Countering Pakistani Provocation

Deepak Sinha

Mere words are insufficient condemnation for the horrific and cold-blooded murder of 26 tourists in Pahalgam on 22 April. Reams can be written on this incident and its implications, but clearly the person on the street is looking for answers to three very simple questions.

· Firstly, who did this and why?

· Secondly, why was our security and intelligence establishment caught with their pants down and who is to blame for this disaster?

· Finally, what are we going to do about it, so that it is not repeated in the future?

By all accounts this was a meticulously planned and executed operation by well-trained and equipped terrorists, some of whom were Pakistani nationals. It was reportedly perpetrated by a front organisation of the Pakistan based, and state supported, Lashkar-E-Taiba (LET). This radical and regressive Islamist group has been at the forefront of terror attacks against us over the past three decades. It’s actions over all these years have clearly shown that it has no love lost for either Kashmiris or our Muslim brethren, and is only focused on dismembering India, whichever way they can.

Allegations being levelled in Pakistan that this was either the handiwork of “freedom fighters” resisting Indian occupation of Kashmir. or the even more outlandish claim, that this was a “false flag” operation conducted by Indian intelligence to damage Pakistan’s reputation, are sheer nonsense. For one, Pakistan’s reputation is already at a level from where it can’t fall further. Secondly, why would the Central Government, that is responsible for law and order within the Union Territory, axe its own feet by carrying out a false flag operation at a time the economy there is surging exponentially, the massive tourist influx being just one indicator?

Resounding protests that have erupted along the length and breadth of the UT against the Pahalgam outrage clearly show the local population is done with insurgency, for which they have paid an extremely heavy price with absolutely no returns. They now have every intention of moving ahead and securing their future, and want nothing other than peace and tranquillity to prevail. Pakistanis are deluding only themselves, if they believe the Kashmiris would like to be a part of a moth- eaten colony of China.

Clearly, this action by the LET had the support of the Pakistan military and intelligence establishment at the highest levels, with evidence of their involvement hidden in plain sight. For one, the Pakistan COAS, Gen Asim Munir’s recent speech to an assembly of the Pakistani diaspora was very revealing and relevant, given the timing. It was nothing other than a communal rant against Hindus. He also made clear his support for the long discarded two-nation theory, and insisted on referring to Jammu & Kashmir as Pakistan’s jugular. All of this point to an aggressive design to provoke India.

Even more telling, is the Inter Service Public Relation’s (ISPR) public statement on the issues discussed at the Corps Commanders’ Monthly Conference held at the Pakistan Army GHQ between 2^nd to 4^th April. On 8^th April the Pakistani handle, YALGAAR@Halat_i_Watan, tweeted on X, his analysis of the “Media Release of the 268^th Corps Commanders’ Conference held at the Pakistan Army GHQ on 3-4^th April.” Its gist:

· “The monthly Corps Commanders’ Conference has not been held regularly since Gen Munir took over due to political unacceptance of Pakistan Army by Awam.

· Interesting is that the release highlighted strategic response to India. Something big being planned…. wait and watch.

· A warning has been given for facilitators and abettors of Baloch insurgency… Pakistan believes it was India. No names were called out but it is clear that some strategy against India is made and will unfold shortly. It is going to be whole of nation approach.

· Lastly COAS exhorted all to maintain highest level of combat preparedness…we are likely to see increased action in IOJK or a skirmish between Army and Afghan forces on Durand Line or beyond.”

This brings us to the question as to why did the Pakistan Army decide to provoke India in this manner now? Firstly, their attempts, over the past two years, to attack soft targets in the Jammu-Kishtwar-Doda-Rajouri sectors has rapidly lost steam as our Security Forces upped their game, drastically reducing their chances of success. Shifting operations to the Kashmir Valley, in the circumstances, seems a logical course, especially since the Valley offers more lucrative targets.

More importantly, the Pakistan Army’s image and popularity has taken a massive beating over the past few years. Their suppression of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, which is extremely popular and his subsequent imprisonment have not been taken to kindly by the people. Add to that criticism in mainstream media against the cases of massive corruption being indulged in by the Generals that have come out into the open, and the Army’s pathetic display against Balochi insurgents. Most recently, the death of 26 people, including 18 Army personnel, taken hostage following the hijack of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan. There is a perception within the military, without any evidence being presented, that it is India’s support to Balochi insurgents that has emboldened them.

Provoking India to start a conflict is thus seen as the ideal way for the Army to regain respect and its earlier importance in the eyes of the people. In addition, India would be deterred from further involvement in the Balochi Liberation Movement. Finally, there are the usual hackneyed reasons about Jammu & Kashmir being illegally occupied by India and in need of liberation. Disrupting Kashmir’s economic development also shows up the Indian state to be weak and powerless. Undoubtedly, all of this suggests that, in essence, the military establishment is holding the country to ransom to ensure that they continue to retain their stranglehold over the country.

By deliberately targeting only Hindu men, though tragically one local and Christian also fell to terrorist bullets, they hoped to create a groundswell of hostility against the Kashmiri population and Muslims at large. An attempt that did get some traction, when some Hindu zealots did indulge in violence against Kashmiri residents in some of the northern states. The Government would do well to clamp down on the perpetrators quickly.

