How Israel is struck between international agencies and US

Anil Trigunayat

The heat from the international community, including the ICC and ICJ, pressurises the US to find a solution, while Netanyahu’s resolve to destroy Hamas and plans for the Rafah invasion stands undeterred

How a modus vivendi to a solution will be worked out depends on the sincerity and commitment of the international community, including the US, which so far has been below par

As frustrating efforts to bring about some truce and ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in this nearly eight-month-old war do not show any significant promise, Tel Aviv is facing the heat from the International Criminal Court (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), its all-weather iron-clad friend the US, and the international community.

Israel is not a member of the ICC, but that does not prevent it from issuing warrants to its membership to apprehend a person accused of war crimes or causing humanitarian catastrophe. This acquires greater significance as Israeli leadership is already starting its operations in Rafah while maintaining that they are trying to minimise civilian casualties and are shifting the people out of Rafah—a claim that has been rebutted by the UN and others saying that ’there is nowhere to go’.

Even the skirmishes between Egyptian and Israeli soldiers across Rafah this week left three Egyptian soldiers dead, raising tensions between the two countries, which signed a peace treaty in 1979. Egypt also joined South Africa in its genocide case against Israel at the ICJ.

Strange are the ways of the declining hyperpower, which is singularly becoming responsible for undermining the liberal order they themselves had created. While Europe was largely supportive of the ICC, the US opted out, lest its soldiers and leaders be prosecuted for crimes in their unilateral interventions in several theatres in the Middle East.

No wonder Germany, a major supporter of Israel, has said that it will execute if the arrest warrant is indeed issued. Effectively, it is more symbolic but has the potential of ensuing isolation for the indicted military or political leaders through travel restrictions by around 120 member countries. While Palestinian territories have acceded to the ICC and have approached it in the past since 2015, Israel does not recognise its jurisdiction.

Supporting the Israeli stance, the US spokesperson also commented, “The ICC has no jurisdiction in this situation, and we do not support its investigation.” In fact, to bolster support for Netanyahu, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has invited him to address a joint session of Congress in person. But broadly, US support appears to be heading from bipartisan to partisan in their local political landscape for Israel’s actions in Gaza. A headache for election-bound Biden, indeed.

Netanyahu’s resolve to destroy Hamas and plans for the Rafah invasion, as of now, are undeterred, as he claimed, “ICC decisions would not affect Israel’s actions but would set a dangerous precedent.” Foreign Minister Katz also reiterated, “We will not bow our heads or be deterred and will continue to fight.” Even the Russians had taken a similar line when their Foreign Ministry, in response to the arrest warrant, said the ICC’s issuance of warrants against officials from non-party states to the Rome Statute, like Russia, is unlawful. But they are indeed concerned, as the international support, including from their friends, has reached its lowest level due to the ongoing campaign in Gaza. Even the US had called it a red line and paused the supplies of critical ammunition and equipment for a while—probably an eye wash.

The Saudis have become vocal, and their foreign ministry has condemned and denounced the continuous massacres committed by the Israeli occupation forces, the latest of which is the targeting of tents of the displaced Palestinians. It further called out the blatant violations of all international and humanitarian resolutions, laws, and norms by Israel.

Others followed suit, and in Turkey, even the Israeli consulate was set on fire by a mob. The EU is preparing to issue an ultimatum to Israel to comply with ICJ orders, failing which more complications could arise. Macron also condemned and called for the operations to stop immediately. Meanwhile, the Hamas and other Axis of Resistance groups have also renewed attacks on Israel despite being overtly decimated.

Defiance may not be the way out for too long, as domestic discord and increasing protests due to the fate and terrible plight of 128 hostages held by Hamas are also holding the Israeli leadership accountable for it. The dissonance among the war cabinet members and the ministers is pretty evident since several of them, including Benny Gantz and Yoav Gallant, have given a warning to Netanyahu to come out with the ‘Day After’ plan. Mere retribution can’t be a strategy, but Netanyahu is not ready to pass on Gaza from ‘Hamastan’ to’ Fatahstan’.

The pressure for recognising the State of Palestine and a ceasefire increased as Spain, Ireland, and Norway decided to join the others, taking the tally to 146 as of May 2024. Some more, like Malta and Slovenia, might also join the chorus. Israel has called back its ambassadors from the three countries and derided the move, which ‘rewards the terrorists’.

Last month’s UNGA resolution to ask the UNSC to reconsider recognition of Palestine as a full member has added to the momentum. This puts more pressure on President Biden, who, though he supports a two-state solution, does not subscribe to premature recognition and would prefer it as an end result. India, along with a large number of other countries, had supported the UNGA resolution and had recognised the State of Palestine early on in 1988.

Saudi Arabia has been open to enhancing ties with the Jewish state, but the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas and Israelis and their continuing disproportionate response stymied those efforts. Expressing the views of the Arab world, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan urged Israel to accept a credible Palestine on the basis of 1967 borders and understand that it cannot exist without the existence of a Palestinian state. It is also in their best interest, as it will deliver the security that Israel needs and deserves. The people of Gaza cannot wait, and hostages must be immediately released. He further added that Israel does not get to decide whether the Palestinians have a right to self-determination, as these are enshrined in international law and UNSC resolutions. Hence, the momentum must be reinvigorated to establish a two-state solution independent of the Israeli position. This is the right thing to do, he added.

Looking at the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict and the complexity further added in the last seven decades, balls are likely to be in the air for quite some time. How a modus vivendi will be worked out depends on the sincerity and commitment of the international community, including the US, which so far has been below par. In golf, it is good, but in diplomacy, it hurts.

The writer is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is a Distinguished Fellow with leading think tank Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.