War in Ukraine is getting worse. A China-India initiative to bring peace is a good idea

By: LT GENERAL PRAKASH MENON

China says abandon Cold War logic, UN asks “to stop war” but the Ukraine-Russia conflict is only growing. What should India be doing?

Wars are rooted in human minds, and they continue to plague world peace. The war in Ukraine is the latest edition of this scourge. It is even more dangerous than the other wars because it is taking place in Europe. The East to West geopolitical extent of Europe is a figment of imagination that can stretch from the United Kingdom to major parts of Russia. Historically, both the world wars and many other wars have emanated from Europe. The animosities that gave rise to the earlier wars can grow stronger and stage a comeback.

Therefore, what’s happening in Ukraine should be a matter of concern unless one believes that this is not a war. The question that arises is a geopolitical and historic one – can the war be contained in space and time?

Game of vetoes and abstentions

At the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting on 26 February, a draft resolution ostensibly intended to end Russia’s military offensive was rejected. It garnered the support of 11 members but was vetoed by Russia. India, China and the UAE abstained. The US representative said that the Russian Federation must be held accountable for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Russia’s veto was based on its belief that the resolution went against the interests of the Ukrainian people. It said that the main issues have not been considered, though the draft included calls to abide by the Minsk agreements and work constructively in relevant international frameworks, including the Normandy Format (France, Germany, Russian Federation) and the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russian Federation, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Russia assured the Security Council that its troops are not bombing cities or targeting civilians.

China’s representative said that it abstained because “the Council’s response should be taken with great caution, with actions to defuse and not add fuel to the fire. Ukraine should be a bridge between the East and the West, not an outpost for major powers”.

India also abstained, and after the vote, its representative called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and expressed concern for the Indian community in Ukraine. He emphasised that dialogue should be the only way to settle disputes and regretted that diplomacy was abandoned, calling for an immediate return to that path.

In less than 24 hours after the UNSC failed to pass the resolution, a similar draft was tabled at the 11th Emergency Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly on 28 February. After a fairly vigorous debate, the resolution was adopted with a vote of 141 in favour of it. Five countries — including Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria — opposed it. India and China were among the 35 countries that abstained.

UN outdated

That Russia has invaded Ukraine cannot be in any doubt. Such an act has connotations for the support garnered by the weaker party — Ukraine. In the General Assembly debate on the resolution on Ukraine, the US representative noted: “If the United Nations has any purpose, it is to prevent war, to condemn war, to stop war.  That is our job here today. It is the job you were sent here to do not just by your capitals but by all of humanity”.

Realistically, in the existing UN system, the passage of the resolution in the General Assembly is a prisoner of the veto power exercised by the permanent members of the UNSC. It is a reminder that the UN system is in dire need of reform, and it is something that India has been vociferous about for quite some time.

The Russian representative opposed and commented that “This document will not allow us to end military activities.  On the contrary, it could embolden Kyiv radicals and nationalists to continue to determine the policy of their country at any price”. He described Russia’s moves as the Russian Federation’s ‘Special Military Operation’ in an ongoing civil war. He assured that Russia will not carry out attacks against civilians and civilian facilities and asked the international community to not believe “the large number of fakes spread around the internet”.

He also noted that the draft does not mention the “illegal coup in Kyiv in February 2014 with the connivance of Germany, France, and Poland and with the support of the United States, where the legitimately elected president of their country was overthrown”.

India made a fairly lengthy statement, and the major part related to its efforts and the help it received in the evacuations of Indians and the dispatch of ministers found mention in it. The statement also included the dispatch of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, including medicines, medical equipment and other relief materials. India also supported an immediate ceasefire and stressed that differences can only be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. It abstained, citing the ‘totality of the evolving situation’.

China abstained and noted that conflict resolution required the abandonment of Cold War logic and the approach of expanding military blocs. It called for efforts to ensure parties engage in dialogue, citing that the draft has not undergone full consultations nor has it considered all the issues.

Gaining momentum

Following the General Assembly vote, Turkey hosted talks between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine without success. Meanwhile, the war has continued to expand in scope and intensity. Militarily, the Russians are in the process of laying siege to several Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Dnipro inter alia. Air and artillery bombardment has intensified. Accusations of deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian facilities, including hospitals, have been denied by Russia. The refugee crisis is getting progressively acute, and nearly two million people have fled to neighbouring countries with the bulk entering Poland. The implementation of understanding reached on establishing humanitarian corridors between Russia and Ukraine have achieved limited success with each side blaming the other for resorting to firing.

Militarily, the war is still contained within Ukraine, though support in terms of arms influx from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries is picking momentum. Such support harbours the seeds for the war to spread beyond Ukraine. It is a possibility that can be the most dangerous development. Simultaneously, the war is radiating rapidly in the economic and technological domains and the expansion of sanctions against Russia continues unabated. The spread and the impact are reverberating across the globe.

India’s approach

India has abstained in all the UNSC resolutions, including three at the UN Security Council, two at the UN General Assembly, two at the Human Rights Council, and one at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The question is — should India continue to do so? Which approach should it now take?

It is perhaps time that India view the Ukraine war as holding the potential for another world war. If it adopts such a position, it can concentrate its political and diplomatic efforts on what is now the real concern — the spread of the war outside of Ukraine. To address such a concern, it must first catalyse the support of those who are not a part of Europe and the Western bloc.

With similar voting patterns at the UN, albeit for slightly different reasons, a China-India initiative could be attempted even as the two military powers stare at each other across the Himalayas. The fear of failure of such an initiative should not hold India back. The chances of success lie in the self-interests of all the parties — it becomes evident as and when the global risks of a war in Europe start finding greater acceptance among European powers and the US.

Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (retd) is Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Takshashila Institution; former military adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweets @prakashmenon51. Views are personal.