India and China restore 2020 LAC status: What’s next after the border breakthrough?

The LAC standoff, which began in May 2020, saw Chinese troops make multiple transgressions in Eastern Ladakh, changing the status quo and escalating tensions.

Written by Huma Siddiqui

Indian and Chinese soldiers will resume patrolling the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as they had been doing before the border face-off began in May 2020. The breakthrough, confirmed by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar at an event in New Delhi on October 21, 2024, marks a significant step toward disengagement and resolution of tensions between the two nations. Jaishankar noted, “We reached an agreement on patrolling, and we have gone back to the 2020 position. With that, we can say the disengagement with China has been completed. Details will come out in due course.”

This development follows an earlier announcement by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who revealed that India and China had finalized a patrolling arrangement along the LAC,  an area that has been a flashpoint for tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. This agreement, according to Jaishankar, is a product of “patient and persevering diplomacy” and arrives just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia for the BRICS summit in Kazan starting today.

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The LAC standoff, which began in May 2020, saw Chinese troops make multiple transgressions in Eastern Ladakh, changing the status quo and escalating tensions. As Jaishankar pointed out, the agreement to restore patrolling to pre-2020 levels is a critical step in resolving these long-standing issues. “There are areas which, for various reasons after 2020, they blocked us, we blocked them. We have now reached an understanding which will allow patrolling as we had been doing till 2020,” Jaishankar explained. The minister’s remarks underscore the significance of the breakthrough, which he attributed to sustained diplomatic efforts.

The Military Perspective

In an exclusive interview with Financial Express Online, Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd), a Kargil War veteran, Director General, CENTRE FOR JOINT WARFARE STUDIES (CENJOWS) provided an in-depth analysis of the situation. “China had made transgressions in multiple locations across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh, changing the status quo that existed in April-May 2020, which has continued for more than four years,” Kumar explained. He emphasized that while many of these friction points had been resolved through diplomatic and military dialogues, two major transgressions in the Depsang plains and Demchok remained unresolved.

Kumar also highlighted the strategic implications of these unresolved transgressions. “These were large-scale transgressions having strategic implications,” he said, adding that the period of the standoff witnessed significant military mobilization from both sides, with over 50,000 troops stationed along the LAC, along with advanced firepower and warlike stores.

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The standoff between India and China reached a violent peak in June 2020 with the Galwan Valley clash, during which India lost 20 soldiers, including a commanding officer. While the casualties on the Chinese side remain unconfirmed, Kumar noted, “The casualties on the Chinese side were probably much larger, but its authentic quantification could not be ascertained to date.”

Despite the initial tensions, there were positive signals from both sides over time, according to Kumar. “Chinese officials had indicated that 75% of the issues had been resolved, with only a few remaining,” he said. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) of India, during the Curtain Raiser event of the Chanakya Dialogue, also hinted at potential forward movement on the issue, pointing to the role of military-to-military communication in translating diplomatic decisions into action on the ground.

What Does the Agreement Mean?

While the specifics of the agreement have yet to be fully revealed, Maj Gen Kumar outlined several key questions that remain unanswered. “It is not yet known whether these patrolling rights have been restored only in Depsang and Demchok or all along the LAC,” he said. Another uncertainty is the future of buffer zones, which had been established at several locations where transgressions were resolved. “Besides the issue of patrolling, there are other multiple issues which require resolution to maintain the status quo as it existed in April-May 2020,” Kumar added.

He also raised an important point regarding China’s motives in agreeing to the restoration of the 2020 status quo. “If China has agreed to maintain the status quo, the mute issue comes up as to what has been achieved by China over these four years,” he remarked. This could indicate that China is feeling pressure from external or internal factors, leading to its more accommodating stance. However, he warned that the agreement could also be a prelude to China’s potential misadventures against Taiwan, aiming to free itself from any distractions on the Indian front.

Looking Ahead

As both nations prepare to resume patrolling along the LAC, the broader implications of this agreement remain to be seen. While Jaishankar’s announcement marks a significant diplomatic win for India, experts like Maj Gen Kumar urge caution, as the details of the agreement and China’s true intentions will only become clear in the coming months.

The breakthrough comes at a critical time, as India gears up for Prime Minister Modi’s participation in the BRICS summit in Russia. The resolution of the LAC issue, even if partial, is likely to strengthen India’s position on the global stage, especially as it seeks to balance its relations with major powers like Russia and China.

In the words of Maj Gen Kumar, “The granular details of the agreement will help to unfold the real motive.” For now, India can take a measured victory in the return to the 2020 status quo, but the future of India-China relations remains uncertain.