The Chinese Hurry to Nowhere

By Lt Gen PR Shankar (R)

Xi Jinping wants to be a global statesman and the tallest leader in China putting Mao and Deng in the pale.

Post-covid China is going through a ‘crisis of success’ which was generated over the past three decades. There is imminence of failure ahead. The gravity defying growth achieved by high debt fuelled investment, rapid industrialisation and urbanisation was admirable. However there is tremendous overhang in slowing manufacturing capacity, unutilised infrastructure, unoccupied property, soapy financial bubbles, inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and toxic bank assets. Unemployment and inequality are raising their dark heads. These are closing on to China from all directions in the short-term. In the long term, the demography and climate change are all set to tighten the vice grip on collective and individual ambitions of China’s current and futuristic rulers. Advertisement

Despite these forebodings, the PRC yearns to be a super power second to none and is powering full throttle ahead. The CCP is going with all guns blazing to prove that the only way to Tianxia is through the gates of China. Xi Jinping wants to be a global statesman and the tallest leader in China putting Mao and Deng in the pale. All of them are in a tearing hurry to achieve their ambitions. Preferably by day before yesterday. A question which begs an answer is that why the tearing hurry? Is China going to miss the bus?   

The answer to this question begins from the fact, that at the root, Xi and his cohorts are ruling over an unnatural state called PRC. It is unnatural by geography, governance and growth. Historically, China encompassed areas to the South of the ‘Great Walls’. Anything beyond the ‘Great Walls’, including Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet, was outside the core of all dynasties  which ruled China. As a result one has a situation with 90% of the population (Hans) living densely in 50% of China’s territory and 10% of other races living sparsely in the other 50% of the territory. This is not only a geographical and spatial imbalance but also an economic disparity. Further, China is being governed by an authoritarian system which is neither natural to it nor communist by nature.  China of the yore was governed by dynasties,  clans and warlords in power sharing agreements. The current unitary system with a disenfranchised population is neither dynastic nor Communist.  Xi Jinping and his cohorts rule over an imbalanced security fixated authoritarian structure constantly struggling for legitimacy. Lastly, since the 1970’s China has grown economically at a rapid pace unmatched by any other country in the history of mankind. It is not natural and organic growth consistent with the resources, culture and capability of the population and is riven by huge inequalities. It is currently showing signs of reverting to normal. It is under these conflicting conditions, China’s hurry to continue to rise and rule the world needs examination.    

The rise and fall of any nation depends on its people. It is no different in China. Its  declining demographics consists of a shrinking population, aging society and  a reducing work force. China was aware of this problem from the turn of the century, but kicked the can down the road. It did not prepare for this eventuality. Now, it cannot  redress the issue. The stark fact is that China’s declining demography is mathematical, time bound, finite, predictable and unavoidable. China’s window of opportunity is closing fast. China is betting on innovation and technology to beat  the problem. However no nation with a declining population has risen to be a superpower. China will sooner or later become a poorer Japan as economic stagnation sets in and prosperity reduces. China in all probability will be socially unstable internally and exhibit external aggression as it hurries to get past the fast closing window.  As time goes by, the effects of a declining demography will be felt. In fact the problem has already started manifesting itself. This is the biggest factor driving China’s hurry. 

Xi Jinping genuinely believes in common prosperity through state control. He has an ambition to establish a Sino centric world order based on communism of the Marx-Mao variety. He deeply believes that a society based on communist ideology and run as per his ‘thought’  is an ideal one and that China should lead the world into such an arrangement. However, beyond this, he has a personal ambition of being a taller leader than Mao or Deng in Chinese history. Of late he is exhibiting signs of being known as a global statesman who has shaped the world. The evidence lies in the prehistory which has been scripted by the communist propaganda machinery sometime last year. The problem is that he is already in his third term and is not getting younger. He knows his time is limited and he has to cement his place and that of China in the halo of a glowing sun. To achieve this, he has purged all opposition and has absolute loyalists in his team who will carry out his bidding as per the time lines he has set. He is incessantly driving China to achieve the desired outcomes in these time lines. It is a race against time. 

