Jaishankar in Russia: India-Russia ties are stable and steady

At the time when the geopolitical situation at the global level has changed sharply, strong ties between India and Russia are beneficial for both New Delhi and MoscowIndia’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr S Jaishankar paid a somewhat long 5-day visit to Russia from 25th to 29th December, 2023. The duration of the visit is an indication of the range and depth of bilateral partnership in the midst of an increasingly fractious global scenario. The highlight of the visit was the EAM’s meeting with President Putin which is a privilege granted to a very select Foreign Minister. The EAM did not meet Putin during his visit in November, 2022.

Bilateral relations between India and Russia have been on an upward trajectory since 2000 when the two countries signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement during Putin’s first visit to India. It was agreed during the visit to hold annual summits between the two countries, alternately in India and Russia.

Twenty-one annual summits were held from 2000 till 2021. Summits did not take place in 2022 and 2023. However, in the warm and effusive interaction between Putin and EAM Jaishankar on 27th December, the former invited his “dear friend, Prime Minister Modi” to visit Russia in 2024. This invitation was accepted on behalf of PM Modi by the EAM.

The fact that regular summits have been held for most of the period since this highest-level institutional mechanism was put in place is testimony to the high importance that the two countries and leaders attach to the partnership.

Importance of visit

EAM Jaishankar had comprehensive exchange of views with Deputy PM Denis Manturov who co-Chairs, along with Jaishankar, the India-Russia Inter Governmental Commission, and Foreign Minister Lavrov on bilateral cooperation in trade and economy, energy, defense, connectivity, culture, and people to people exchanges. He also shared perspectives on global and regional developments including multilateral cooperation.

Three documents relating to the KudanKulam Nuclear Power Plants, an MoU on cooperation in pharmaceuticals and healthcare, and a Protocol on Foreign Office Consultations were signed during the visit.

India and Russia decided to expand their civilian nuclear cooperation, with Moscow willing to share technology for a small modular reactor which has a power generation capacity of 75MW to 300MW, even as both sides indicated their intention to push towards the completion of Phase 1 the of 6,000MW Kudankulam nuclear power project in Tamil Nadu.

The two sides decided to work resolutely to commission Reactors 3 and 4 while speeding up work on Reactors 5 and 6 at the Kudankulam nuclear project at a time when the US Westinghouse-supported 6,600MW Kovvada nuclear project and the French Areva-supported 9,900 MW Jaitapur nuclear project are stalled over price negotiations.

Jaishankar’s visit to Russia came at a time when Russia assumed the presidency of the BRICS on 1st January, 2024. This development assumes significance in the context of moves to expand its membership with Pakistan having expressed an interest in joining it. It will be India’s endeavor to keep Pakistan out of the grouping for as long as possible. Russia’s cooperation will be helpful in this context.

At the press conference between the two foreign ministers, FM Lavrov said that Russia is “respectful of India’s aspirations” to diversify its sources of defense equipment. He said that Russia is keen to support India’s “Make in India” Initiative to increasingly manufacture defense equipment domestically and that Russia is willing to share its technology for manufacturing modern weaponry in India. It appears that the two countries are looking at future joint ventures in the military systems on the lines of the Brahmos missile and AK-203 rifle projects under the “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) rubric.

Russia supplies nearly 45% of Indian military hardware. The two sides need to firm up spare parts supplies that have been disrupted due to Russia’s war with Ukraine. While three out of five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems have been delivered by Russia to India, the balance is yet to be provided.

Discussions were held between the two sides on increasing the usage of the International North South Transport Corridor as also to operationalize the Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor. In the backdrop of Iran-backed Houthis attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, talks were also held to explore the northern sea polar route through the Arctic Sea.

India-Russia trade ties witnessed an exponential growth in 2022 to US$ 50 billion, principally on the back of increased oil, gas, coking coal and fertilizer imports by India. This is likely to increase further in 2023. The expanding commercial ties have, however, hit a roadblock in the absence of an appropriate and stable payment mechanism for settling accounts. India also needs to increase its exports to Russia. Discussions on long term arrangements for mutual investments and conclusion of a bilateral investment treaty also took place.

During the visit, EAM Jaishankar announced that negotiations on the FTA between the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and India, which had stalled some time ago, will resume in the second half of January, 2024. The FTA when concluded can be expected to give a strong impetus to commercial ties between India and the constituent members of the EEU of which Russia is the most important entity. 

Conclusion

 EAM Jaishankar’s visit to Russia was a huge shot in the arm for India-Russia relations. The two Foreign Ministers have met regularly to keep the relationship on an even keel. During his visit EAM stated that India Russia relations are ‘’very strong, very steady, they are based on our strategic convergence, on our geopolitical interests, and because they are mutually beneficial.’’

Strong ties between India and Russia are beneficial for Russia as they provide it with greater strategic space while navigating its relations with China. Similarly, for India, it is a critical partnership not only because of the legacy defense relationship and import of oil and gas, but also to ensure that China and Russia don’t become enmeshed in an alliance to the detriment of India and the world.

The growing closeness between India and Russia could however pose a challenge to India in taking forward its relations with the West, particularly the US. India has taken a conscious decision that its most consequential partnership is with the US. India will need to ensure that its engagement with Russia does not in any way damage its deepening partnership with the West.

***The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Ananta Aspen Centre; he was the ambassador of India to Kazakhstan Sweden and Latvia;views expressed here are his own