How Trump-Putin bonhomie can shape Iranian nuclear deal’s fate
- April 28, 2025
- Posted by: Anil Trigunayat
- Categories: Iran, Middle East, West Asia
Whether we like it or not, President Donald Trump has remained invested in the Middle East/West Asia during both his terms. In fact, in his first term, one of the major success stories was bringing about diplomatic rapprochement between Israel and some Arab countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan; however, the one-and-a-half-year-old Israel-Hamas war did have an impact on this, but the chance for future development remains.
Last time also he started off with the very first visit to Saudi Arabia, and this time as well his target is to bring about formal diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, for which he enforced a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war before he entered the White House the second time. His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been consistently working on the extension of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
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President Trump’s googly of taking over Gaza energised the Arabs led by Saudi Arabia, who, while pro forma condemning the insensitive intent, took a clear line of commitment against the displacement of Gazans and its reconstruction with $53 billion, which is close to the UN estimates of $50 billion. West Asia surprises with an unimpeded frequency, and so does Trump.
One of the key disruptions, in keeping with his first-term pre-election rhetoric, was to junk the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, which he did with great alacrity—ironically allowing the Iranians to go back on the enrichment levels and creating more worries for the Israelis whose strategic nuclear edge he wished to protect.
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But four years of interregnum have perhaps given him a better way of renegotiating to avoid nuclear proliferation by the Islamic Republic, which is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear (NPT). If Iran becomes nuclear, the race to the bottom in the Middle East will start. Tehran is also trying to use the nuclearisation card as a negotiating tool for getting into the mainstream and to secure the removal of decades-long crippling sanctions in return.
The Iranian ambassador to the UN has been talking to the Trump team as well as with Elon Musk to stay engaged. There is a readiness on both sides to get into negotiations with other stakeholders, of course, with certain caveats, which will be difficult to comply with.
After the October 7 attacks and ensuing war in the Middle East, Iranian proxies in Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, as well as Islamic militias in Iraq, have had a kinetic engagement leading to the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah—Iranian strategic arms. This also was evident in the developments in Syria with the ouster of President Bashar Al Assad. For the first time, Tehran and Tel Aviv also engaged in direct attacks and counterattacks, which were indecisive but possibly in favour of Israel.
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No wonder Benjamin Netanyahu wishes to halt the Iranian nuclear quest at any cost and has often threatened to directly attack the Iranian nuclear installation but was stopped by the Americans to prevent greater escalation of the regional conflict. Clandestine operations continue apace by both sides, who suffer from the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Syndrome.
On the other hand, seeing the plight of the Ukrainians, the Iranian regime would be inclined to choose nuclear deterrence over détente until and unless some kind of nuclear umbrella by its strategic partners is assured. And this is where its recent agreement with Russia and the talks between Russia and Iran in Beijing are critically important, as Moscow and Washington appear to be moving towards a much-desired strategic rapprochement.
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Russia and China, which had played a key role last time in persuading Iran to sign up for JCPOA, become stakeholders once again along with Europeans with whom Iran is already discussing the issue. At the Beijing talks, both China and Russia called for easing the sanctions on Iran while urging for reviving negotiations without threats by the US and others. All three also held naval drills recently.
President Trump had sent a letter to Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei, which was delivered by Anwar Gargash, adviser to the UAE President. However, the typical tone and tenor of threats by Trump did not go down well with the Ayatollah, who turned down talks under threats. Trust deficit is at its height. Khamenei said, “Some foreign governments and domineering figures insist on negotiations, while their goal is not to resolve issues but to exert control and impose their own agenda.”
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Although a lot of verbiage flew in the timing of the issue and receipt of the famous Trumpian farman, the Iranian Embassy in Washington DC did manage to comment that “if the objective of negotiations is to address concerns vis-à-vis any potential militarisation of Iran’s nuclear program, such discussions may be subject to consideration”. Iran has always maintained that its nuclear quest was civilian in nature, which its adversaries never believed. It, however, condemned the fatwa reference at the UN Security Council meeting on Iran’s uranium enrichment, calling it biased.
A lot will depend on the duration of the Trump-Putin bonhomie since Moscow has the capacity to lay the table for talks to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal to address the key US and Israeli proliferation concerns and not the maximum pressure campaign by the Trump administration. While the hoary, acidic statements by both sides—the Israel-US and Iran—might make good nationalistic sound bites, they may not necessarily derail the process.
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The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.