Russia-Ukraine war: How Zelenskyy’s sacking of his General shows brewing conflict in the Kyiv regime

Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh

General Zaluzhnyi had gained enormous credit for spearheading the successful effort by Ukrainian forces to halt and then reverse Russia’s initial attack launched on 24 February 2022

On 8 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he was removing General Valerii Zaluzhnyi from command of the military and promoting General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, to replace him. “I thanked him for two years of defence of Ukraine,” President Zelenskyy said on social media, adding: “We also discussed who could be in the renewed leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”Advertisement

General Zaluzhnyi had gained enormous credit for spearheading the successful effort by Ukraine’s forces to halt and then reverse Russia’s initial attack launched on 24 February 2022. He was appointed Commander-in-Chief in July 2021, just half a year before Russia launched its all-out invasion.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine, under his leadership, had succeeded in pushing back initial Russian advances near the capital, Kyiv, and then led successful counteroffensives later in 2022, freeing parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. Both General Zaluzhnyi and General Syrskyi played key roles in those campaigns.

The dismissal ended weeks of speculation about the fate of General Valery Zaluzhnyi, whose relationship with President Zelenskyy had deteriorated, and there were strong rumours regarding his exit.

Brewing friction

The Ukrainian forces under General Zaluzhnyi had contained the initial Russian onslaught. That was a great achievement, because almost everybody expected the Russian forces to steamroll their way across the plains of Ukraine. But lately, his record has been tarnished by the failure of last year’s counteroffensive, which ran into well-prepared Russian defences.Advertisement

Last year’s highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, using soldiers trained by NATO allies and Western weapons and equipment, reclaimed little territory, falling far short of expectations. General Zaluzhnyi and his American counterparts disagreed sharply over tactics; he ignored US advice to concentrate his forces, which he believed could have caused far higher casualties.Advertisement

The President and General Zaluzhnyi also increasingly differed over strategy, and there was the underlying fear that General Zaluzhnyi’s increasing popularity, both within the military and among ordinary citizens, made him a potential political threat to President Zelenskyy.

A poll by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology found that 88 per cent of Ukrainians supported the General. Presidents Zelenskyy’s approval rating, though also high, was markedly lower at 62 per cent.Advertisement

But of all the reasons mentioned, it is the difference regarding the new conscription law that would increase the size of the military. There was a reported disagreement about how many soldiers Ukraine needs to mobilise this year.

General Zaluzhnyi proposed mobilising close to 500,000 troops, a figure Zelenskyy viewed as impractical given the scarcity of uniforms, guns, and training facilities and the potential challenges related to recruitment.Advertisement

President Zelenskyy said publicly that Ukraine lacks the funds to pay so many new conscripts. General Zaluzhnyi countered that Ukraine is already short of forces because of mounting casualties and needs to match those 400,000 new soldiers that Russia plans to mobilise.

In an opinion piece for CNN General Zaluzhnyi wrote about “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our Armed Forces without the use of unpopular measures”.Advertisement

It is also reported that an essay for the Economist last year had infuriated President Zelenskyy, as General Zaluzhnyi compared the state of the conflict to a stalemate like the First World War.

General Valery Zaluzhnyi said, “Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” He also stated that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” This grim view of the war clashed with President Zelenskyy’s effort to show that Ukraine is making good progress in order to ensure that Ukraine’s allies stay committed.Advertisement

In a CNN article, General Zaluzhnyi suggested that Ukraine’s leadership had not tackled problems in the defence industries, which had led to production bottlenecks and ammunition shortages. He warned Ukraine was now having to “contend with a reduction in military support from key allies” as they have become ensnared by their own political tensions and distracted by conflicts elsewhere. He said the best way for Ukraine’s army to avoid being drawn into a “positional war,” in which fighting is conducted along permanent and fortified frontlines, is for Ukraine to “master” unmanned weapons systems, or drones, which he called the “central driver of this war”.Advertisement

Colonel Oleksandr, a battalion commander fighting in eastern Ukraine, has been quoted in the Washington Post as saying, “My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now—Zaluzhnyi is someone 80 per cent of the military considers a good authority.” “This is a catastrophic step,” he said, “The morale of both the military and society will go way down.”Advertisement

New Commander-in-Chief

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the 58-year-old Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, who is the new Commander-in-Chief, was credited with leading the defence of Kyiv in the first month of the war and then orchestrating a successful counteroffensive in the North Eastern Kharkiv region in 2022.

General Syrskyi began his soldiering career during the last years of the Soviet Union, training in Moscow. With Ukraine’s independence in 1991, he rose through the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, becoming a Major General in 2009. He played a prominent role in Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invaders in the eastern Donbas region in 2014 and 2015.Advertisement

Two years later, he became the commander of all Ukrainian forces involved in the anti-terrorist operation as the conflict with Russia in Eastern Ukraine became known.

But as per a report in the Washington Post, he is especially disliked, among rank-and-file soldiers, as he is considered by many to be a Soviet-style commander who kept forces under fire too long in Bakhmut when Ukraine should have withdrawn.Advertisement

As per the Financial Times, some analysts have expressed misgivings about General Syrskyi’s decision-making since February 2022 and concerns over his ability to resist political interference in operational matters.

The future

The upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Ukraine in the war, amid intensified Russian attacks, wrangling in the United States over providing aid to Ukraine, and bringing to the fore the tensions between Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership.

Proposed aid for Ukraine has stalled in Washington and Brussels because of internal political disputes in the United States and the European Union. House Republicans have blocked a White House request for an additional $60 billion related to the war in Ukraine.

General Zaluzhnyi’s removal also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain material and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.

The decision to remove senior military leadership in the midst of conflict poses risks, including a disruption to operational planning. But President Zelenskyy said a new command team must begin by laying out “a detailed action plan for the year ahead.” However, the future plan will need to account for the uncertainty around the pace and quantity of Western weapons and the challenges in recruiting new soldiers to the fight. There is no doubt that after the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, the focus of the Western powers has shifted, and this is affecting aid to Ukraine.

Conclusion

General Zaluzhnyi posted on Facebook: “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy. The tasks of 2022 are different from the tasks of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to new realities as well.” He added a picture of him and the president shaking hands and smiling.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov thanked General Zaluzhnyi for his “achievements and victories” but added: “Battles 2022, 2023 and 2024 are three different realities. 2024 will bring new changes for which we must be ready. New approaches, new strategies are needed.”

Until now, Ukraine has enjoyed relative stability in its military ranks compared with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin had named General Valery Gerasimov to the top job one year ago, dismissing General Sergei Surovikin, who had been in the post for just three months.

“The Kyiv regime has many problems, and everything has gone wrong there, that’s for sure,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 7 February when asked about General Zaluzhnyi’s possible dismissal. “Obviously, the failed counteroffensive and problems at the front increase the disagreements between members of the Kyiv regime,” he said.

The dismissal, however, brings to the fore civil-military relations in times of conflict and the differing perceptions on how to conduct war. It appears that General Zaluzhnyi wasn’t willing to force attacks without actual equipment and reserves to keep up appearances.

The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author.