The recent and ongoing Russia Ukraine war as well as the Israel Hamas conflict have some important lessons for India.

Anil Trigunayat 

This war between Israel and Hamas has gone on for an unprecedented more than 200 days, with exceptional destruction on both sides. The declared objectives of both sides have not been achieved. While it has broken various myths and presumptions, it has established that a war between a state and a non-state actor may be an ongoing tirade, but its outcome is totally unpredictable. Even though decimated, the Hamas leadership continues to remain in the fray, denying outright victory to beleaguered Netanyahu, who is on the verge of losing their sole supporter and protector—the US.Advertisement

President Joe Biden, facing an uphill election, is losing credibility abroad and at home for his Jekyll and Hyde approach. Their frustration with Netanyahu was more than evident when they outlined certain red lines, seeing the terrible humanitarian disaster in the plight of Gazans and Palestinians. Its misadventure of attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which had the potential to expand the disastrous war beyond Gaza, did not amuse them either.

Although the Iran-Israel showdown was managed, given the US commitment to the security of Israel, aid and arms continue to be provided, thereby letting the war go on. The Houthis are threatening to take the ‘Ships war‘ to the Mediterranean. They have already hit 107 ships since November, adversely impacting maritime traffic.You May LikePowering the growth of India’s industriesMitsubishi ElectricTry Now  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

Such US policy has provoked the conscience of a large number of students across the Ivy League and other universities, as the Arab lobbies in the West have acquired much greater salience. Arabs have traditionally voted for Democrats, but this time around, as per observers, it may not be so, and that could make a big difference for Biden’s re-election, which is naturally even more important for him.

Hence, his warnings to Netanyahu and his ultra-right-wingers to ceasefire and even his first time abstaining from UNSC Resolution 2728, as well as telling Bibi that in an escalation with Tehran, Washington would not support him, may have carried a message because of which talks between Hamas and Mossad and the CIA, with the help of Egypt and Qatar, are still going on and likely to produce some kind of truce and exchange of hostages and prisoners.Advertisement

On the other hand, Hamas also cannot go scot-free and take refuge behind the suffering internally displaced million plus Gazans holed into Rafah, which Netanyahu is threatening to attack ‘with or without a ceasefire deal’ as he proclaims that by doing so he would be able to get a conclusive defeat of Hamas. The last six months of blind bombings and operations may not inspire much confidence in achieving that objective. The other two frontiers—Houthis in the Red Sea and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria—are ever-so-livid.

Hence, efforts are on by all sides to achieve some ‘stable calm’ that could constitute a permanent ceasefire, as per reports coming out of Cairo, where the delegations are congregating. It has been reported by Hamas that obstacles relating to the number and categories of Palestinian prisoners to be released in the first phase in exchange for hostages have been overcome, and the US has assured the turning of the truce into a ceasefire.Advertisement

Meanwhile, Cairo talks hold some promise this time, as the most recent proposal reportedly suggests a six-week ceasefire during which Hamas would release 33 hostages, including women, female soldiers, elderly individuals, and injured captives, in exchange for the release of a large number of Palestinians from Israeli jails. Both sides have come down from their high pedestals as well, despite Netanyahu being under threat from his own ultra-rightist parties to cede any concessions.

Apart from the excessive suffering of Palestinians due to them, Hamas has also been placed under tremendous pressure as Qatar no longer wishes to host their political leadership in Doha. Qatar, under pressure from the US, despite trying very hard to achieve some kind of truce the second time, was criticised by Netanyahu for not doing enough. And a miffed Doha started going slow on it as Cairo took some more lead. Now a worried Jordan may be their next jaunt. Jordanians do not forget their tryst with Palestinians during the 1970s, when Arafat supporters almost dislodged the then-King Hussein in a mutiny.Advertisement

Moreover, nearly sixty per cent of its population is of Palestinian origin; hence, obviously, the Kingdom faces occasional protests and anti-Israel demonstrations rather often. This also puts the 1994 Peace Treaty between Israel and Jordan at risk. Jordan’s plight is its dependence on Saudi Arabia and the US, which acts at cross purposes with their stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Moreover, King Abdullah II is the custodian of the third holiest mosque at Al Aqsa in Jerusalem, which places a spiritual responsibility on Muslims and even Christians.

Secretary Blinken was yet again in Riyadh, trying to prevail upon the Saudis, the Egyptians, and the Israelis to push for a ceasefire and for unhindered humanitarian supplies through more corridors, as well as to prevent the invasion of Rafah by the Israeli Defence Forces. Blinken tweeted, “President Biden has insisted that Israel take specific, concrete, measurable steps to better address humanitarian suffering, civilian harm, and the safety of aid workers in Gaza, he also reiterated that though some more crossings were opened but that was not enough.”Advertisement

Meanwhile, Turkey is also putting pressure on Israel by suspending trade. It started when Israel declined Turkish requests to take part in an aid airdrop. Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat reiterated that the trade halt with Israel will continue until a permanent ceasefire in Gaza as well as unhindered humanitarian aid are secured. Of course, Turkey and Israel have had a love-hate relationship and have possibly withdrawn their ambassadors rather frequently.

Netanyahu is also beset by various legal troubles, both domestically and internationally. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is still pursuing the genocide case, while the International Criminal Court (ICC) is threatening to issue an arrest warrant against him even though neither Israel nor the US are its members. But if an arrest warrant, like that against Putin, is issued against Netanyahu, his travels could be restricted; hence, he desperately asked Biden to intervene.

The US and Saudi Arabia, on a standalone basis or as part of the normalisation of ties with Israel, are continuing to work on a security agreement in which a political solution to the Palestinian issue is inbuilt. At the World Economic Forum held in Riyadh, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah confirmed that Saudi Arabia and the United States were close to finalising the bilateral agreement. He and Blinken added that “most of the work has already been completed. We have outlined what we believe needs to happen on the Palestinian front”.

The scenario is still replete with uncertainty, especially the fate of Palestine as a viable independent state. No doubt most observers felt that perhaps the only positive outcome of the ongoing war would be a real sincere effort to achieve the ‘two state solution’, but the consistent denial by Netanyahu to even consider it and the US vetoing the Palestine state’s recognition at the UNSC last week do not augur well for this prospect in the near future.

The writer is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is a Distinguished Fellow with leading think tank Vivekananda International Foundation.