Interview of Major General (Dr) S B Asthana,SM,VSM,PhD by Foreign Policy Research Centre on Indian Foreign Policy

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana, SM,VSM,PhD

Sharing an interview of mine on Indian Foreign Policy conducted by Foreign Policy Research Centre with Focus on “India’s Foreign Policy (2014-2024)“, published in FPRC JOURNAL (J-57) 2024 (1), ISSN 2277 – 2464. Interview highlights:-

Has global perception of India changed? Impact of past on future of Indo-US relations? How Russia’s closeness to China impacts Indo-Russian relations? India- China Competition. Any change in Indian Neighbourhood Policy?

Interview of Major General (Dr) S B Asthana,SM,VSM,PhD by Foreign Policy Research Centre

FPRC

India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar says : “Our status in the world has increased. No major issue is decided without consultation with India. We have changed and the world’s perception of us has changed.” Do you  agree ?

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

I agree that India the status has grown appreciably in all domains of national power in the recent times.  The status of a country is judged by its ‘Comprehensive National Power’ which is a combination of its economic, military, diplomatic, technology power as well as the human resource power. India in last decade jumped five spots in GDP terms to become the fifth largest economy in the world and is on the trajectory to become the third largest economy by 2030, therefore India’s economic clout has grown to an extent that it is very well noticed by the entire world. India over took Hong Kong as investment destination which indicates that the power of India to attract FDI has increased. The rules, regulations and infrastructure to improve the business/investment climate seems to be improving at a much faster rate than expected by other world players.

In terms of military capabilities India is well recognised as a potent force capable of standing up to any military force in the world, known for battle hardened soldiers capable of fighting in any in any terrain. It’s improving in terms of indigenous defence manufacturing capability of military hardware and software to overcome external dependencies by variety of means to include foreign collaborations, inclusion of private industry and transfer of technology measures. India’s position as one of the strongest militaries in the world is justified by its operational readiness and series of military successes in last six decades.

On technology front Indian scientists have shown great examples of innovations and technological prowess. ISRO has been on the fore front of Indian technological  progress with series of successful space launches of various categories.  The launch of Chandrayan3 at a cost less than a Hollywood movie has demonstrated how space missions can be launched with minimum cost by India. Indian digital payment system has created unprecedented records with more than 40 percent global digital financial transactions happening in India. India’s UPI payment system is being replicated globally and been seen as a potential challenger to other forms of digital financial connectivity tools like SWIFT in long term.

The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a fantastic example of how effective Indian diplomacy has been in managing positive ties with both sides while still looking after its own interests. The fact that India unexpectedly pulled a joint statement from opposing lobbies during the G20 last year is evidence of the country’s growing diplomatic influence. India managing a successful inclusion of African Union into G20, demonstrated its emergence as the voice of the Global South.

India has the largest, youngest, English speaking man manpower in the world which is likely to give India an edge over its competitors. The demographic dividend of India is well recognised by the entire world with great achievements of Indian diaspora.  It provides India a significant influence as well as leverage in a manner that in a number of democracy is in the western countries, Indians have to be taken into account for their elections.

Considering all the factors above, India is rising and the world can no longer ignore it.

FPRC

“As a rising India and a consolidating US meet to create a new normal in bilateral ties, the past will no longer tarnish the future.” (Gautam Chikermane –ORF). Do you agree  ?

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

I partially agree with the statement. Today India and United States have a common threat in terms of China and the Chinese aggressiveness is bringing both countries together. The past between India and United States has not seen the best of relations as United States was seen to be favouring the military dictatorship in Pakistan, contrary to Indian interest as well as appeared on the opposite side during 1971 war favouring a military involved in genocide in East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh).

It is seen in international affairs that nothing is permanent except the national interest. In that context today India’s interest are largely converging with United States in terms of rule based order in Indo Pacific region. Therefore, it is fair to assume that India and United States will steer the relationship towards comprehensive global strategic partnership and common groupings like Quad and G20.

There is also realisation that in past USA did not give cutting edge technology to India earlier, therefore India had to overly depend on Russia for military hardware and technology.  This status seems to be changing with signing of a large number of foundational agreements like COMCASA, BECA, iCET etc to facilitate technology transfer to India, it is happening in many fields. Joint exercises and sharing of intelligence are ongoing visible cooperative moves to demonstrate growing strategic partnership.

However as India growth stronger, USA would like to ensure that it does not repeat the same mistake as it did which China while facilitating their growth to checkmate USSR and landing up with the strongest competitor. This is a major reason for occasional criticism of India by USA to keep India under check. Many strategists in USA feel that China is a challenge today and India could be a challenge few decades later.

FPRC

Do you believe that Putin’s acceleration closer to China makes India-Russia going down from being a very high-value strategic partnership to a transactional one?

