened early, energy and economic crises may be upon us faster than currently appreciated

The initiation of conflict between the Palestinian non-state outfit Hamas and Israel on 7 October this year was assessed by most analysts as a deliberate trigger towards sparking an international crisis of high proportion.  It was intended to make the world sit up and take notice of the fading significance of the Middle East involving mainly the Palestine-Israel conflict. Hamas feared that with Saudi Arabia and Iran potentially making up at the behest of China, and the US wishing to move on to the Indo=Pacific, Israel would rule the roost in the Middle East; as a result, the Palestinian cause and the ‘two-state’ solution would be history for future generations to pick up some day.Advertisement

Four months of relentless war, after the killing of 1,200 innocent Israelis and foreigners, plus the taking of almost 250 hostages on 7 October, has resulted in further killing of 25,000 Palestinians in Gaza and a level of destruction which may never allow the Palestinian people to restore their lives for a couple of generations. Both sides have achieved nothing in terms of realist objectives which are the destruction of Hamas on one hand and the commencement of such intense interest in Israel-Palestine affairs by the international community as to head towards an eventual conflict resolution. With the kind of destruction and casualties any resolution of conflict with wounds yet raw, would be unrealistic. Conflict termination is about the best that the world should hope for. What factors will dictate that?You May LikeUAE esports team NASR use this VPN & cybersecurityKaspersky  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

For Israel, sustaining a 3,50,000-strong army is draining. Makes ample sense to reduce it by first diluting the need and the threats. Israel suffers from a leadership problem; it cannot fight with a war cabinet forever. It is this cabinet which got duped by Hamas and so it is chastised and hugely embarrassed. Its response will be both irrational and unreasonable, primarily with the intent to gain face. Four months of extreme employment of munitions of every kind has resulted in the killing of so many without qualified military success. Who is to explain to the Israeli cabinet that the war Hamas is fighting cannot be won by tanks and missiles; it’s asymmetric and such methods only frustrate with little scope for lasting success. No one in his senses and possessing basic military acumen will ever forgive Hamas for its dastardly action on 7 October 2023 but the answers to it lie in long-term emaciation of that entity through denial of every means for its further growth and capability. That is where Israel failed miserably, allowing Hamas to gain political prominence.Advertisement

It’s not as if Israel should never have withdrawn from Gaza in 2005 or that it should now imprint a permanent footprint there. It could not have adopted a ‘no response’ policy to the recent Hamas action either. The options before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were complex. His Generals probably had little choice but to recommend the kinetic route but seeking the death of the last Hamas terrorist before declaring victory is akin to being at war forever. No one knows asymmetric warfare better than Israeli Generals themselves and they know that one of the biggest military challenges lies in drawing up clear political and military aims in such a standoff.Advertisement

The truth is that Israel’s failure commenced well before even a single shot was fired; 7 October was just a date. To allow a declared enemy to be armed the way Hamas could afford to be armed was Israel’s first failure.  There is much criticism of Israel’s inability to identify or predict as big a strike as the one by Hamas on 7 October. However, that intelligence failure apart, a failing no one talks of is how with an ongoing low-intensity conflict with Hamas, Israel could somehow never prevent the induction of military wherewithal into as small a territory as the Gaza Strip. There were sea routes which Israel did not adequately deny or even the movement of transborder humanitarian aid and supplies which may have been used for this.Advertisement

Not many have questioned how Hamas over time managed to get adequate digging equipment and cement/concrete into Gaza to unimpededly construct the maze of tunnels, or deploy the thousands of missiles that it possesses. Israeli television serials such as ‘Fauda’ which have gone viral all over the world depict some of the most advanced surveillance systems employing drones as constant eyes in the sky. None of that seemed to work towards ensuring that Hamas did not build up capability which could allow it to resist the virtual conventional Israeli onslaught into Gaza after 7 October.Advertisement

To get back to the factors. President Joe Biden hasn’t been pragmatic enough about the threats that his decisions are enhancing. His defence secretary has been the only one to have correctly advised the Israelis restraint. Decisions in anger are usually irrational. Israel is adding to the irrationality of Hamas and its leadership. US President Joe Biden’s aid package to Israel may be for electoral gains but bringing restraint to the nature of operations by Israel was his only option; he turned away from it. How then can the conflict be terminated? The world will not sit together on this, especially the big powers; the overflow of Ukraine is reverberating here.   International shipping is deeply affected by the activism of the Houthis who for no gain have entered into this as proxies. Energy prices due to the Red Sea and grain prices and availability due to Ukraine’s long war, will subsequently have an effect on the international economy of proportions akin to that of the Covid period. The US presidential election has had its own impact with expectations of a Republican return. For he who is in power the choices are far too limited. in the peace=building role be placed in Gaza, to prevent Hamas from acquiring any further military capability. Such an arrangement can only be under the aegis of the United Nations (UN) and will require UN Security Council endorsement, which under the current circumstances appears unrealistic. Besides, as a precursor to any third force (international), there has to be a declared ceasefire and acceptance of the proposed arrangement. Such an arrangement cannot be enforced; peace enforcement therefore cannot even be contemplated.Advertisement

It is the humanitarian situation which is the key to a ceasefire and termination of the conflict. The hostages are still at risk and women and children are more adversely affected than in any known recent conflict situation. The Arab world led by Saudi Arabia can make a major difference if it can put up a united front to oppose Hamas vociferously as much as get the US to pressurize Israel. The abject ambiguity that the Arabs are currently adopting is not going to be helpful to them either. The bombings and other operations in Gaza need to stop and the humanitarian agencies be given a free hand under international monitors to build up aid. The hostages have to be released, there can be no two ways about that and the separation of forces has to be complete; although Hamas is not fighting as a conventional unit. Russia and China are on the same side; they do not wish to see the continuation of hostilities either because these bring more unpredictability and hasten the already gathering storm of the next cycle of global terrorism. However, Russia is too isolated to play any role and China does not have the gravitas of handling the Middle East comprehensively yet.  One of the prime players remains Iran since its proxies are all stakeholders. However, it isn’t in the habit of taking peace initiatives which could compromise its power.Advertisement

If the Houthis are not quietened early, energy and economic crises may be upon us faster than currently appreciated. India will be too busy with its elections in the next 3-4 months, otherwise a great opportunity lies here for Indian diplomacy.   It’s for all the reasons above that the Hamas-Israel war is likely to only tone down in intensity. It will continue as a standoff with big strikes taking place infrequently. The situation elsewhere will dictate the flow of the war – US elections, the Ukraine war, Iran-Saudi relations, the Houthi menace in the Red Sea and more, at least for the next six months.Advertisement

The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.