The CCP always had a contract with the people to derive its legitimacy to rule them. In Mao’s time,  legitimacy was drawn by the iron fist of communist ideology . The great leap forward and the cultural revolution, as gory they were, kept Mao in absolute power. When ideology started wearing thin, Deng struck a new bargain with people. The new social contract was that people gave up their rights in return for the economic prosperity. This ran its course till the onset of the pandemic. The structural flaws of the Chinese economy widened during the pandemic to slow it down. Recovery does not seem imminent due to manifold factors. The current ‘economic prosperity’ compact is at risk. Xi and the CCP have therefore drawn a new compact called the ‘China dream’ and ‘Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation’ backed by a nationalistic call of ‘Revenge on the Century of Humiliation’. This has resulted in China externalizing through ultranationalist assertion and claims of sovereignty on Senkakus/Diaoyu islands,  Taiwan,  South China Sea and the India-China border. Overall,  CCP legitimacy is increasingly shifting from economic well-being to being dependent on nationalism. The issue is that all this hubris without tangible outcomes will mean nothing. It will not improve people’s livelihood. The new leadership is therefore pushing China into a situation where the people will be convinced to endure privations pending realisation of the dreams painted to them. However there is only that much slack before people become impatient.    

There is a corollary to this. In recent times it is being surmised that China’s global objectives are slowly getting out of its reach. As this perception has increased both externally and internally, the ‘out of reach effect’ has been kicking in. The more distant China’s objectives appear, the ruling Chinese Communist Party appears less powerful or vulnerable at home. Resultantly it is driving  Xi Jinping and CCP to strive harder to project China on to a pedestal higher than merely sustainment of  economic growth and internal stability.

Many geopolitical equations have changed due to the ongoing Ukraine war. It is  now over a year old with no end in sight. China sees that USA is heavily committed in the war and is distracted by it. Simultaneously, Russia the other big power has become dependent on China while being fully in the thick of action. EU nations seem to be emerging considerably weakened. In this scenario, Having staked a claim in mediating between warring nations, China will also have the pulse of the conflict and will also be able to dictate the time, pace and direction of conflict termination. China sees this as a window of opportunity it has created for itself to ascend to pole position before USA disengages and turns its attention solely on China. This imposes conditionalities on China to move forward in a hurry.   

China has invested and committed itself heavily in infrastructure projects spanning Africa, South America, South Asia, Central Asia , ASEAN, Balkans, parts of the Middle East, through its BRI. Many of these projects were started when the political climates in those countries were aligned to China. Then the pandemic and Ukraine war set in. These events have had a widespread impact on BRI nations. Many of them feel debt trapped by Chinese loans. In  countries like Pakistan, Sri Lanka  and Zambia, the political and public sentiment has changed. In other countries, BRI projects are languishing due to issues related to unaffordability, cost over runs, poor quality and post-covid management issues. As it stands the BRI seems to be a lost cause to gain global supremacy. However, if China does not move fast or is not on the ball, what it can salvage out of the BRI will also be lost. Hence China has to hurry. In its hurry, it has to turn to the oceans and become a maritime power. The paradox is that China has always been a continental power with no experience of being a maritime power. This is also pushing China into a hurry of its own kind.    

Overall, China and Xi Jinping knows that their window of strategic opportunity is closing soon. That is why he keeps talking of ‘worst-case and extreme scenarios’, and an ability to withstand ‘high winds and waves and even perilous storms’. Moreover Chinese selfish intent and ambition are also fully known. Hence all narratives  of ‘win-win’ situation and ‘common good’ do not cut ice globally anymore. The ‘lovable China’ image which Xi has tried to project has been replaced by an ‘avoidable China’. Countries are either giving China a wide berth by avoiding it or building hedges if unavoidable.  In such conditions, how does China hurry? The only way China seems to be hurrying is to make a military mark on the USA, Taiwan or India when the opportunity presents itself or alternately create one through the gray zone. That will allow it to establish its supremacy and then coerce others to abide by its rules. I have said about this stratagem often enough. 

Resultantly, what we will see most likely in the foreseeable future is an internally unstable China, which will be making its external forays in a hurry but will in all probability reach nowhere. The only way to break out of this predicament is if takes military risks, which hitherto fore it was not prepared to take. All in all, a wannabe superpower careening on to our path even if in economic stagnation and demographic decline is still a heavy weight. India needs to recognise these factors and side step the oncoming rush which is coming our way and let China crash through the window into the deep abyss beyond.