Pahalgam terror attack: Is the China–Pak ‘ironclad axis’ putting India in a tight spot?

The most important partner of Pakistan is its iron-clad friend China which despite its efforts to improve ties with New Delhi would do its best to support Islamabad bilaterally, regionally and internationally, writes Amb. Anil Trigunayat, a global affairs expert, and former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta.
By Anil Trigunayat

Pakistan based terror groups have been executing the cross-border terrorism against India for nearly four decades as an instrument of Rawalpindi’s designs in particular and their foreign policy in general. World knows and fully understands the source and sustenance of the rabid terrorist groups that have proliferated in our western neighbourhood for decades with the alacrity of misplaced Jihad and the impunity extracted from global majors including its iron clad friends.

Pakistan has skillfully leveraged its nuisance value with major global powers. It has done so by operating as a rentier state—a fact effectively acknowledged by Pakistan’s Defence Minister this week—serving as a toolkit for terrorism. Pakistan exemplifies a state actor that works in close coordination with multiple non-state actors. This has been repeatedly demonstrated through its orchestration of terror attacks, particularly against India and Afghanistan. There remains little recognition within Pakistan of the grave folly of this strategy, largely because the international community has failed to impose significant costs on its politico-military establishment.

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Full text of Indian foreign secy’s speech after Operation SindoorPahalgam Terror Attack: Indian response will be sharp but calibrated, experts believeIndia slams ‘rogue state’ Pakistan at UN after its Defence Minister’s admission of terror linksThe heinous April 22  attacks killing 26 innocent Indian tourists on the basis of their religion by a comparatively unknown terrorist group — TRF (The Resistance Front), an off shoot of LeT which in their bravado quickly claimed the attacks and then under pressure due to repercussions to their parent group and country made a lame excuse to retract. But the writing on the wall and malign footprints are there for everyone to see. No wonder the whole world condemned these dastardly inhuman  acts of terror asking for accountability while  standing with India in its hour of grief. Anger all over will exact its revenge.

In keeping with utter outrage in India the decisive leadership of PM Modi began to clean up inside and made its first comprehensive diplomatic strike against Pakistan with unprecedented steps especially holding of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty in abeyance. This step alone could be much more potent than even military strikes on terror outfits and their backers, which in any case will happen. Country stands together to punish them for good. Pakistan is obviously jittery and reaching out to its friends with an ‘save our ship’ (SOS) appeal while lamely asking for a neutral and credible investigation, simply to buy time. History is replete with their continued perfidy, denial and deception. 

Pakistani Ambassadors and special envoys have been asked to reach out to countries of their accreditation to spread the lies in the coating of falsity of innocence. Some Islamic countries in the Gulf, Iran, Azerbaijan and Türkiye stand out. Hence the noise of mediation and de-escalation and diplomacy has become high in decibels.

Reportedly Islamabad is looking for mediation, arms and alms. Ankara, another long-term strong ally of Pakistan, as per some reports appeared to have provided them arms and drones and spares in a jiffy through its six planes convoy which may not be a wise move at this time. However, Directorate of Communications of Turkish presidency denied it saying that only one plane landed for refuelling and moved on to designated route. In this age of intense grey zone warfare truth is the biggest casualty. In any case, despite under pressure from PM Sharif, President Erdogan condemned the terror attacks.

The most important partner of Pakistan is its iron-clad friend China which despite its efforts to improve ties with New Delhi would do its best to support Islamabad bilaterally, regionally and internationally. Being an upper riparian state it can play dirty to support Pakistan in the water dispute. It uses its veto and influence at UNSC to prevent and delay designation of Pak based terrorists although overtly it would take an anti-terrorism posture and holy (rather unholy) stance.

This time round Pakistan is also in the UNSC as a non-permanent member hence the tango with China will help twist the narratives which is clearly evident in the discussions and tempering of US initiated draft with regard to terror attacks in J&K. Obfuscation and vocabulary and the jargon of UN drafts, verbosity and adjustments make the statements or resolutions irrelevant and irreverent. It played out last week itself when Beijing helped temper the language of the resolution. After all, Pakistan has emerged as a de facto state of the People’s Republic.  

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An economically weak and highly indebted Pakistan approached Beijing to again beg for $1.4 billion as it prepares to fight India. Long prevailing domestic discontent in these circumstances will recoil on the rulers especially their army and the deep state as soon as the ordinary deprived Pakistanis realise the folly of the jaundiced Generals especially their Army Chief Asim Munir whose vitriolic directed the Pahalgam attacks. India’s wrath will do the trick to raise the ire of disgruntled and disenfranchised Baloch, Pashtuns and Afghans against the Rawalpindi regime. In such a scenario they will be forced to  bite the dust.

Of course, for Pakistan,  China is first and the last refuge of resort for any technology, military equipment, charity or financial assistance pawning its strategic location, autonomy and assets which has become a major cause of discontent among the Pakistanis be it the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) or Beijing’s arbitrariness. Costly and cumbersome CPEC is becoming a white elephant for China when attacks on its personnel becoming frequent.  Strategists in India often refer to the possibility of two or 2.5 front war if we include the errant Bangladeshi regime in the matrix. Preparedness at all times at all fronts including beefing up internal security for India are non-negotiable as the diffused world order evolves amidst several wars and conflicts .

Hence the desperate telecon by Pak Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar to their Chinese Aka ( masters) may have yielded some verbal comfort. Noting the iron-clad friendship and all-weather strategic partnership between China and Pakistan, Wang said China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports its efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. Dar frantically appealed to his Chinese counterpart with a SOS to seek overt assistance, clandestine aid and arms or international diplomatic support flagging their mischievous innocence.

Wang promptly voiced China’s support for a fair and timely investigation into the attacks. He said that conflicts between Pakistan and India do not serve the fundamental interests of each side and also pose a threat to regional peace and stability. Wang also urged both Pakistan and India to exercise restraint, engage in dialogue, and work together to de-escalate tensions and promote stability in the region. On their part they are out to erase the Uyghurs and their cultural identity while will leave no stone unturned to decimate ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) from Afghanistan. Ironically, the Charity begins and stays at home only in their case.

While overtly Beijing will make the noises to look good internationally and help Pakistan in whichever way possible, India will have to foresee and factor the Chinese deception and counter it through its own diplomatic outreach, innovative and proactive strategy and decisive action in a timely manner taking along friends like Russia, Israel and the West, as the pressure for de-escalation will increasingly be mounted by the international community driven by Beijing.

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—The author, Amb. Anil Trigunayat, is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation.