Africa seeks peace dividend

BY Ambassador Gurjit Singh

Last week, an African peace delegation travelled to Kyiv and Moscow, presenting them with a 10-point plan for peace. While the plan received mixed reactions, the African initiative was a courageous step towards peace. The effort coincides with India proposing the AU join the G20, and South Africa’s entry into the troika of G20 presidencies next year.

An African peace delegation under an initiative of South Africa, visited the Ukraine and Russia June 16-17. They met President Zelensky in Kyiv and President Putin in St. Petersburg.

The thread the four African heads of state presented, was that they were in a listening mode but had much to say. The four – presidents Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Macky Sall of Senegal, Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia, and Azali Assoumani of the Comoros (current chairman of the African Union) – sought an end to the Ukraine-Russia war which has severely impacted Africa.  A 10-point plan proposed to both Presidents, had varying reactions. The plan included diplomatic negotiations, cease fire, protection of sovereignty and security guarantees, in addition to uninterrupted supply chains for fuel, fertiliser and food; prisoner of war exchanges, return of children. It sounded as if it made more demands on Russia than on Ukraine.

Russian President Putin heard patiently for a while. After presentations from the Comoran, Senegalese and South African presidents, he intervened to challenge the basis of their plan before the discussions could advance further. Zelensky, on the other hand, displayed impatience with the plan, because it did not match his expectations of how the war should end[1]. Zelensky stuck to his position of Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territories before any ceasefire. Putin used the occasion for a deeper conversation since the Russia-Africa Summit is in July. He emphasized that Russia had agreed with Ukraine on a peace plan over a year ago, from which Ukraine resiled.

The African delegation originally had six presidents. But President Museveni of Uganda contracted COVID; President Sisi of Egypt sent his Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, and Congo’s Brazzaville pulled out at the last moment and sent a representative instead.

Overseas missions also visit Africa to intercede in their conflicts. But this is perhaps the first time that an African delegation is seeking the end of a devastating crisis, even though not all African countries are on the same page in this regard[2].

The African initiative is courageous, wading into uncharted waters. Africa wants peace to return. The Ukraine crisis disrupted fuel, fertilizer and food supply chains impacting Africa negatively. African countries are pushed by the Big Powers to take positions, either for or against Russia, which they feel uncomfortable with. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has visited four of these countries since 2022: the Congo, Egypt and Uganda first and now after the BRICS meeting in South Africa, he visited Kenya. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba visited Ethiopia, Morocco and Rwanda, in May 2023; he met the African Union (AU) Chair, President of Comoros Azali Assoumani as well as AU Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat.

South Africa wanted Russia and Ukraine to explain “their point of view on the war as well as their minimum requirements to end the conflict”; “We will be able to give our own point of view as Africans on how we perceive the impact of this war on Africa in terms of food prices, grain, and fuel prices, as well as on Europe and the rest of the world because it has become a rather globalized type of conflict,”[3]

In the UN, India, China and South Africa have consistently abstained on such resolutions, which Russia opposes. Brazil had voted with the resolutions. With the re-emergence of Lula da Silva as president of Brazil, it too has become critical of Western positions. Lula wants an India- Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) call for peace and to revive the dormant entity. He has not built a consensus within IBSA. The BRICS will perhaps take a more cohesive view of the Ukraine crisis, now that Brazil has moved away from the Western stance.

In February 2023, Chinese and Russian naval ships conducted joint exercises with South Africa.[4] Western media leaks accused South Africa of secretly providing weapons and ammunition to a Russian ship, the Lady R in Cape Town on 6 December 2022.[5] South Africa denied this allegation but the strain in its relations with the U.S. has amplified. This is significant because Washington’s African Growth and Opportunity Act, (AGOA) has benefitted several African nations[6] – they export over 1,800 products from citrus fruits[7] to precious metals and cocoa beans to the U.S. In the first quarter of 2023 alone, exports were worth nearly $1 billion.

The U.S. uses AGOA as a coercive tool for countries which fall out of line either of its policies or decimate their own democratic institutions. Ethiopia, Guinea and Mali lost AGOA rights in 2022.[8] Now, U.S. Congressmen want the annual AGOA Forum to be held outside South Africa, suggesting that South Africa could be denied AGOA benefits.

Russia is preparing to host the second Russia-Africa summit in July. Any visitors who talk peace and listen to Russia are welcome to Moscow. The Ukraine also welcomes peace efforts, but often makes it clear that it will not negotiate on the territorial integrity of Ukraine and nor does it want a freezing of the conflict as it is on a current basis. Ukrainian suspicion of Pretoria after the reported arms transfer through Lady R, rankles.

With fighting raging, and Russia remaining confident it can push back the Ukrainian offence, the chances of peace are remote. Time may not be opportune for negotiations, but Ramaphosa believes there is no harm in trying and doing so before he holds the BRICS summit in August.

South Africa is a member of the International Criminal Court which has a warrant for the Russian president, obliging South Africa to arraign him if he visits for the BRICS Summit. Despite reports that South Africa may shift the summit to China, it appears that a parliamentary resolution will amend South Africa’s adherence to the ICC and provide South Africa a cover for Putin’s safe visit.

If Putin visits, he will have an opportunity to meet a large number of African countries since South Africa is likely to use the occasion to invite African countries for a BRICS outreach program.

South Africa claims support for this effort of the UN and even the U.S. In a June 10 telephone call with PM Modi[9], Ramaphosa briefed him on the African Leaders’ Peace Initiative. Prime Minister Modi said India was supportive of all initiatives aimed at ensuring durable peace and stability in Ukraine, reiterating India’s consistent call for dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward.

Ramaphosa also spoke to Xi Jinping of China.[10] A readout of that meeting says that South Africa supports China’s efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis and mentions the African Peace mission. China sees the peace mission as falling in line with its own plan for the Ukraine crisis.

South Africa is leading this push to play a larger role globally and burnish its credentials within Africa. The leadership effort coincides with India proposing that the AU join the G20, and South Africa’s entry into the G20 troika of presidencies next year.

South Africa now needs to emulsify this initiative with the views of the African Union – for which the late inclusion of Comoros as the AU Chair was useful. The AU Commission was hitherto not represented in the Peace Initiative. Pretoria must now integrate this effort with other global peace efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia war, so that its validity is not lost.

Gurjit Singh is a former Indian Ambassador to Germany. He is currently the Chair of the CII Task Force on the Asia Africa Growth Corridor and Professor at the IIT, Indore.

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