HTS’ political transition and the future of Syria

Anil Trigunayat

The new syrian leadership has sought peace in the region with all countries, but its problems with Israel and Iran could confound into conflagration
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa Mohammed al-Jolani, seems to have converted it, at least overtly, into a high-profile, tactical, pragmatic, and smart diplomacy-driven group since December 8, when, with tremendous alacrity, ease, and speed, it deposed the half-century-old decrepit Assad regime, forcing president Bashar al-Assad to take refuge in Russia—its sole benefactor of consequence.

Jolani not only changed his attire into fine Western outfits but also indulged in smart diplomacy and ear-pleasing statements for the Western powers like the UK and US, who have been banking on him and hankering for regime change in Syria since the Arab Spring days.

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The number of Western leaders, as well as other important partners and supporters of HTS, has descended on Damascus to show support for the new regime while hoping to plug in their own agendas and ideological narratives at this early stage in return for certain specific relief to the HTS, which has been designated as the terror entity by the UN and the West. With a spate of interactions, some of the benefits have begun to trickle down. The US, after the visit of Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf, promised other assistance, including the removal of sanctions in a phased manner. Monitors love to think that they can keep the straight line going.

The European Union also got equally optimistic urging for human rights, especially gender inequality, since the HTS, in its governed area of Idlib in the northwest of Syria, is known to have imposed strict Islamic conservative traditions, especially where women are concerned. Men, mostly their fighters, do believe in that socio-economic imperative, and hence whether they will be on board with their leadership’s changed public posturing remains to be seen. French and German foreign ministers also dashed, and despite the handshake denial to the female German minister by Sharaa, they seemed quite hopeful of his pragmatism as the West promised to watch their actions on the ground going forward while easing sanctions and providing assistance to the new rulers as a carrot. Leader al-Sharaa did not disappoint as he appointed two women to high positions, including the first governor of the Central Bank of Syria.

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As has been broadly concluded, Turkey has been the biggest strategic gainer in this geopolitical turmoil, and very quickly it sent its intelligence chief to confer on strategies and further support in stabilising Syria. More importantly, the presence of the Kurdish fighters and independence-demanding The People’s Defence Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighter groups has been the biggest headache for the Turkish leadership despite their constant bombing campaign. Besides, they form the critical part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is patronised by the Americans as part of their regional and anti-ISIS strategy, where they fought alongside while maintaining a constant threat for the Assad regime all these years.

The US also increased its physical military presence from 900 to 2,000 and attacked a number of ISIS hideouts, which is taking a rebirth in the Levant yet again. A legitimate concern about Jolani and his hardline forces is their reincarnation and overt detachment from the ISIS and Al Qaeda ideologies as a strategic move to garner western legitimacy. The US holds the powerful cards of lifting the sanctions under Caesar’s Act as well as removing the terrorist tag from the HTS, which are strong levers to keep the new rulers under check for which it will seek full cooperation in its war against ISIS.

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Although Secretary Antony Blinken rushed to meet Turkish FM Hakan Fidan as the fighting between Turkey’s own forces and its ally Syrian National Army (SNA) against the US-backed SDF continues unabated, bringing the US and Turkey—the NATO partners—in direct challenge against the other. This accommodation will be quite difficult to achieve as the aspirations of the Kurdish people in the region are very strong for autonomy and independence and have also been used as a diplomatic tool by some Western powers against Ankara and Damascus at different times.

Russians, preoccupied with their war with Ukraine and the West, do not have enough manoeuvrability but are hoping to retain their bases in Tartous and Latakia on the Mediterranean, which provided them sole strategic access in the region for their interests in Africa. They probably are counting on their frenemy Turkey for that while transferring most of the assets to their bases in Libya. The US and the West, of course, would prevail on the new regime not to concede. Jolani has, of course, stated that he would like to retain good relations with Moscow, which has historic military and cultural affinity with Syrian people and armed forces.

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The new leadership has claimed to want peace in the region with all countries, but its problems with Israel and Iran could confound into conflagration. HTS stands for and supports the Palestinian cause, and there is no letup there, and it is sanguine about its own sovereignty and territorial integrity, and hence continued aggression and violation of territorial sovereignty and occupation of the Golan Heights rich in water by Israel has the potential to incinerate the conflict and even acts as a uniting panacea for all patriotic groups and people in the country. But stability through economic well-being seems to be the current strategy for the new regime. For the time being, Israel has secured itself on the Levant front. But for how long it will be remains an open question.

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Tehran has lost its sheen and its asymmetric advantage due to the depletion of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and with the decimation of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the demise of the Assad regime. There is a significant Shia population in the country, including places of their worship, whose security remains a key concern. While Iran maintained its embassy, which was also attacked in the wake of turmoil, the vitriolic exchanges and statements leave no doubt that retrieving the relationship will be a major challenge for Iran. But it may not give up. Information warfare will be rejuvenated, creating some challenges for the new regime. Jolani has warned that normal diplomatic relations may continue, but non-interference in their internal affairs is the key.

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The fact that the first foreign visit by the HTS-Syrian Foreign Minister, Assad al-Shaibani, accompanied by the defence minister and the intelligence chief, was to Saudi Arabia, which will be followed by Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan, indicates the new regime’s relative preference in the region. He tweeted (X), “We look forward to these visits contributing to supporting the stability and security, the economic recovery, and building distinguished partnerships“. In Riyadh, after meeting his Saudi counterpart, he assured, “Through our visit, we conveyed our national vision of establishing a government based on partnership and efficiency that includes all Syrian components and working to launch an economic development plan that opens the way for investment, establishes strategic partnerships, and improves living and service conditions.”

In fact, Qatar was quick to reopen its embassy, and its MoS for foreign affairs visited Damascus immediately, offering all assistance. It means that the exceptional financial and other humanitarian support Syria can receive from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is the major priority, while the continued participation in the Arab League and other regional institutions will render the requisite legitimacy in the Arab world to the new regime.

Economically deprived, disgruntled, and disenfranchised Syrians need to be provided with dignity, financial comfort, and hope in the future, which can come only from the regional and international majors. The US still controls the Syrian oil fields and revenue, which needs to be made available to any regime. If it has to succeed, nearly 13 million internally displaced refugees in Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon are wanting to return to their country. Lifting of the sanctions by the West remains a major priority, while trying to keep the pack together will not be an easy challenge since several of the militia groups that fought to oust Assad have not yet agreed to be part of the recognised forces proposed by Jolani.

Political transitions are always fraught with hope and despair, but a lot depends on how the geopolitics of the times deliver or restrict the stabilisation in a particular country, and Syria is no exception. With initial euphoria out of the way, the complex socio-economic reality of the beleaguered Syria would want much more than a statement of intent either from the new rulers or its current and past benefactors.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.