Unravelling the national narrative

Deepak Sinha

A veteran paratrooper and consultant with the Observer Research Foundation, Deepak writes on matters of military and broader security concerns. His blog Para Phrase will seek to unravel issues in the security domain without fear or favour, mainly from a military perspective

There can be no denying the fact that the BJP under Mr Modi’s leadership has been able to, over this past decade, reinforce the perception of being seen as a focused and forward-looking party, intent on pushing our national interest to the fullest. This is in complete contrast to the rather dismal picture that our opposition presents with its inherent lack of focus, regressive emphasis on caste and the inability to work together. There is little doubt then, that Mr. Modi will once again lead the BJP and its allies to another win, though the margin of victory is difficult to predict.

This result need not have been inevitable. As our foremost and shrewdest political strategist, Prashant Kishor, points out, despite their best efforts, the BJP alliance has historically never got more than 38% of the votes cast. That leaves a sizeable 60% plus, opposed to the BJP and its ideology, that the opposition has failed to use effectively. More so, since we still have a long way to go to becoming Viksit Bharat anytime soon. The Government’s economic claims are under a bit of a cloud given the existing scale of unemployment, middling growth and rising prices. However, in addition, there are a couple of other fundamental issues that must be tackled urgently, if we are to truly unshackle our potential as envisaged.

The first and most crucial, pertains to the on-going confrontation with the Chinese along the LAC that remains unresolved. We have always tended to look at Chinese intentions through rose-tinted glasses. For one, our military believes that if we do not provoke the PLA, they will leave us alone and not escalate the situation. We forget they have an agenda and will not rest till it has been met in full. Thus, they have grabbed territory with impunity and a complete disregard for existing agreements or consequences. That is exactly how bullies behave and this fact seems to have finally dawned on our government, else our Defence Secretary would not have called them out as such in public, as he did.

In addition, the Government is deluded if it believes that bilateral trade, presently at USD 138 Billion, is so crucial that the Chinese will avoid hostile acts as that would adversely impact trade. We would do well to remember that our bilateral trade is insignificant, given that total Chinese trade amounts to around USD 7 Trillion, or 38% of its GDP. Undoubtedly if they were to indulge in such acts, while they will be adversely affected, the impact on us will be greater.

Probably the only thing that has prevented the Chinese from annexing all areas they claim is the fact that the mainland is over 2000 Kms from our borders, connected by extremely rugged and vulnerable lines of communication. As long as they are convinced that we are militarily capable enough to thwart their plans and interdict their lines of communication, they will continue to proceed with caution. Therefore, above everything else we need to greatly enhance our defence budget and strengthen the military. Hinting at the need for US assistance, as the Defence Secretary did, is not the answer, though that said, unlike the situation in 1962, the US-China confrontation can be made to work in our favour.

Apart from this issue, we have a surfeit of internal issues that can easily trip us up, especially those concerning our border states. For example, despite the passage of time, we have yet to conduct local elections in Jammu and Kashmir. It is only a matter of time before there is unrest of the type that is becoming increasingly widespread in Ladakh. Also, our problems in the East are no less alarming as violence continues unabated in Manipur which is impacting the neighbouring states. In this regard the Centre’s ill-advised decision to abrogate the Free Movement Regime (FMR) is only adding fuel to the fire as we see protests against this in Arunachal, Mizoram, Nagaland and Manipur. Also, a number of NSCN factions have agreed to act in tandem to oppose this decision. Incidentally, the NSCN(IM) has formed a Village Volunteer Force, called the Lim Army, that has started to control access and the security of Naga dominated areas, much in the same manner as the Meitei and Kuki militias.

This multiplicity of militias certainly does not bode well for the Security Forces, if the ceasefire in place collapses. In this context the focus is on the Suspension of Operations Agreement signed between the Kuki Militant Groups, the State and the Centre is up for extension at the end of the month. While the Manipur Government’s opposition is well-known, the manner in which the Centre acts is of critical importance. Many among the Kuki community suspect that the Centre may well abrogate the agreement. Adding to their fears is the fact that the Army has reportedly been bringing in Mine Protected Vehicles (MPVs), used in the conduct of counter insurgency operations, into its locations in Kuki dominated areas, such as Churachandpur.

While the Army and the Assam Rifles, have, till now, been fair and even-handed in their dealings with the two warring communities, the Kukis are fearful this may change if the agreement is voided. Given that presently AFSPA is in effect in only areas dominated by them, they fear the army may be used against them, while Meitei militant groups are allowed to run free. If this were to happen, the Army will no longer be seen as neutral or apolitical. That would be rather unfortunate, as till now, the Army’s success in controlling violence and pacifying local populations in insurgency hit areas has been because of its apolitical and even-handed approach. One hopes that the Central Government keeps these aspects in view while dealing with Manipur. Inclusiveness, be it with regard to ethnicity, language, wealth distribution or religion, is the key to future progress, otherwise like Pakistan, we may find ourselves on the road to perdition.