India-China military talks today: Hot Springs resolution likely, but Beijing’s actions may impede progress

By: Major General (Retd) Ashok Kumar

After 13 rounds of talks and little progress, both nations are back on the negotiation table once again on Wednesday

Given growing opposition in Taiwan, China may be more accommodating this time.

If Hot Springs issue is resolved, it will be a good start to discuss pending issues.

Both India and China carry historical baggage as far as boundary delineation is concerned. While India inherited its borders from the British on attaining freedom on August 15, 1947, and China inherited theirs from the Republic of China (present-day Taiwan) on October 1, 1949, the status of Tibet remained disputed in some way from being a vassal state of China to an independent nation.

China finally annexed Tibet in the 1950s and our later acceptance of it being a part of China has probably changed the narrative forever. At least, that is what it seems now.

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Our claim in Tibet, taking its authority from the Johnson line of 1865, and the Chinese claim on Aksai Chin from MacDonald line of 1899, could not be resolved even after the 1959 proposal of China, despite conflict not being limited only to Ladakh. Finally, 1962 happened which is part of history now.

In its wake, while the larger issue of Aksai Chin has been left unresolved, it has left multiple areas of differing perception/stance on Line of Actual Control (LAC) as well. The number of patrolling points (PPs as they are known) have been identified by India to continue patrolling for the continued assertion of claims on LAC but there have been conflicts between opposing forces of India and China from time to time. So far these were largely resolved amicably either by local-level talks between armed forces or by political dialogue between the two nations. The current stand-off from April 2020, however, is entirely different.

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In a sudden move, Chinese troops were found occupying those areas which they were not holding physically prior to April 2020. They had developed infrastructure not seen earlier besides being more aggressive during interactions. There was increased mobilisation from both sides. The worst happened during the Galwan clash wherein we lost the CO of an infantry battalion along with 20 soldiers while the Chinese probably lost more than 40 soldiers. While no rounds were fired, anti-riot control lethal weapons were used by the Chinese. This event has become a watershed moment and will continue in the same way in the times to come.

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On seeing Chinese troops digging heels on the northern Bank of Pangong So, the Indian Army carried out a masterstroke by occupying Kailash ranges on the southern ridge of the lake. This event forced the Chinese to come to the negotiating table.

India has continued its efforts via diplomatic channels through Defense Minister and External Affairs Minister besides government officials, but the advantageous position gave the real traction to impress upon China to come to the negotiating table not only as a process but also as a product. The government of India has done well to entrust these discussions to local military commanders. They have succeeded to de-escalate the situation on North & South of Pangong So, Galwan valley and Gogra but the issue of Hot Springs and Depsang Plains remain besides differences of Demchok.

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Now both nations are back on the negotiation table for the 14th round of talks at the Corps Commander Level meeting.

India attempted to resolve all issues of incursions as a package but that did not happen. India then adopted a more flexible approach to move progressively, albeit on the hope that with the vacation of Kailash Range, the Chinese will also be forthcoming to resolve the pending issues.

Reasonable progress took place till the 12th Corps Commander Level meeting and it was hoped that all pending issues will be settled during the 13th Corps Commander level meet which failed in totality on October 21 last year. Due to sustained effort, the 14th Corps Commander level meeting is scheduled for 12 January, 2022 and its outcome is anxiously awaited.

Seeing the contours of views of China, it is hoped that the issue of Hot Springs will get resolved but nothing much may happen on Depsang Plains unless some Track 2 effort has already been made to de-escalate the conflict.

Even if Hot Springs issue is resolved, it will be a good start to discuss pending issues besides establishing fair alignment of LAC.

Given growing opposition in Taiwan, China may demonstrate a accommodating stance this time. However, Chinese actions are unpredictable and have the potential of taking the talks to ‘nowhere’ yet again.

(The writer is a Visiting Fellow, Centre For Land Warfare Studies and specialises in India’s neighbouring countries)