Is the situation changing in favour of Russia in its war against Ukraine?

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

In the event of an impending Russian victory through some kind of breakthrough, would the US and NATO step in to fight the Russians?

The war in Ukraine has sprung back to life over the last few days with activation of the Eastern battlefront in Donbas. Worldwide, the public’s appetite for war, however, seems to have stemmed after the horrific events in both Ukraine and Gaza. The former was largely quiet after the Ukrainian counter offensive in June 2023 which made little headway. Thereafter, the war in Gaza took over ever since October 2023 and held centre stage, pushing Ukraine to the back pages. It was largely presumed that both Russia and Ukraine had suffered heavy casualties and major equipment and weapon losses rendering them ineffective to launch counter offensives of a serious nature. The war was presumably petering out into a stalemate with potential revival being linked to the US elections and its results.

That belief now appears belied, especially in the context of Russia where it was believed that sanctions and embargoes have hamstrung the war effort. Yet, in late February 2024, in a sudden turnaround the Russian forces are reported to have broken the back of the Ukrainian defensive position at the town of Avdiivka, 15 kilometres North West of Donetsk which is one of the biggest cities in the Donbas region which Russia controls. Although media reports highlight Russian breakthroughs at several points on the battlefront, yet nothing can yet be taken at face value; we have witnessed these situations in the past with claims of both warring nations. Built-up areas exist along the next potential battleline to be militarily exploited by the defender. This war has been all about positional defence based upon built up areas which require a huge quantity of artillery and other explosive materials to reduce and capture. It’s infantry which changes everything here.You May LikeLet us help them by feeding them on your behalfThaagam FoundationClick Here  by TaboolaSponsored Links

In the US, a $60 billion package for Ukraine has been sought by the Biden administration from Congress and is politically contested with bipartisan differences. The sudden surge in information from the Ukraine war front is also being linked to the need for sensitisation of the US political community and the public, on the urgency to act lest the entire effort of NATO goes waste with a potential Russian victory. Therefore, one cannot apply high credibility to reports flowing in of a large-scale Russian breakthrough; one which can spell an operational victory. Thus far the Western media had spelt doom for Russia; a sudden change of reporting patterns always elicit suspicion.
One needs an application of mind to arrive at a realistic assessment; military understanding of course makes a big difference.Advertisement

What could be the reality? According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the US has thus far donated $73 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Europe’s contribution has been $81 billion with $29 billion being military aid. More aid is in the pipeline although European countries have not shifted into a war mode for manufacture of warlike material, including ammunition and missiles. A severe shortage of ammunition is being felt at the battlefield by Ukraine. Recall the crash sale last year of $600 million worth of ammunition by Pakistan to Ukraine at the behest of the US. It got Pakistan the reprieve that it sorely needed from the IMF for disbursement of a much-needed pre-approved loan.Advertisement

The war in Ukraine has been one of positional battles with very little manoeuver. It has entailed huge casualties and an alarming expenditure of ammunition and missiles. That is normally so when defensive positions are all based upon large built-up areas along a front. Limited efforts have been made to penetrate flanks due to the plethora of villages which dot the countryside in the vicinity of towns and cities. They act as excellent screen positions and are again difficult to penetrate. After the recent reported breakthrough at Avdiivka (population 33,000) the Russians are now attempting to capture the adjoining villages to enlarge the penetration. The Russian Army had similarly captured Bakhmut in a slogging match almost nine months ago. However, it has shown no intent of trying to manoeuver behind the defences in order to cut off supply lines. The battles remain essentially a mix of missiles, gun fire and infantry assaults.Advertisement

The Russian war machinery, rusty after the Cold War, has also not been able to keep pace with ammunition expenditure and even with the high attrition in human resources. As an example of support that it has received its pertinent that in the six months between October 2022 and April 2023, “cargo ships have carried more than 300,000 artillery shells and a million rounds of ammunition from Iran to Russia” across the Caspian Sea. Best known are reconnaissance and attack drones, and surface-to-surface missiles Iran has provided Russian forces, which have been used to attack not only military objectives but also civilian targets. That has been a huge strategic advantage to Russia. Its own population areas are away from the battlefront while it has the virtual liberty to target Ukraine’s cities, destroy its infrastructure and lay waste its agriculture thus ruining its economy and psychologically demoralizing the population.Advertisement

There have been several efforts to label Russia a violator of international humanitarian law. These were also various efforts by NATO led by the US to label Russia and its allies such as Iran and North Korea as pariahs in the international system. Now after the death of 30,000 civilians in Gaza in an Israeli bombing campaign diplomatically supported by the US, there appears no moral high ground to occupy with respect to the Ukraine war.Advertisement

The interesting issue arising at this juncture is the same which occupied analyses in the early part of this war. In the event of an impending Russian victory through some kind of breakthrough, would the US and NATO step in to fight the Russians? Would Russian president Vladimir Putin wish to exploit success? Would he be satisfied with the occupation of the entire Donbas and pursue no further agenda except to secure that border? How would NATO react to an attack on any of the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of whom are now members of NATO; would the clause of attack on one being treated as an attack on NATO, be invoked? These questions yet remain hypothetical.Advertisement

A Russian victory, even after the fall of the Ukrainian frontline, is no guarantee. It’s a contest of the supply lines; the NATO ability to sustain the Ukrainian resistance should ordinarily outpace the Iranian and North Korean ones but only if production is ratcheted to wartime levels. Otherwise, Iran and North Korea are well geared to sustain the supply. As far as China is concerned, it has continuously denied supplying any warlike stores to Russia. However, the purchase of Russian energy by both China and India has propped up the Russian economy. Sophisticated components of some Russian manufactured weapons and equipment have been supplied by China which will continue. The latest in the equations of supply of munitions and warlike stores is a reported Israeli readiness to supply arms to Ukraine to prevent any breakdown. This includes components of the Iron Dome Anti-Aircraft and Anti-Missile system.Advertisement

The final issue. If this war continues in stalemate conditions till the US elections and should there be a Trump return, it can be visualised how he would turn his back on Ukraine. Is Europe prepared for that contingency and is Putin waiting for that to happen? He may well wish to keep his reserves for some battles in that unpredictable situation. This war is not likely to end soon and maybe not even later; it may just fester as any other long war.Advertisement

The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.