Getting Past Operation Sindoor

Deepak Sinha

While our Government may insist that Operation Sindoor is only on pause, the truth of the matter is that it is done and dusted. There can, and never will, be a repeat of the 88 hour long engagement. Instead, it should come as no surprise, that if the situation again boiled over, it may well be the land and naval forces that see bulk of the action the next time. Of course, air power, cruise and ballistic missiles, and all manner of drones, will play a vital role, but necessarily an overwhelming one.

While some losses of our aircraft on the first day have been confirmed, the IAF leadership and crews deserve full credit for having taken that setback in their stride, reorganised, adapted and then unleashed a devastating riposte on 10^th May. Before reading too much into the probable reasons for the PAF’s initial successes, we must be equally cognisant of the fact that the very same Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) strategy and architecture collapsed on 10^th May when the IAF targeted PAF infrastructure and other assets. While reams have been written, and much spoken, on the lessons that need to be learned, the fact of the matter is that this is a subject best left to our military commanders, as they are the only ones fully aware of what exactly transpired, especially the context.

Where there is certainly greater scope for improvement on our part is with regard to strategic communications. We were completely outclassed and that allowed Pakistan to completely dominate and control the narrative. While, given the spread of 24/7 news channels and digital media, narratives are immensely important and influential, they remain nothing more than hyperbole, if not based on the whole truth. Otherwise, they may achieve some traction temporarily, but will ultimately be crushed under the weight of their own lies. As Abraham Lincoln succinctly put it, “You can fool all of the people, some of the time. You can fool some of the people all of the time; but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”

It seems the Pakistan military continues to hanker for parts of Jammu and Kashmir allegedly under our “occupation”. That is plain idiocy given that the circumstances have greatly changed over the past seven decades and they fully know that they can never succeed in such an ambitious endeavour, be it through talks, war or the use of the terror networks that they so assiduously nurture. This clearly explains why their Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Mirza, once again repeated the same cliched threats of Nuclear Armageddon while speaking at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore.

We, on the other hand, appear to have understood that while our robust actions may dissuade the Pakistani establishment from sponsoring such attacks temporarily, to believe we have deterred them from doing so completely would be in the realm of wishful thinking. In the circumstances to continue believing that our threats of retribution and worse, such as liberating POK for example, will either intimidate or force compliance is also in the realms of fantasy.

Even the most simple minded on both sides of the fence understand that, at the end of the day, both nations are back to square one. We are engaged in a zero sum game with diminishing returns. The real losers are the people on both sides, whose future prospects and prosperity are held hostage by our differing outlooks on Jammu and Kashmir. The irony of the situation is that the residents of that erstwhile princely state are not particularly fond of either Indians or Pakistanis, and would have preferred to have been left alone to charter their own destiny. Since too much water has flown through the Jhelum since those days, it would be best for all sides to accept the status quo and look to a brighter future.

We should also be under no illusions that China will not use Pakistan against us, in much the very same manner the United States and NATO have used Ukraine to emasculate Russia. Just as they continue fighting to the last Ukrainian, the Chinese will do the same, till the last Pakistani. To counter Chinese designs we must continue to enhance our war-fighting capabilities even more rapidly. The distances and difficult terrain the Chinese have to traverse from the mainland, as also the necessity to subdue an inherently hostile population, makes Tibet their Achilles Heel. The stronger we are on the LAC, the more they have to worry about.

Clearly, the Chinese seem to be under a grave misapprehension, believing they can win against us, without getting their hands dirty, by using Pakistan as their proxy. We must give them reason to think otherwise by employing strategy and methods that Pakistan has so effectively used against us. They are also fully aware we have the wherewithal to do so quite effectively, if we decide to go down that path.

It is an unfortunate fact that the Sub-Continent teems with Mir Jaffar’s and Jaichand’s of varying degrees who prefer to put their self- interest and ideology above the common good. They would rather we were kept divided, disenfranchised and in a state of utter deprivation, while their own kith and kin avail the benefits of Green Cards and Swiss Banks. A Sub-Continent on the lines of the European Union would give the United States, China and the West a run for their money. The status quo suits them all, and we all are too fatuous and blind to see that, the price of Macaulayism that we continue to pay.