This brings us to the question of why our security and intelligence establishment was once again caught flatfooted. It goes without saying that these organisations, as we have seen time and again, be it Kargil or Ladakh, take their cue from how the political leadership views national security. Despite all their posturing the Modi Government has been particularly lax on this issue, preferring to spend its time and resources on curbing opposition to its policies and staying on in power so that it can bring to fruition its idea of Bharat. This is the reason why our military capabilities have been denuded and their stature reduced, while the Police and CAPF have been given primacy of place within our uniformed forces.

To understand the consequences of this mindset, one has only to examine what transpired during the Home Minister, Mr Amit Shah’s visit Srinagar between 6^th-8^th April. While there, he chaired a meeting of the Unified Headquarters to review security arrangements for the Amarnath Yatra, for which as is the norm of this government, the J&K Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, was not invited. On conclusion of his visit, Mr. Shah issued a public statement in which he emphasised that “Due to the sustained and coordinated efforts of the Modi government, the entire terror ecosystem nurtured by elements inimical to our country in J&K has been crippled.” It now seems our modern day Chanakya could not have been more wrong, or so out of touch with reality.

It is also wholly inconceivable that our intelligence and military establishment was unaware of what had been discussed at that Corps Commanders Conference at Pakistan Army GHQ. Given the fact that no action had been initiated by the Governor to provide even token security at vulnerable areas, strongly suggests that this critical bit of information was either overlooked or disregarded. Whatever be the case, it is a totally unacceptable situation, especially given how critical a role intelligence plays in counter terrorism operations. It would be correct to state that we have been failed by our top leadership, not least the NSA and those heading our intelligence services. Their continuation in office is untenable, to say the least.

Before examining the question of what next, we should be clear in our understanding how terrorism differs from insurgency. That is what should govern our government’s response. Unfortunately, the vast majority of analysts and commentators, including from the military, have made the mistake of conflating terrorism with insurgency. Which is why there have been some extremely vociferous criticism that the Army has greatly depleted its strength in the area, or that they seem to have forgotten about the basics of counter insurgency requiring them to conduct area domination patrols, etc.

An insurgency is a political movement in which the local population of a region or state have taken up arms against the state because they have not been given their due through democratic means. It is a mass movement that either evolves into a civil war and subsequent separation from the state or is peacefully resolved through political initiatives. This is the reason why insurgents are very focused in their targeting so as to avoid the mass movement getting a bad name. Counter insurgency operations therefore, require adequate boots on the ground, strengthening of the grid and area domination patrols etc. so that the insurgents can be neutralised to allow resolution of issues through discussions.

Terrorism, on the other hand, is simply the use of violence to achieve one’s own aims. Some mass movements in their early stages gather momentum by using terror tactics against their own community leaders to gain control, before it evolves into a popular insurgency. On the other hand, terror outfits do not need the support of the masses and are willing to indulge in actions that may be to the detriment of the very people they claim to support. Thus, their footprint in the area of operations tends to be very small and difficult to discern. Since there are a plethora of soft targets that they can strike, protection against a terror attack becomes extremely difficult. Their weakness, however, is the vulnerability of their bases and leadership once identified. In the circumstance successful pro-active counter-terrorism operations can only be conducted if accurate actionable intelligence is available. These tasks are best undertaken by highly specialised forces, so availability of numbers is not a criteria.

As for the question of what next, unfortunately, Mr Modi established an extremely unhealthy, and one might add, a wholly unethical precedent, by turning the IAF strike on Balakote in response to the Pulwama tragedy as his main election plank. That move did indeed win the BJP and its allies the 2019 General Election, but now constrains their actions. With the Central Government being responsible for law and order in the Union Territory, the Modi Government now finds itself in a particularly unenviable and embarrassing position, particularly given Mr Modi’s biting criticism of the Manmohan Singh Government, following the Mumbai 26/11 attacks, when he was Chief Minister. The chickens, it seems have truly come home to roost.

While the diplomatic response already announced is more symbolic than substantive, it does give us leeway to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty more equitably, when both sides decide to return to the conference table. Additionally, it does give some comfort to the domestic audience thirsting for revenge. More substantive punitive actions have also been suggested, like crossing the LOC/IB and capturing territory or striking against terror camps deep in the interior. To my mind these actions will be counter productive as they will invite retaliation and may well lead to escalation in hostilities. That is exactly what the Pakistan military hopes to achieve.

Given that the Pakistani military leadership is holding its own population hostage, it would be to our advantage, to take a completely different tack and aim to neutralise the terror architecture at its very source. We must publicly list as terrorists, all those involved in this attack, including those who have sponsored and directed it. The Government should then approach the Pakistan Government to extradite them to face trial here. While this action is in process, we should take all necessary steps, both covert and overt, to neutralise them. This is exactly how Israel and the United States have repeatedly targeted commanders of forces inimical to them. It is time that the likes of General Munir, the COAS, and Lt Gen Asim Malik, the DG ISI, found themselves at the wrong end of the barrel. They may view the world differently then and we may even get thanks from the political establishment there!