Five takeaways from mid-year ASEAN meetings in Laos
- August 14, 2024
- Posted by: Ambassador Gurjit Singh
- Categories: China, North Korea, USA
US-China discussions, Russia’s support for North Korea, disputed stands on Gaza and Myanmar and de-escalation in the South China Sea — strategic cleavages in the region remain despite efforts to fix them
by Gurjit Singh
The current chair of ASEAN, Laos, held a series of mid-year meetings, which normally accompany an ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the largest among ASEAN-centric organisations, the foreign ministers (FM) of the East Asia Summit (EAS) countries, whose summit will take place alongside the ASEAN summit in October, and several dialogue partners held their FM-level bilateral meetings.
This clutch of meetings covered a wide area of discussion. Here are five significant aspects which emerged from these meetings:
US and China, hot and cold
First, the US-China dialogue continued. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi before joining the Quad FMs in Tokyo. This was their sixth meeting since Blinken visited China in May 2023.
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Taiwan was discussed. The US sought a reduction in the quasi-blockade and continuous provocations that China undertakes around Taiwan. It also sought more orderly behaviour by China in the contentious South China Sea. The positive sign was that the standoff between China and the Philippines over resupplies to a Philippines contingent on a grounded ship appears to be resolved at the moment.
China and the US agreed to continue discussions on the military-to-military relations. But the US complained that China was overtly supporting Russia’s defence preparedness and was thus associated with the Ukraine crisis. The US seems intent on acting against Chinese companies identified in this association with Russia and Ukraine.
From the Chinese side, it was clear that while meetings and communications were now regular between the two nations, China remains unhappy about the US-led effort to “contain” China in the region.
The second important aspect is that Russia showed support for DPR Korea, given the recent enhancement of engagement between them. The Russians protested the new guidelines on how US nuclear elements on the Korean peninsula would be utilised, saying this enhances regional security anxiety and threatens North Korea. Russian FM Sergey Lavrov said that US action in the region was “inflaming the atmosphere around the Korean Peninsula” with greater militarisation. The plethora of US and partner military exercises in the region currently underway were mentioned as a matter of concern. Clearly, Russia is making a larger strategic statement at these meetings in support of North Korea and China and trying to show that despite the Ukraine crisis, its diplomatic efforts are energised.
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Thirdly, the attention is on North Korea because the ARF is the only meeting in which it is invited in the region. For the sixth year in succession, the North Korean FM did not participate. Their Ambassador to Laos participated and reportedly spoke to nobody. Efforts by South Korea and Japan to gauge a thaw were infructuous. North Korea has taken a harder position since its talks with the US on denuclearisation, including the Kim-Trump summit in 2019. Since then, the DPRK has intensified its engagement with Russia and China.
North Korea clarified that while former US President Trump had tried to build a personal relationship with Kim, there was no policy change from the US, leading to unfulfilled expectations. North Korea, as an ally of Russia and China, is now carefully watched as NATO countries make a bigger appearance in the Indo-Pacific for joint exercises.
Gaza, Myanmar
A fourth aspect of interest was the ASEAN meeting itself. On two important issues, the Gaza conflict and Myanmar, the delegates remain divided.
Where Gaza is concerned, several ASEAN countries wanted to emphasise the problems faced by ASEAN citizens in the crisis, but not all of them agreed to this. Malaysia and Indonesia, the two predominantly Muslim countries within ASEAN, have been the most vocal in seeking the condemnation of Israel. The Indonesian President-designate, General Prabowo Subianto, spoke of the possibility of sending Indonesian peacekeepers. The Indonesian FM told her counterparts that the recent ICJ rulings need to be taken seriously.
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The point of unity among ASEAN countries on the Gaza crisis was the humanitarian and economic impact it was having on them. Thailand and Singapore, with their old ties to Israel, do not want an outright condemnation and want to look at the roots of the current conflict that started on October 7, 2023. The lack of a common position and interest will continue to disturb the ASEAN just as the Ukraine crisis has.
On Myanmar, there is continuing pressure by Australia and the US in particular to act. However, the five-point consensus of 2021 is now being ignored. There is a new troika arrangement of Indonesia, Laos and Malaysia, the three ASEAN chairs between 2023 and 2025 who are trying to address this problem. The rotating ASEAN special envoy has worked inconsistently. There are now calls for a permanent envoy. While some ASEAN countries want an activist role in restoring democracy and better communications in Myanmar, neighbouring countries like Thailand, supported by Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, want a more practical view. They see Myanmar as a neighbour first and an ASEAN member later. Since 2021, nonpolitical representatives of Myanmar have been welcome. This time, the Myanmar Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs attended. They made conciliatory noises that they require less criticism and more assistance, which has been slow in coming.
Finally, over China, ASEAN welcomed practical moves to decrease tension in the South China Sea, prevent accidents and actions based on mistaken perceptions that could further heighten the disputes.
Two things stand out. There are murmurs that the long negotiations on the code of conduct between ASEAN and China on the South China Sea are progressing. Both sides are tight-lipped about details. The Philippines is bearing the brunt of the Chinese aggressive intent. It is clear that even if a code of conduct is signed, the Chinese are not going to pull back from their claims in the region. If any ASEAN country contests that, it will lead to a fiery response as the Philippines found out. Yet, the Philippines did not find enough support to have its say in the communique.
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The most notable aspect is that strategic cleavages are increasing in the region and the meetings are not doing enough to fix the breaches.
The writer is former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia & ASEAN, Ethiopia and the African Union