From South China Sea to Myanmar: How ASEAN Summit took on regional challenges

Gurjit Singh

It was for the first time that ASEAN countries were speaking up about their concerns with China, while Thailand deserves credit for bringing the Myanmar issue to the table

The annual meeting of the East Asia Summit, alongside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit and summits of ASEAN and some of its dialogue partners, took place on October 10-11, in Vientiane, the capital of Laos.

Laos is the chair for 2024 of ASEAN, and this was the great Laotian moment, which comes once in a decade, when Laos gets to chair ASEAN and receives a host of ministers and leaders for the ASEAN Plus meetings. This time, some of the lustre was missing because US President Joe Biden did not attend the summit for the second year in a row; he had also not gone to Jakarta, Indonesia, for the 2023 EAS and had instead sent Vice President Kamala Harris. This time Secretary of State Blinken held the US seat, thus depriving Laos of its once-in-a-decade chance of hosting a US President.

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Interestingly, Indonesian President Jokowi also chose to skip the event rather than come by and bid farewell to all his ASEAN colleagues. Myanmar, for the first time in several years, decided to participate in the summit and sent its permanent secretary, since it is only allowed to send a non-political participant.

Laos was happy to welcome Prime Minister Narendra Modi from India and PM Anthony Albanese from Australia, while Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba made his diplomatic debut. On this occasion, new Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra also met her counterparts for the first time. Modi had separate bilateral meetings with Ishiba, the Laos leadership, the Thai PM, and Australian and New Zealand PMs. Thus, a fulsome regional dialogue ensued.

Laos served the purpose of bringing together the region, and while not allowing open criticism of China in the emerging documents, it kept the lid on too much controversy.

However, it was evident that for the first time, ASEAN countries were now speaking up about their concerns with China in the South China Sea at the China-ASEAN meeting. Beijing had so far, over the years, kept a lid on this by relegating discussions on the South China Sea to bilateral forums.

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This time, however, the Philippines, which is subjected to much intrusion and harassment by Chinese vessels, asked for an honest dialogue and engagement. They received support from Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. According to reports, while these discussions do not get reflected in the pre-negotiated chair’s summary, which continues to talk about China being a great partner for ASEAN, the discussion was not entirely as per a Chinese script. The Chinese-led rules for the engagement with ASEAN were breached. This indicates that some ASEAN countries are now venting their frustration more clearly.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang responded in his typical manner by blaming the United States and others for intervening in the region and upsetting the balanced relationship between China and ASEAN.

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PM Modi built upon his 12-point proposal to ASEAN in 2023 to a 10-point proposal to strengthen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and ASEAN. In his brief statement, he emphasised that the Asian century belonged to India and ASEAN, without conceding that it was a Chinese century, by offering a robust partnership to ASEAN.

Modi set the pace for further invigorating the India-ASEAN partnership as India marks the 10th year of the enunciation of the Act East Policy.

As is the want now, India does not rely only on the chairman’s statement after the ASEAN-India meeting. India also looks for other common and focused agreements; this year, there has been one on the digital public infrastructure and another on strengthening the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace, Stability, and Prosperity in the Region in the context of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) with the support of India’s Act East Policy (AEP). This is a new innovation by India to add heft to the joint statement.

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The third important aspect of this year’s meetings was that Japanese PM Ishiba made his diplomatic debut in the region. However, he was much quieter than his public pronouncements before he became the leader of the ruling party of Japan or his recent statements on confronting China in the region and playing a more robust role to deal with geopolitical realities.

ASEAN is not enamoured of his concept of an Asian NATO but is happy to receive official security assistance on a bilateral basis. Hence, Ishiba did not pursue the Asian NATO concept during his visit and actually spoke to China and others about abiding by international rules and laws and avoiding intrusions into the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone, Japanese territorial waters, and airspace in the East China Sea. Thus China, this time, was called out by ASEAN, India, and Japan.

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The lurking problem behind all the meetings has been ASEAN’s inability to break through with Myanmar. ASEAN partners, like the US and Australia, continue to nudge them to be tougher with the Myanmar junta. Other countries, like India, are more ready to engage with a wider spectrum of voices in Myanmar. India supported ASEAN’s five-point consensus (5PC), but that has been stalled, and ASEAN needs to find a way out of this quagmire and engage Myanmar on better terms than the Tatmadaw is offering. India called for wider consolations and engagement among Myanmar people, which the 5PC envisaged but has not attained.

Thailand is taking the lead and is proposing to host a troika plus meeting. The troika is currently Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia, the ASEAN Chairs between 2023 and 2025. Three continuing chairs of ASEAN are expected to provide continuity to the process. It is Thailand’s initiative to invite the troika and any other ASEAN member who would be interested, plus partners like India, to hear various voices from within Myanmar and try to nudge the country towards a credible election. The path is not easy, but it is to the credit of Thailand that they are taking the steps towards breaking the impasse.

On the South China Sea, there is continuing disappointment because the code of conduct negotiations are just not moving forward. In fact, China, by intensifying its assault on the Philippines and intruding in Vietnamese waters, is creating cleavages of perception within ASEAN. Some ASEAN countries who are feeling the heat of Chinese action want more robust ASEAN responses, but others who are either not claimants or prefer to be quiet on their claims do not want to upset the economic cooperation bridge with China.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author.