By: Tara Kartha

As the International Monetary Fund slashes Pakistan’s growth to a mere 0.5 per cent, and there is no sign at all of the promised funds, yet the Cabinet Committee on National Security issued notice that it was set to launch an “all-out comprehensive operation” against terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Such operations don’t come cheap, not to mention taking a toll on the army. But it seems the ‘establishment’ is on board, and that’s all that matters in Pakistan.

The big men meet

The meeting of the National Security Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister and attended by service chiefs, key cabinet members and intelligence heads, should have been one of due solemnity, considering that the formal launch of a new military operation hasn’t been seen since 2016. It’s a different issue that there are continuous operations going on in the tribal areas and in Balochistan throughout the year, but this promises to be a much larger effort, involving efforts at the political, diplomatic, security, economic and social levels, together with social and media platforms. 

RELATED ARTICLES

Pakistan lacks ammunition, economic strength, cannot afford war with India: Ex-army Chief Gen Bajwa to journalistsPoonch terror attack: Desperate Pakistan’s last throw of dice; India must go ahead with holding G20 meetings in Kashmir

A high-level committee has also been formed  to make recommendations towards its implementation. All that sounds very impressive, except that the committee also announced that talking to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had been a huge blunder – naturally by the previous government of Imran Khan – and condemned their ‘appeasement’. That’s incredible, since all of this was sanctioned by the then Pakistani military leadership, including the ‘rehabilitation’ of some  5,000 TTP cadres. Now it seems that a fresh set of khakis had decided to condemn what their seniors – specifically COAS General Qamar Bajwa — did. It’s quite unprecedented.

The subtext

Then look closely at the subtext.  Elections are due in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as per the Supreme court’s orders. That order saw high drama after two judges of the original five-member bench, Justices Jamal Khan Mandokhail and Aminuddin Khan, recused themselves from hearing the case. You May LikeThis Supplement Can Boost Your Energy And MetabolismAlpileanLearn More  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

Thereafter, the CJP constituted a fresh bench to hear the petition of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to hold the election. That led to a 3-2 verdict on March 1 for elections within 90 days. This was a suo-moto action by Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial. 

The government reacted with an outrageous bill to clip the wings of the Courts, with ‘The Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Bill, 2023′ which was passed in both houses and sent to the President for his signature. Even higher drama was to follow. On April 4, the  apex court ordered the government to provide 21 billion Pakistani rupees in funds to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), to conduct elections in both states by April 10. The government referred that to Parliament. 

As of the time of writing, no funds had been provided, leading to a an angry  outburst from the court noting “The failure of the federal government to comply with the order of the court as aforesaid is prima facie disobedience…..Every person who embarks upon, encourages or instigates disobedience or defiance of the court can be held liable and accountable,”. It then proceeded to summon every person concerned from the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, to the Finance Secretary, the Attorney General and others. The government did table a bill mandating release of funds, but the tussle continues as to whether there should be joint elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Punjab, or staggered ones. That the general public is more than aware of these machinations, and the reason for this makes it worse.

The upcoming threat

Meanwhile, the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have every reason to be more than apprehensive. Saleem Safi in  Jang, (12 April 2023) notes that the present round would be far more like war. Past operations have seen youth picked up and ‘disappeared’, extra-judicial killings,  houses razed, and knocks in the night. Worst for the locals have been the routine humiliation of a proud people at checkposts, all of which and more are part of the charter of demands of the  Pashtun Tahafuz Movement , an entirely peaceful effort lead by stalwarts like Manzoor Pashteen, which originated from the refugee camps of thousands displaced by brutal military operations. 

All they want is peace in their lands and their constitutional rights. Nowhere is there even a hint of separatism, yet their leaders like Ali Wazir have been imprisoned for years, and their just demands are ignored. The Pashtuns are essentially the fiercest fighters, and it is the legacy of non violence from the days of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan or the ‘Frontier Gandhi’ that has prevailed so far. That could change if a new even fiercer military operation is launched. That violence could spread quickly into other areas like Karachi, and parts of Balochistan. That’s danger number one

That Pashtun flame

The Pashtuns are a large ethnic group, numbering some 45 million, spread in an arc across Pakistan into Balochistan, Sindh and even Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. About 42 per cent of the population in Afghanistan are Pashtun, while Iran, India and Bangladesh also host minority populations, as does much of Europe. 

