Kyiv and Russia: A Different Take

By: Ghanshyam Katoch

We have all read a lot about the reasons why the Russians attacked Ukraine. The reason is rooted in history. The common perception is that this is recent history — since after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The fact it that we need to go back much further in history. Kievan Rus was the ancient kingdom confederacy in Eastern and Northern Europe from the late 9th to the mid-13th century. It eventually broke up and Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (which was the heart of this confederacy — evident from the name of its capital Kiev, now Kyiv) are all major components of the old Kievan Rus.

Twice in its history Russia has been attacked from the west. Those wars which in scope were existential threats to Russia had arisen from two countries which are major military powers in NATO. The first was in 1812 when Napoleon marched into Russia and the second was when Hitler invaded in 1941. In these invasions the strategic depth to Moscow was given in the first invasion by the area which is now Belarus, since Napoleon advanced straight for Moscow on a narrow front. In the second invasion in 1941 the strategic depth was given by both Belarus and Ukraine. Russia has learnt its lesson the hard way. It would not want this history to be repeated. Whatever the West does which decreases the strategic space, is believed in the Russian psyche to be an action which will lay Moscow bare to danger by those who mean harm to Russia.

In both the wars besides the military casualties — which were horrendous on both sides — the civilian population suffered even more. The Russian city of Leningrad in its three years siege in World War II saw more civilian deaths due to bombardment and starvation than Dresden, Cologne, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined.

Thus, if we consider Russian insecurity with respect to Ukraine becoming a part of NATO to be rooted in their terrible experiences in both Napoleon’s and Hitler’s invasions, then it is easier to understand why Russia is willing to go to any extent to save and maintain the strategic space which will dissipate in case Ukraine was to become a part of the NATO military alliance.

The preeminent military power in the world is still the United States, the main military force behind NATO. Ukraine being a part of NATO ipso facto means US military in Ukraine which is viewed as an existential threat to Moscow, in the same manner that the United States viewed Soviet missiles in Cuba as an existential threat to it. The presence of US and Canadian trainers in Ukraine ( both countries are part of NATO, and Canada has the world’s third-largest Ukrainian population after Ukraine and Russia) was an obvious red flag which indicated that post Ukrainian membership of NATO, a NATO military presence in Ukraine was most likely. The trainers were hurriedly pulled out in mid February as war clouds loomed.

Because of these reasons, it is quite possible that even if Russia had been led by somebody other than Vladimir Putin, the Russian reaction would still have been the same. This brings us to another equally interesting aspect from history. While both the French and Germans were ultimately unsuccessful, there was another invader who came from the East in the shape of the Mongols who captured vast swathes of territory from the east onwards and decisively defeated Kievan Rus breaking up the kingdom into many parts. Russia would be well advised that the greater threat that may arise to its existence would probably come from the East. We know that China has always been very possessive about territories over which it claims historical lien. India is well aware of this, and so are some others. The Amur Annexation was the annexation of the southeast corner of Siberia by the Russian Empire in relatively recent times (1858–1860) through a series of unequal treaties forced upon the weakened Qing dynasty of China. The Chinese claim to these parts of Russia is much stronger. In times to come, in case China becomes the preeminent world power, there could be a greater threat to the Russian Far East and to the Russian heartland from the east, then it could be from the west.