How Philippines’ maritime sovereignty gains centre stage in South China Sea dispute amid aggressive Beijing and assertive Washington
- August 8, 2024
- Posted by: Ambassador Gurjit Singh
- Categories: China, Philippines, Taiwan, USA
The US and its allies see the defence of the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone as part of their efforts to thwart China’s assertion over Taiwan
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In this handout photo provided by Armed Forces of the Philippines, Chinese Coast Guards hold an axe as they approach Philippine troops on a resupply mission in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea on June 17, 2024. AP
The Philippines is currently facing China’s ‘Blue Dragon’ strategy. Its small contingent aboard a grounded vessel, ‘Sierra Madre’, is facing the aggressive intent of Chinese coast guard vessels. Recently, the threatening noises turned to the use of water cannons and the ramming of boats, as well as the flashing of axes and daggers by Chinese personnel. Injuries to Filipino seamen are reported in acts compared to piracy.
The Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin in the Philippines and Ren’ai Jiao in China, where this faceoff is happening, has overtaken Taiwan as a current flashpoint.
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China has evidently decided to enforce its claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea (SCS) within the ten-dash line. This is part of the Spratly Islands, much closer to the Philippines than China, which is 1,000 miles away. The disputes are about clusters of uninhabited shoals. The reason for these disputes is the potential oil and gas that lie below. This series of incidents can nudge the balance of power across the SCS.
The Sierra Madre was a 1944 US ship for the war in the Pacific as a transporter during World War II. It was transferred to the South Vietnamese Navy during the Vietnam War. After that, it came to the Philippines. In 1999, the Philippines deliberately ran it aground at the Second Thomas Shoal. This was as China had occupied the Mischief Reef, 13 miles away, in 1994. The marines on Sierra Madre rotate every three months from their vigil. Since 2012, Chinese CG has interdicted supply vessels for the contingent. The Chinese now expect the Sierra Madre to break up before they move in.
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The Chinese strategy is based on pushing its sovereignty over the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of ASEAN countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where China believes its concept of the traditional ten-dash line overlaps their EEZs. Among those countries, Vietnam has now underplayed a contest with China in favour of a deepened economic partnership.
Malaysia and Brunei never really challenged Chinese activity and ducked attention from Chinese ships in their EEZs. Indonesia has no territorial dispute with China in the SCS but has contention over the North Natuna Sea, where it makes efforts to ward off Chinese fishing vessels protected by the Coast Guard (CG).
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The Chinese ‘Blue Dragon’ strategy backs its claims across the ten-dash line, and the Coast Guard law of 2021 allowed its coast guards to act against other shipping in areas claimed by China. The CG ships back Chinese fishing trawlers indulging in Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing in the EEZs. Now the Coast Guard law of China has been further strengthened and allows the CG to arrest people and equipment for up to 60 days if found ‘infringing’ on China’s perception of the EEZ in the SCS. The CG is now empowered to act against ‘illegal activities within waters under China’s jurisdiction’.
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The Philippines and China have been in contention for decades. In 2016, the Philippines won an arbitral award from the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which denied China the validity of its traditional claims under the ten dashes. China is a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but does not abide by its rules and claims the SCS as its own waterway.
So far, the Quad countries have challenged Chinese efforts to control the SCS by using the ‘Free and Open Indo Pacific’ concept to keep the SCS free for international trade and commerce. Among the ASEAN countries, it is now the Philippines that has decided to challenge Chinese intent. This is after a hiatus during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, who, despite all his bravado at home, was actually quite willing to trade his silence on the SCS for economic benefits from China, like other ASEAN countries.
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Under the new regime of Marcos Jr, the Philippines has decided to pursue its claims over the Thomas Shoals. It has followed a three-pronged strategy. First, it has renewed its base arrangements with the US and revived agreements necessary to operationalise these bases. The Philippines said that some of its northern bases, which are closer to Taiwan, could be used by the US in case of a Taiwan crisis.
Second, it has augmented its relationships with other Quad countries, Japan, Australia, and India. It is among the first beneficiaries of Japan’s new official security assistance and obtains support from Australia. It has been the first ASEAN country to sign a deal for the import of a BrahMos shore-based missile battery from India.
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Third, instead of allowing the Chinese Coast Guard free rein on the Thomas Shoals, it has decided to repair the grounded Sierra Madre. This houses a small Filipino contingent and flies the Filipino flag to show their claim on the shoal. The ship is in dire straits due to rusting, time deterioration and could break up anytime, endangering the contingent on board. Filipino vessels have been trying to repair the damage on the ship to make it inhabitable, but these efforts have fallen foul of Chinese perceptions. Hence, the Blue Dragon strategy of turning up in the oceans and spreading venom is being invoked with vigour.
The Philippines has received substantial support from the Quad countries. The new nomenclature, Squad, shows the Philippines’ closer military arrangement with the US, Japan, and Australia to bolster regional military diplomacy. Though India has provided them with Brahmos, India is not part of the military discussions initiated by the US. This is in keeping with India’s policy in the region, where it works with individual ASEAN countries and ASEAN as a whole for public good in general and strategic cooperation with countries of choice. India does not make criticism of China a part of its policy or a demand on its partners, but its actions help those ASEAN countries that wish to challenge China’s dominance.
ASEAN has been hamstrung by these realities of Chinese bullying. Yet the-member managed a standalone statement on the Philippines-China conflict, but its words were the least commonality among the varied positions of its members. It called for dialogue and peaceful settlement when physical interdiction and assault continue at Thomas Shoals. Clearly, ASEAN is hamstrung by its don’t-annoy-China policy.
Philippines through its presidential statement at the Shangri-La dialogue and otherwise calls for calm and discussion but says if a Filipino is killed by the Chinese, it will be considered an act of war.
The US and then Japan and Australia are now more responsive to the Philippines issues as its integration into Taiwan’s policy is complete.The US and its allies see the defence of the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone as part of their efforts to thwart China’s assertion over Taiwan. Since this now has larger regional manifestations, the tension will surely rise. An accidental killing is a possibility, and then what reaction emerges from the Squad will determine the prevalence of a tenuous peace or limited local conflict.
The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.