Indonesian Elections 2024: President Jokowi’s legacy hangs in balance as three contenders vie for power

This is a seminal election for Indonesia because President Joko Widodo’s second term, who is popularly known as Jokowi, concludes in 2024

Gurjit Singh

Indonesian elections have formally got underway. The campaigning period will run for 75 days till the polls take place on 14 February 2024.

This is a seminal election for Indonesia because President Joko Widodo’s second term, who is popularly known as Jokowi, concludes in 2024. As per the Indonesian constitution, a president can have only two terms. Jokowi had replaced former General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party, who had had two terms. Between them, Indonesia has had stability, continuity and elements of change.

What the 2024 election brings is a major change because now there will be a new president, which in itself brings in a whole cohort of new leadership and caucuses. Besides the presidency, a new Parliament would be elected, as well as provincial and regional assemblies since now, Indonesia elects all its levels congruently.

Jokowi was the candidate of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (Indonesian: Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, PDI-P) led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s father of independence Sukarno. It was Jokowi’s charisma and the PDIP’s political strength and alliances which brought Jokowi to power for two terms, during which Jokowi marshalled almost all the political parties in Parliament to come behind him.

His biggest success was that his rival in both elections, General Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra party was brought in as the defence minister in his second term. And therein lies the rub.

This election is contested by three sets of candidates. The PDIP nominated Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as their candidate. He is a staunch party loyalist with Mahfud MD as his running mate. Mahfud is the current coordinating minister for security and a vice president in waiting for some time. He has been the chief justice of the Constitutional Court of Indonesia.You May LikeSmart ManufacturingMitsubishi ElectricLearn More  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

The main challenge comes from the current defence minister Prabowo. He has built a partnership with Jokowi since losing in the last election. He accepted Jokowi’s elder son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice-presidential nominee, and therein lies another tale.

The third candidate is Jokowi’s former education minister and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. His vice-presidential candidate is Muhaimin Iskander, Deputy Speaker and the chairman of the Muslim-based National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa PKB).

Anies though a liberal educationist, realises there is an untapped Muslim-Islamic identity which can bring in votes. He tapped into this earlier in his gubernatorial election. Now he seeks to expand its use.

Typically, on 14 February, 2024, the third largest democracy in the world, Indonesia, would have a choice of three presidential candidates and their running mates. A winner requires 50 per cent plus popular vote and 20 per cent of the votes in half of Indonesia’s 38 provinces. If that does not happen, then the top two candidates will go for a runoff election, eliminating the third candidate. The redistribution of the third candidate’s votes in a run-off election makes the difference between winning and losing.

Opinion polls at the start of the campaigning period showed Prabowo in the lead with 40.6 per cent in an Indikator Politik Indonesia poll. While 27.8 per cent back the ruling party’s Ganjar who in October was running equally with Prabowo but seems to have lost ground. Anies Baswedan is in third place with 23.7 per cent.

In this election, 205 million, out of Indonesia’s population of 273 million are eligible voters. There is no major difference between the poll platforms of Ganjar and Prabowo because they essentially belong to the same government for now.

However, their ambitions differ. Whether it is economics, or international relations both essentially want to continue Jokowi’s legacy. Anies tries to tap into a segment which he believes is untended and therefore talks of a value-based foreign policy, welfare-based economics with Islamic tinges.

The question essentially boils down to who is going to hold Jokowi’s legacy.

This question is important because when the PDIP leadership announced Ganjar as the candidate Jokowi was not present on the occasion. Whether he was surprised by the decision, or consulted is not known, but his absence was clear. Ganjar is beholden to the PDIP leadership, whereas Jokowi was essentially drafted by the PDP in 2014 due to his charisma. The PDIP now wants a stronger party man.

So where does that leave Jokowi’s legacy which the PDIP does not directly own? They nurture the Soekarno legacy already. The suspicion is that Jokowi wants Prabowo to nurse the Jokowi legacy. Pronouncements of Prabowo show respect for Jokowi’s ideas.

Prabowo took a grave political risk at a time when he was getting more popular and accepted Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Raka as his vice-presidential nominee. The suspicion that Jokowi was building not only a legacy, but a dynasty now became evident.

There was considerable manipulation to get to this point because Gibran is only 36 years old and did not meet the 40-year threshold for nomination. A decision was taken to the Constitutional Court, which allowed an amendment that did not reduce the age but said that if a person had held elected office, he could be considered for higher office, even if he was not 40 years old. This allowed Gibran, the elected Mayor of Surakarta, to be nominated as Prabowo’s running mate.

On 16 October, Chief Justice Anwar Usman of the Constitutional Court gave this decision. The court was set up by Megawati and was meant to protect the Constitution from political depredations. Usman is Jokowi’s brother-in-law and after this decision, he faced a rebuke from other judges who felt that he had violated his independence and taken a decision to favour his family. Usman was removed as head of the Constitutional Court but remains a judge. The decision to allow Gibran to contest was not revoked.

Therefore, the angst about how the system was manipulated by Jokowi’s family to favour his son seems to have exploded and then expended by the action in the Constitutional Court. The dip in Prabowo’s popularity at that point is now reversed. The Prabowo-Gibran ticket is leading the pack as the election scene warms up across Indonesia.

The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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