With a history over several millennia, their modern past can be traced from the Durrani empire (1747) with the group fighting the British, and everyone else including the Soviets. These hardy fighters are now shunned in mainland Pakistan, with racially derogatory epithets used to describe them. This was most evident after a deadly terrorist attack on a mosque in Peshawar in February 2023, which led to a public denouncing of  Pashtuns as terrorists. 

This racial profiling has long been evident with the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan,  condemning this in the strongest terms in 2017.  Meanwhile fears are already being expressed on  social media  of  renewed operations – with most saying that the operations have already begun. 

As this sense of alienation worsens, danger number two is that a real fight for Pashtunistan may emerge, in not just the tribal areas, but also large parts of Balochistan. 

So far the political ‘wing’ of the Pashtun movement, the National Demoratic Front, is only pressing for provincial autonomy and resisting ‘growing  militarisation’. The NDF enjoys a wide base, with  stalwarts from the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), but also leaders expelled from the Awami National Party like Afrasiab Khattak and Bushra Gohar, along with rights activists and  workers from the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party.  

If brutal military operations are launched, leaders like Mohsin Dawar may be unable to stop the demand from shifting to a separate homeland for Pashtuns, which would then be difficult to roll back. That’s danger number two.

The violent factor

That terror attacks are worsening is clear. Data from the Pakistan based Centre for Research and Security Studies,  indicates that 2022 ended as the deadliest month for Pakistan’s security personnel for over a decade with an alleged ‘triad’  formed between Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Daesh-Afghanistan. 

There is little else to support this claim, since the BLA has little truck with religious extremism. The Security forces have however suffered heavily with  282 personnel lost, and 40 fatalities just in December last year. 

KP was the worst hit with fatalities rising by 108 per cent. Since then, there has been a welter of almost daily attacks against security forces, including against the Brigadier of the ISI, while the Counter Terrorism Department has taken hit after hit. 

As for the local people, they are caught quite literally between the devil and the deep, with the terrorists hitting their homes, and extortion rackets again evident. Recently a lawmaker paid out 1.2 million Pakistani rupees after receiving threats. The TTP is not just about demands for shariat. It is also about big money.

The corrosion in the army 

Then there is the obverse side. Those on the ground like Ismat Shahjahan, deputy general-secretary of the socialist Awami Workers’ Party (AWP) and a member of the core committee of the PTM says,  “Terrorism and war are themselves highly profitable businesses. And, we repeatedly stress that the military have made these their profession — their bread and butter”. That is the brutal truth, though in all fairness, is not limited to only Pakistan. It’s an ugly facet of most security dominated states. The danger is then to the Pakistani army itself, which seems to have shifted from a once highly professional army, to a racketeering force due to years of counter insurgency operations, which has instilled a disregard for the lives of their own citizens. Stories of extortion by the ISI for instance have been narrated on the quiet. That is then danger number three, to an army that is already being reviled across the country.

And finally, where’s the money going to come from? In 2010, operations by the Frontier Corps was estimated at $230 million a year, with the state budget only accounting for $88million. The rest had to be made up by the army. Now are plans for an operation on a much larger scale, at a time when the IMF is demanding a reduction in government expenditure, including defence. 

Meanwhile, the US is re-entering Pakistan, with the  State Department  calling for ‘enhanced’ counter terrorism cooperation, even as the Pakistani military complex provides weapons for Ukraine. It begins to seem therefore, that the ‘new operation’ is aimed at pushing the IMF to loosen the purse strings for the army, even while it again looks for assistance from Washington. 

Much of the Frontier Corps training for instance, was once provided by the US till President Trump virtually ended the relationship. Now it looks like cooperation in the back, front and centre. While a state effort at reducing terrorism into Pakistan is understandable, the problem is that first, any weapons or training provided will immediately be used against the Indian state. Second is the far more subtle problem. The Pakistan army has yet to learn to fight a humane war, even after a decade of operations. That means all of the dangers identified above are likely to multiply. 

Hence, there’s trouble ahead, for Pakistan, the region and its allies, unless a  bottom up rehashing of security policy is done with clear basic requirements in mind. And, that is putting Pakistan’s people first; not Afghanistan; not India; nor China and certainly not the Army. It’s that simple. The complicated part is implementing it. That’s nowhere near the horizon. 

The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,
India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.