G20 Summit: Why it necessitates comprehensive security beyond the National Capital

In the uncertain and ambiguous geopolitical environment India’s adversaries would not like to support the cementing of its success nor that of Prime Minister Modi whose presence as India’s leader may be anathema to some

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

In a few days, India’s capital New Delhi is going to be buzzing with activity. The G20 Summit is a geopolitical event of immensely high stature. India last witnessed anything even nearing this significance only in March and November 1983, when two major conferences at summit levels were held at the Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi – the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), respectively.

It was the period of Socialist India when its international reputation was allegedly one of being an underdog in the world of geopolitics; although the role it played in South-South cooperation was significant and it was a leading light of NAM having also been its founder. In the world of realpolitik, there were really no perceptions of any grandiose messages emanating from those conferences. The economic strength of the member states and their geopolitical weight were of comparatively low value. The Cold War was still at an intense high and that is really what mattered in the geopolitical world. India was then considered fully in the Soviet camp. No one probably cared too much to take these events significantly or read any messages from them. There were no threats to the agenda although some kind of radical and moderate camps within NAM were beginning to emerge.ADVERTISEMENT

Terror was just raising its ugly head; consider the fact that just a year after CHOGM Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated as a consequence of events triggered by terror in Punjab. The Jammu and Kashmir terror movement was some years away. Only New Delhi had to be secured routinely, more than anything else. Outside Delhi the scope of any act on the borders, or anywhere in the states, or the metros was almost negligible. Mass communication existed as television, print media and radio with television beginning to become high profile.

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In comparison, the G20 Summit slated for 9-10 September 2023 is an event that draws the heads of the economically and geopolitically most powerful nations of the world to New Delhi. It’s not just a meeting but the culmination of a process which involved 13 different Working Groups conferred repeatedly at different locations in India and came to a consensus action plan for G20 to adopt. All 36 states and UTs of India had at least one G20 Working Group meeting in their areas and almost 200 meetings have been conducted over the last nine months. It has all been happening with the backdrop of an increasingly contentious geopolitical divide which has seen the world hurtling towards a new Cold War with an even worse polarisation witnessed than in the previous one. India has been in a position of relative advantage having decided to remain uncommitted to either the US camp or the Sino-Russian combine.

Now as the fastest growing economy in the world, after one of the worst economic crashes seen during the coronavirus pandemic, it draws friends and foes alike. While many would like to partner it to their advantage some would like to dilute its growing reputation and growth potential. A successful G20 Summit would add oodles of strategic confidence to India especially just after the achievements in science and technology which has given its space capabilities such a boost. It’s all coming together at the end of PM Narendra Modi’s second tenure. The success would also power boost his government for the coming general election in 2024.

In the uncertain and ambiguous geopolitical environment, India’s adversaries would not like to support the cementing of its success nor that of Prime Minister Modi whose presence as India’s leader may be anathema to some. To appreciate this, intelligence agencies would have evolved threat perceptions, some generic ones and others based on specified contingencies. These would have been war-gamed and response drills would have been practiced as part of preparedness. In the routine assessment, a terror act throws itself up as a likely threat contingency but there may be many other scenarios quite apart from this. India has been largely free of any strategic terror act for fairly long. Some outstanding footwork in the intelligence field has enabled that, the prime action in this field being the neutralising of networks. Yet, no one can ever discount a terrorist action in a region that has witnessed some very negative events. That is why Delhi will be on very high alert. What has to be understood is that terrorists also grade their actions.You May LikeHowrah: Pos Inventory Software RevolutionManagement-Software-Training | search adsClick Here  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

A terrorist act anywhere in India or on an Indian asset abroad, such as an embassy or a high commission would carry value but significantly lower than striking at India’s capital. The public has to understand this and offer its fullest cooperation to security agencies, with lockdowns and restrictions on movement etc. being imposed during the next few days. Delhi’s virtual closure for almost five days is for good reason.

Beyond the employment of violence through terrorist acts there is the world of limited action, in consonance with the idea of limited war. There can be physicality associated with it or it can be played in the cognitive domain. On the physical side, there can be limited moves across the LoC and the LAC by adversaries, to primarily divert attention and give rise to public reaction. In days when Pakistan still had major capability to create narratives at the LoC, this was always a threat. Border Action Teams comprising Pakistani terrorists and some SSG elements attempted to target our LoC patrols. Ever since transparent retaliatory action has been guaranteed by the Indian side the risk of escalation may not be taken. Yet, nothing can be discounted and the army would remain on higher alert. The LAC can be fairly unpredictable too. We have witnessed ‘walk in’ attempts across the LAC by the PLA during high-profile events such as the visit of Xi Jinping himself to India; again aiming to create uncertainty and leave us in search of options.

Today there are 60,000 troops each of the PLA and the Indian Army with air force resources deployed too. The situation offers multiple options, scope and range through which a potential effect on the Summit may be felt. India is therefore taking no chances and has planned its proactive actions well. The Air Force is conducting Exercise Trishul showcasing its capabilities. The Navy and the coast guard are on the alert on the seas and near the coastline to deter any 26/11-type actions by adversaries. The army is bolstering internal security capability and maintaining a stronger vigil at the LoC and LAC. In Jammu and Kashmir, known soft targets, such as minorities, soldiers on leave and isolated policemen have to be cautioned about vulnerability and more proactive intelligence has to be ensured. One can recall the Chittisinghpura massacre of 19 March 2000 during the visit of President Bill Clinton to India. The one fresh threat against which we need comprehensive counter-action drills is the domain of drone technology.

The cognitive domain is not free of controversy and offers much scope to generate negativity about an impending event. We have witnessed cartographic attempts to project claims by China through the publishing of maps. The world and the Indian public must also know that properly marked claim lines on military maps have never been handed over to India by China in support of its claims. Planting narratives in the minds of delegates before, during and just after the event is to divert their attention and attempt to dilute the sheen of an event that has seen some great potential in diverse fields which is bound to give India’s image a major fillip. China’s Global Times, its influential mouthpiece, is going to be on the lookout for opportunities to air some diversionary issues. India’s Ministry of External Affairs too is well prepared for this. It has worked like a well-oiled machine over the last ten months with human resources from across the government contributing their bit.

A successful communique is probably expected from the G20 Summit but that is also a difficult call given the fact that uncertainty and the grey zone appear to be the dominant terms at present. The world order is sufficiently murky to bring non-issues to the fore to paint an event meant for the good of humanity with all kinds of colours. Yet, India’s hard work is bound to be rewarded despite all perceptions of negativity that we can imagine.

The writer is a former GOC of the Army’s 15 Corps. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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