The Times, They Are A-Changin

Deepak Sinha

What would one have said on witnessing a Dodo desperately flailing about trying to fly to avoid extinction? President Trump’s last ditch fling to change America’s fate, and the course of history, is in many ways comparable to that. We are witness to the detritus of America’s never ending wars and what that done to their finances and the psyche of its people.

Mr. Trump, and his 76 Million MAGA Republican cohorts, unconscionably believe that the only way they can halt this descent into irrelevance, is for the white Anglo-Saxon to “regain” control of the wheel. Though rather retrograde in the current socio-political milieu, where minorities have sufficient leverage to tilt the balance of power, and only feasible through radical action that can render them powerless. It would require the destruction of the very institutions that protect and enable the “rule of law”, essential in a liberal democracy. In essence, attacking America’s republican character so that, while it remains a democracy, it ends up becoming less of a republic.

Those who conflate Mr. Trump and his Mini-Me, Elon Musk, taking the sledgehammer to government as the onset of dictatorship are clearly unaware of the subtle difference that separates a democracy from a republic. A forgivable error, given that both forms of government, unequivocally give the people the power to govern themselves, either directly or through representatives they elect, unlike in a monarchy or dictatorship. The term ‘democracy’, from the Greek words ‘demos’ or the common people, and ‘kratos’ or strength, represents the concept of “rule of the majority”, while the term ‘republic’, from the Latin ‘rēs pūblica’, meaning “public thing,” implies that the State, though run by the representatives of its people, has to do so for the common good and in essence belongs to each one of its people regardless of caste, creed, gender or ethnicity.

While democracy can easily devolve into a tyranny of the majority, wherein the minority is left unprotected, republics are governed by laws that protect all citizens regardless of their beliefs. This is done through the adoption of a Constitution that lays down their inalienable rights and establishes a system of checks and balances. Indeed this subtle difference is best explained in the words attributed, wrongly some believe, to Benjamin Franklin that “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” In essence the only thing that keeps the lamb off the lunch menu is the fact that it is protected by the rule of law.

Though, President Trump has come to power lawfully after winning the election, fair and square, his ongoing attempt to destroy the Republic and the rule of law is aimed at taking America, and the international community along with it, back to a world where, as the Athenian General and historian Thucydides famously wrote, “The strong do as they will, and the weak suffer what they must.” Whether the remainder, of the approximately 250 Million Voting Eligible Population (VEP), who did not vote for him, will allow him to get away with his egregious actions, is unclear as these are still early days. Certainly, there is growing opposition to Elon Musk’s indiscriminate dismemberment of Government which is also adversely impacting the President’s MAGA base. In fact, early indications do suggest that even his most ardent supporters, while in complete agreement with his intentions, are not quite happy with the execution and how things are working out, including his tango with Putin.

While America goes through its prolonged death- rattle, it took the Western Roman Empire another 66 years to collapse after the first sacking of Rome by the Visigoths in 410 AD, the question that occupies the thoughts of most world leaders and civil society alike, including ours, is where does that leave us? Trade wars with his allies and the talk of conquest undoubtedly creates uncertainty all around. After all, the sharp decline in stock markets, for example, does not only impact investors and pension funds in America and Western Europe, but here as well.

However, in our context, if financial guru Ruchir Sharma, is to be believed, there is a silver lining. The imposition of reciprocal tariffs will force our government to reconsider and lower import duties on a host of products, as it has already done in some cases, if our exports to the US are to remain competitive. The opening up of our economy will result in more competition and lower prices. We have been held ransom for far too long by protectionist elements with leverage over the political establishment and government, that allows them to produce sub-standard goods at great profit. It will also force a transformation of the agricultural sector, where gross inefficiency and outdated regulations have kept farm productivity at abysmal levels, though not without some pain.

While President Trump does have China in the cross-hairs, whether that will be of any help to us is unclear, as it must be to Taiwan. What his U-turn on Ukraine does tell us is that we better get serious about Atmanirbharta in defence. Nobody else will pull our fat out of the fire, except us. Also, hollow slogans are all very well, but they won’t deter China or win us battles, let alone wars. We can ill afford the likes of the truly inefficient DRDO or HAL and other defence PSUs that we are saddled with. Nor, for that matter, can we any longer continue to pander to local oligarchs with ties to those in government. The misuse of the offset clause in the Rafale deal is a case in point.

Finally, what made Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to the United States remarkable, was his subservience and uncharacteristic lack of self-confidence that was on public display. We may not be privy to what happened behind closed doors, but the glimpses that we saw at the joint press conference make quite evident that the days of “Howdy Modi” are long gone, regardless of what the media may report, or what Mr. Modi now claims. We did get to see a visibly cowed and chastened Mr Modi on his return from America. Oddly enough, one unexpected fallout of this visit seems to be the salutary impact it has had on his government’s dealings with minorities in the North East. One can only hope this rubs off elsewhere. We truly need a healthy democracy and an even more robust Republic, if we are to make any real progress.