Nuclear armageddon: Putin’s way

Deepak Sinha

A veteran paratrooper and consultant with the Observer Research Foundation, Deepak writes on matters of military and broader security concerns. His blog Para Phrase will seek to unravel issues in the security domain without fear or favour, mainly from a military perspective. 

On 15 February 1978, the legendary boxer Muhammed Ali defended his World Heavyweight title against a relative newcomer, Leon Spinks. Ali was in fine fettle and expected to easily knockout his opponent within the first three rounds. But, his overconfidence was quickly shattered as Spinks gave as good as he got, and more. Going on to win the title, the fastest to do so, in just his eighth professional bout. For those Ali fans who witnessed the bout, it wasn’t so much about Ali’s loss, but about failed expectations, as in round after round Ali was unable to “float like a butterfly, sting like a bee”.

The Russia-Ukraine war seems to be following a similar pattern as the supposedly second most powerful military finds itself on the ropes, against what it had imagined to be a much weaker opponent. It isn’t as if Russia is not used to defeat, but the consequences following them have tended to be horrendous. In Dec1979, Russia’s precursor, the Soviet Union, invaded Afghanistan in a futile attempt to stop Islamic radicalisation from spilling on to its Central Soviet Republics and Chechnya. A decade later, it withdrew in ignominy, defeated and doomed as the Soviet Union splintered just a couple of years later. But, that was history repeating itself, as back in 1904 the Russian and Japanese Empires clashed over their imperial ambitions in Manchuria and Korea. The Russian demand for a neutral buffer zone North of the 39th Parallel was unacceptable to the Japanese and seen as an attempt to curtail their interests on the Asian Continent.
In the ensuing conflict Russia was soundly defeated, including at sea, but refused to heed repeated calls by Japan for a truce and arbitration. The Czar, Nicholas II, remained convinced that Russia could win despite the numerous casualties his military had suffered. Even when hopes of victory receded, he continued the war to avert Russian dignity being damaged by a “humiliating peace”. A peace, subsequently brokered by the United States in September 1905. It resulted in the emergence of Japan as a Great Power and a decline in the Russian Empire’s prestige and influence in Europe. The mortification of having lost and the enormous casualties that had been incurred led widespread domestic protests, finally culminating in the Revolution of 1905 that enormously damaged the prestige of the monarchy. Indeed, just a decade later, in 1917, Nicholas II had to abdicate and was soon executed ending the Romanov line.

History, seems to be repeating itself again, Vladimir Putin, finds his cherished hopes of rebuilding empire rapidly diminishing. The Ukrainian people and the military have shown themselves to be resilient and willing to go to any lengths to defend their homeland. Their military’s counteroffensive, launched in September, has had a spectacular run so far in the Kharkiv Province, and has now turned its attention Southwards. Though, given Russian troop concentrations in the area, its turning out to be a tougher nut to crack.

The Russian military has found itself outmanoeuvred and outfought with its morale touching rock bottom. Its leadership has been found severely wanting, and having suffered humungous casualties has pressured Putin to order an extremely unpopular partial conscription. With poor selection, untrained personnel being sent to the frontlines, and an estimated half a million men of military-age having fled the country to avoid conscription, there is little doubt that conscription is not turning out to be the panacea they had hoped for. All that Putin’s forces seem capable of at the present time is indiscriminate attacks on civilian population centres and infrastructure, especially following the attack on the Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea.

The truth is that such blatantly criminal actions, while causing civilian casualties and immense destruction, will not prevent Russian humiliation militarily, despite Putin’s unprincipled resort to nuclear blackmail. Given his criminal bent and sly mindset, and KGB background, there is little doubt that Putin will avoid any nuclear incident that can be attributed directly to him. That implies he will avoid the use of nuclear munitions, tactical or strategic. However, what is truly worrisome is that as he finds himself increasingly isolated and vulnerable, Putin is capable of engineering a “nuclear accident” at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, which the Russian Army continues to occupy. The Chernobyl incident comes to mind, but the difference is that this plant is six times larger, and a meltdown here will have graver consequences and lead to greater devastation that will impact us all, nuclear Armageddon, but not necessarily the way that President Biden so publicly pointed out.

If this were to happen, what would matter to Putin will not be the devastation that is likely, but that he may be able to pull it off without fingers being pointed at him. This would be much like President Xi’s avoidance of responsibility for not having provided the world with early warning of the spread of the Wuhan Virus that has caused such immense hardship and difficulties universally. It is unlikely that the world economy can sustain another Black Swan event in such rapid succession. Leaders around the world must stand up and make clear to Mr Putin that if such an “accident” were to occur under any circumstances, he would be held to account regardless and face the severest of consequences. That, however unlikely, one can only hope and pray will be deterrence enough.