Prabowo third time lucky in Indonesian presidential polls

Indonesia, which accounts for the largest population of Muslims in any country, is also the leading ASEAN nation in economic terms.

Gurjit Singh

Former Ambassador

THE Indonesian presidential election, held on February 14, is producing a result in line with the recent opinion polls. Defence Minister and former General Prabowo Subianto is ahead in the race on the basis of eight ‘quick counts’. The final result is expected next month.

Prabowo has got over 58 per cent of the votes so far, thus crossing the mandatory threshold of 50 per cent. This means that he would be declared the winner without a run-off election.

Among his rival candidates, former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan obtained about 25 per cent of the votes, while Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo of the ruling Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) or the PDIP bagged less than 20 per cent. Prabowo may end up getting more than the 85 million votes which outgoing President Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, had received in the 2019 election.

Prabowo is third time lucky. He contested the elections in 2014 and 2019 against President Jokowi. He lost both times. After the second loss, he made up with Jokowi and joined the cabinet as the Defence Minister. His Gerindra Party has consistently had over 15 per cent of the seats in parliament, making it an important legislative force. By bringing Prabowo in, Jokowi secured a huge parliamentary advantage because the ruling PDIP has rarely got more than 20 per cent of the seats. It remains to be seen whether Prabowo’s success will put his party into a dominant position in parliament, or if the PDIP will continue to wield clout, which could then cause problems for his administration.

Prabowo has emerged as the people’s President, articulating the aspirations of the people for a better life. His pledge to ensure better health facilities and more education opportunities in backward areas and to deal with malnutrition and stunting in Indonesian children struck a chord with voters. Prabowo also said that Indonesia’s average economic growth of 5 per cent over the last five years needed to be augmented to at least 8 per cent per annum, for which appropriate policies would have to be adopted. As ASEAN’s largest economy and biggest country, Indonesia has much going for it. If it grabs these opportunities, it could build upon the success that Jokowi brought during his decade in power.

Jokowi belongs to the ruling PDIP, which is led by former President Megawati Sukarnoputri. The party carries the legacy of the first President, Sukarno. Jokowi was inducted by the PDIP in 2012 as the governor of Jakarta, in partnership with Prabowo’s party. But thereafter, the PDIP dumped the partnership and went ahead with Jokowi for President. He won convincingly as a fresh face among dynasties. This was repeated in 2019. The party leadership seemed to treat Jokowi, despite a decade of a successful presidency, as just a party functionary and did not show him the public honour or private consultation that he merited. So, Jokowi formed a separate political arrangement with Prabowo and kept his word by backing him in this election.

Prabowo benefited from the positive public image that Jokowi has. A decade on, the latter enjoys an approval rating of over 80 per cent. Jokowi chose to back Prabowo rather than help his own party, which seemed to disown him. As a result, the PDIP seems set to come third in the presidential race.

Jokowi is keen that his legacy be maintained. This includes continuing the infrastructure development in Indonesia, building a new capital, Nusantara, in Kalimantan on the Borneo island, and localising the processing of important minerals such as nickel and copper to a greater extent. Prabowo has pledged to continue these policies, showing that he would be the flag bearer of Jokowi’s legacy. As if this was not enough, Jokowi secured the vice-presidency under Prabowo for his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Thirty-six-year-old Gibran, who like his father, was the mayor of the heritage city of Solo in Central Java, lacks experience at the national level, but he brings the youth factor.

Indonesia, which accounts for the largest population of Muslims in any country, has a median age of about 29 years. Youngsters have seemingly flocked to the Prabowo-Gibran team. They represent the youth’s aspirations. Prabowo and Gibran’s campaign was tech-savvy and social media-friendly. In a country where the use of the Internet is widespread, tools like TikTok were used for image-building. It brought heavy support to the team. The surge in the youth’s aspirations and Jokowi’s popularity have been critical in Prabowo’s imminent victory. Most media comments tend to remind us of Prabowo’s past as an army special forces commander and his close ties to former military ruler Suharto. But that is all in the past. Prabowo’s role as the Defence Minister has been statesman-like, and his pronouncements have been measured. His performance has been well rated. All that, coupled with Jokowi’s charisma and the youth’s support, has evidently created a surge that the traditional parties could not counter.

Now that Jokowi has not supported the PDIP candidate, he will cease to be a party supporter but will continue to play an important role in Indonesian politics. He is constitutionally barred from contesting the presidency, but he is only 62 years old and, therefore, has much to contribute to the country. His popularity will perhaps give him the role of a father figure in this government, with a say in who the cabinet members will be. He will bring gravitas and experience, provide guidance and help in parliamentary coalition-building.