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

There is no doubt that Russian dependency on China has increased because of Russia Ukraine war and the entire Western world ganging up against Russia. In that context China and Russia have entered into a ‘No Limit Partnership’ but this partnership has limits as is evident from Chinese limited support during the war with Ukraine supported by the West. Further Chinese will never like to lose the Western market which is the cornerstone of their economy and therefore will not go for outright support of Russia in the war.

China has many disagreements with Russia which are of permanent nature like increasing its influence on CAR countries at the cost of Russia, boundary disputes, Chinese greed for increasing encroachment in Arctic region, which has been traditionally backyard of Russia. Today Russia would prefer China over India due to its over dependency, but in the long term being the next door neighbour this relationship may not be at the same level permanently.

Historically it is seen that India Russia relationship has always been most stable and permanent one, whereas any other relationships of Russia with any other country has seen fair amount of ups and downs. India needs a tacit support of a P5 member to face some awkwardness at UNSC and its reliance in this context is maximum on Russia. Considering these factors it is fair to assume that India Russia relationship may have some limitations vis a vis China in near term, but will remain a permanent stable relationship.

FPRC

How do you look at the competitive nature  between the two Asian giants, India and China?

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

The relationship between India and China is complex as well as difficult. China is India’s neighbour is a geographical fact which nobody can change. India is the only country in the world which has two belligerent neighbours (China and Pakistan), with whom it has unsettled borders, both are nuclear powers and both are colluding with each other. India therefore has to navigate its strategic choices to cater for this collusion.

China and India are competing for strategic space specially in South Asia, which will continue. China also has expansionist design and wants to dominate Indian Ocean to secure its maritime lines of communication towards Gulf and Africa. In that context it is following ‘String of Pearls’ strategy to establish military and logistics bases and increasingly gain foothold in as many countries along the route to protect its Maritime interests. I certainly see Indian Ocean as one of the areas of likely aggressive competition or occasional contestation.

China is also following ‘Strategy of Incremental Encroachment’ as part of ‘Active Defence Strategy’ to grab more land on continental borders, against which India is responding appropriately but this standoff and contestation is making the relationship difficult, as Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has been saying that ‘Relationship cannot be normal unless the borders are normal’. India has done mirror deployment along LAC to prevent encroachment into Indian territory and continues its capacity building, force structuring and infrastructure development to meet challenges posed by China.

Despite the contestation along land and maritime borders India is dependent on Chinese imports and its supply chain for many of its industries and raw material. In that context operating with China has become a necessity, despite the differences on borders. In near term, therefore, the relationship with China will continue to be of competition, cooperation and occasional contestation at the same time.

Internationally, Chinese aggressive stance has pushed India towards United States. Chinese two front threat against India has been a major factor to develop strategic partnership with western countries, and join up groupings  like Quad, to be able to be take on multiple challenges from China in non-kinetic warfare domains like technology, cyber, alternate supply chain to name a few. Chinese threat is a major factor for India to push for alternate supply chain for raw materials and self-reliance in consumer goods  to avoid Chinese coercion in commercial and digital domain. As both countries are aspiring powers, I do not visualise any let up in competition between China and India.

FPRC

Has India’s Neighbourhood Policy undergone change during 2014-2024?

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

India’s neighbourhood policy has seen a significant change in last decade. While India observes a ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, but against Pakistan it has been quite firm on a policy of having no talks unless Pakistan stops sponsoring terrorism and has firmly observed it. It is seen that this policy has worked, considering the current grave economic, political and security situation of Pakistan. Occasional terror incidents have also been appropriately responded to drive a lesson to the terrorists based in Pakistan.

In context of other neighbours India has been extremely helpful and accommodative to their interests to build a healthy relationship. While some of Indian neighbours have fallen prey to the debt  trap of  China and it’s BRI project, but examples of they being abandoned by China during crisis (like the case of Sri Lanka), with India providing helping hand, has improved Indian image substantially. There is a need to realise that all are neighbours are sovereign countries and will make sovereign choices to get the best of China and India, in their National interest. India will there for have to navigate its relationship to ensure that its own security interests are met, making best use of geographical  proximity and related advantages.

India has demonstrated tremendous resilience and maturity in dealing with certain countries like Maldives, occasionally acting against Indian interest, and has help them for long term relationship,  which seems to be working in Indian interest. I am sure India will like to continue with similar policy in future too.

Major General (Dr) S B Asthana

(The views expressed in answers to questions are my personal views). I can be reached at Facebook and LinkedIn as Shashi Asthana, @asthana_shashi on twitter, and personnel site https://asthanawrites.org/ email shashiasthana29@gmail.com LinkedIn Profile www.linkedin.com/in/shashi-asthana-4b3801a6