Dissuading The Dragon

Editor’s Note

Could India’s rendezvous with China in the muti-domain modern battlefield be sooner rather than later? The article explores the possible course the Chinese leadership could opt for with their roots firmly nourished by the Middle Kingdom syndrome, while the yearning to erase the memoirs of the ‘Century of Humiliation’ acts as a forceful driver. However, Ukraine proves that the asymmetry of forces is no recipe for assured success.

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The recently released report in March of the United States-Directorate of National Intelligence warns of a distinct possibility of Sino-Indian conflict. It points out that continued large-scale deployments by both sides on contested and undefined borders can lead to miscalculation and escalation. The obvious question is – will Dragon attempt another foray? Does integration of Xijang (Chinese term for Tibet) take precedence over Taiwan? Chinese are known for utilising historic milestones. Will the window between 2024 (the 75th anniversary of the formation of the PRC) and 2027(the centenary year of the PLA) turn out to be ominous? 

Chinese Core Interests and Perceptions 

The Chinese Dream is based on righting the wrongs of the period of her colonial subjugation, described as the Century of Humiliation.  It is driven by the ‘middle kingdom syndrome’ and the intent to rediscover their greatness. Objective analysis cannot deny the Chinese their strengths- resilience and innovative streak. The legendary Silk Roads drew their name from Chinese Silk, which was the global currency. Jade, ceramics, herbs, and later paper and gunpowder were all coveted product mixes traded by China. It is now the manufacturing hub in the global supply chain, with the ambition to leverage the  Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connectivity as a radiating spokes to reinforce influence and dependencies. China has a surplus of funds and infrastructure creation capability, which it wants to leverage through BRI. 

It is important to reiterate that India is the most prominent nation to oppose BRI, justifiably so, because CPEC violates our sovereignty; it runs through contested (de-jure Indian) territory. China has catapulted itself as the second largest economy and is competing with the USA in the bipolar global power matrix, where it seeks to be at the very helm. It is aggressively pushing for unipolar Asia and plays a petty ‘zero-sum’ game in our extended neighbourhood to stymie even the modest Indian outreach with a string of pearls and connectivity projects. It is simply unwilling to accept formulations like the Indo-Pacific and Indian Century. Chinese rise was being fuelled by Deng’s wisdom of- ‘Bide your time, hide your shine’. Xi Jinping’s misplaced ‘wolf-warrior’ anxiety has prematurely exposed the Dragon’s fangs. Pragmatically, China should not be keen to initiate any conflict, as it will derail the entire Chinese Dream. 

Chinese Perception of India

Noted Chinese affairs expert Vijay Gokhale, in his report, ‘A Historical Evaluation of China’s India Policy’, has outlined Chinese beliefs. While we may find it diabolic, yet it merits consideration. The report’s takeaway is the reality check on how Beijing perceives India in zhengzhijunshi-zhang (politico-military war), first, as an unequal and unreliable neighbour, unworthy of any stand-alone status or consideration. Second, relevant only in hyphenated mode, tagged with great powers in the strategic trinity of USA, USSR and China. Third, there is a clear expectation that India should first understand Chinese objectives. To put it bluntly, India should play along. Fourth, China can afford to deal with India in episodic tactical mode within her own long-term trajectory. It is important to remember that, unlike Indians, the Chinese think of a time in the Centuries. They aim to wear out the opponent by building overwhelming asymmetry. Chinese assertion to push the resolution of the Sino-Indian border to the back-burner, coupled with salami slicing, Xiokangs (border villages), and no patrolling zones, are all part of a plan to create new and altered fait-accompli realities for us.  

Bharat Narrative and Push Back

Chinese pre-emptive deployment in  Ladakh in May 2020, accompanied by hype on technical asymmetry and narrative shaping, are manifestations of grey-zone warfare. China had literally applied the old maxim, “loot the house on fire”, by launching coordinated salami-slicing in April 2020, even when COVID-19 was raging. However, India has managed to push back China with a display of resilience in  Galwan, Yangtze (December 2022) and, most importantly, quid-pro-quo deployment on  Kailash Heights in September 2020. India has not only rebalanced its forces (approximately 10,000 troops) but also orchestrated a dissuasive grid backed by adequate reserves. As per media reports, raising another division for Mountain Corps and operationalising Area HQ into Corps HQ is under advanced consideration. The deployment is being reinforced with a relentless focus on border infrastructure like the recently inaugurated Sela Tunnel. 

It has also added a maritime dimension with successful anti-piracy operations, announcements of setting up the Jatayu base in Lakshadweep, and plans to expand the Andaman base. It is important to remember that infrastructure projects entail gestation, continued commitment, and timely fiscal support. Agni-V, MIRV, and MaRV tests add to the unfolding Bharat Narrative, which is now being acknowledged even in Chinese media, Weibo, and think tanks. 

Decades To Go

On balance, the pre-mature and ill-advised Chinese foray in Tibet has exposed limitations of the application of coercive deployment. The recent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have further reinforced the futility of the application of kinetic force. Most importantly, it has jolted us out of our Pak-centric fixation and skewed focus on counter-insurgency. It was based on traditional beliefs that conventional operations are unlikely and Xi will continue following Deng’s subdued rise policies. 

On a positive note, it has also busted the myth and hype of Chinese asymmetry, which is certainly not debilitating. However, the next arenas in grey-zone warfare are likely to extend into cyber and cognitive domains besides maritime. Yet, we simply cannot afford to let our guard down in the terrestrial domain on LAC. We have to be cognizant that heavy lifting is our burden, and external assistance would be limited. 

In the ever-evolving geo-strategic flux, two “known-unknown” challenges are evolving but important. First, it is now known that Russia is in resurgent mode, but its quantum and inter-se influence in the US-China-India trinity is unknown. Our concern would be to build commitment to strategic cooperation, regardless of growing Sino-Russian ties. Second, the USA has forged a bipartisan consensus on check-mating China, but its character in the likely Trump regime is difficult to predict. The recent visit of Secretary Antony Blinken raises questions on US commitment to QUAD. While Pak remains a permanent irritant for India, China is the primary challenge. The threat is accentuated by growing collusive linkages between the two. We are making steady progress but have decades to go before we narrow the existing asymmetry for stable, credible deterrence against the Dragon. Till then, it is vigilance and readiness. Hopefully, focused preparations and narrowing asymmetry will add to the dissuasive coefficient in the Sino-Indian matrix. 

Lt Gen KJ Singh (Retd)