Amid mounting security concerns posed by spy balloons and UAVs, Japan slowly strengthens alliances to counter China

By: Gurjit Singh

Japan’s deepening defence ties with ASEAN and its member states are complementary to its existing security frameworks, which include its alliance with the US and its partnerships with the Quad and AUKUS

In light of the recent news about spy balloons, Japan is also considering taking measures to protect its airspace. It has been reported that Japan may relax the conditions for allowing its Self-Defense Forces to use anti-aircraft weapons to respond to suspected violations. The reason for this is to safeguard against potential threats posed by spy balloons and unmanned aerial vehicles, which are now seen as security risks for many nations. The government informed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s committee on defence that it was reviewing the rules to allow action against intrusions into its airspace.

At present, the necessary measures which the Japanese SDF is allowed are only in cases of an emergency evacuation or self-defence. Japan is evidently looking at enhancing this to provide measures to secure air traffic security.

It is unlikely that any further amendments to the laws would take place but clarity through reinterpretation is likely to emerge which will then lead to instructions to the Self-Defense Forces.

These discussions followed the Japanese government indicating that from 2019 onwards, there were at least three Unidentified Flying Objects noticed over Japan and these were suspected to have been Chinese spy balloons. This was the first such announcement by Japan following the US shooting down a Chinese spy balloon early in February 2023.

The three intruding flying objects were detected in the southern Kagoshima Prefecture in November 2019 in the northeastern prefectures of Miyagi, and Aomori in June 2020 and September 2021, according to Japanese defence ministry sources. Therefore, they plan to increase surveillance to protect Japan from such intrusions. While these incidents were noticed over the previous years, their linkage to China and the publicity accorded is only after the US shot down a Chinese balloon on 4 February and thereafter.

It is noted that despite the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Japanese defence capabilities are set to rise to fulfil their vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. In this, the United States is the cornerstone of the security strategy. The revised national security strategy and the related defence documents are expected to increase the Japanese role in deterring China and meeting regional challenges.

Japan has been looking at a three-tiered response. The first is enhancing its own security capabilities and budget and relaxing its own laws and rules to become a more potent partner for the US to defend Japan from Russia and China. This would also include the defence of Taiwan, which is an American priority.

Japan’s increased collaboration with its regional allies, which encompasses the AUKUS and Quad partnerships, falls into the second tier of its priorities. While Japan is a part of the Quad, and therefore moves closer to India and Australia, bilaterally and plurilateral, in the case of AUKUS it is like repeating its closeness to the US and Australia and seeking to enhance interaction. Here Japan shows no hesitation in cooperation or anxiety over AUKUS, unlike some countries in the region.

A subset of this is the increasing Japanese collaboration with Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, which are slightly more distant.

Finally, Japan is looking at a wider world view and its direct association with NATO by participating in the 22 June Madrid summit shows that its reach may not be wide, but its vision is certainly growing in tandem with the US policies across the globe.

An instance of this is the newly elected Philippine President Marcos Jr. who visited China in December and also visited Japan. He is now being forced to adjust because the Chinese Coast Guard is testing Philippine defences and continuing the threat to Philippine Islands and their fishermen. At this time Japan is enhancing its defence engagement with the Philippines.

The Chinese leader, Xi Jinping and Philippine president Marcos had in fact agreed to manage their maritime differences through diplomacy and dialogue without resorting to force. As in most cases, the Chinese approach is that they will do what they like, and others need to comply.

Japan’s ability to provide strength to its friends in the region to stand up more to Chinese intrusions and intimidation is therefore going to be tested.

Japan’s defence cooperation initiative with ASEAN had become a guiding principle since the second ASEAN Japan Defence Ministers informal meeting held in Vientiane, Laos, in November 2016. That vision set the future direction of defence cooperation with ASEAN as a whole in Priority fields.

The aim was to develop more practical and operational defence cooperation and later capacity-building regional framework cooperation through the ADMM plus and cooperation in spirit rather than in action were the main themes.

ASEAN used this as a crutch to promote the principles of international law, particularly UNCLOS and to promote its maritime security where Japan was ready to shore up its capabilities for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance as well as search and rescue at sea. Thus, the transfer of equipment and technology was introduced.

In November 2020, Japan and ASEAN adopted a joint statement on cooperation on the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and to enhance practical cooperation in the areas outlined in the AOIP. Japan and ASEAN are commemorating the 50th anniversary of their partnership this year and are seeking to enhance their cooperation beyond their current efforts. This includes exploring new opportunities through various mechanisms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus, and the expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum.

ASEAN-Japan cooperation on counterterrorism and transnational crimes is regular, mainly through the ASEAN-Japan cybercrime dialogue established in 2013 and the ASEAN-Japan counterterrorism dialogue since 2006. Essentially these are all areas where Japan and ASEAN collaborate on nontraditional threats. With China, the threat has become real in the South China Sea for ASEAN and the East China Sea for Japan.

The current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida started his term with early visits to Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand and agreed to transfer military hardware and technology. Closer defence engagement with ASEAN and its members complements Japan’s security networks based on its alliance with the US and engagement with the Quad and AUKUS.

In the main, Japan has transferred technology-laden systems to Southeast Asia though these are still based on using the overseas development assistance programme than commercial sales. Japan is transferring some weapons systems, patrol vessels and surveillance planes to countries around the South China Sea to enhance their naval operational capabilities. How much these will really deter China is uncertain, but it raises the confidence levels in some countries who then feel better prepared to challenge Chinese intrusions.

Several reasons encourage Japan to revive its defence industrial complex. It certainly wants to be a part of the strategic management of Chinese aggressive intent. It would like to be strategically autonomous from the US but at present, it is falling fully into US strategy and even linking to NATO. For this, it requires improving the efficacy and capability of Japanese self-defence forces by augmented equipment and that is why a new National Security Strategy with a more liberal budget has been approved. Through this, the plans of the Japanese Defense Paper 2022 to seek the next generation of weapons, particularly for space and cyber domains is coming to the fore. This will be used to foster Japan’s regional leadership and influence.

Japan sees a reinforced defence industrial complex as a key element of its three-tiered strategy to enhance its influence, safeguard its security, contribute to regional stability, and play a more active role in the international community. Although the time for it has not yet arrived, there has been a noticeable gradual increase in Japan’s alignment with US objectives.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed are personal.

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