European Union Unity in Doubt as Franco-German Axis Falters on Ukraine, China

By: Gurjit Singh

The Czech Republic assumed the presidency of the EU for the latter half of 2022 and convened an informal meeting of EU leaders in Prague on October 7. They mainly discussed the Ukraine crisis, the energy situation in Europe and its economic ramifications. The EU has its hands quite full.

The European Council met on October 20-21, continuing the discussion on the escalating Russian aggression in Ukraine, rejected the annexation by Russia of four regions of Ukraine and blamed Russia for the current energy and economic crisis. Military and financial support for Ukraine continues and the EU leaders criticized the use of Iranian drones by Russia in Ukraine.

The EU leaders meeting kept China in focus too as it held its party congress. The assessment was unanimous: China is more aggressive on military and economic aspects. Though embracing a warring Russia rang alarms, the EU members’ views on how to deal with China were disparate.

Just as the EU was getting ready for the leaders’ summit, Germany announced that its summit with France was postponed. Both countries said difficulties with the diaries of some ministers led to this. However, the timing was crucial. Had the Franco-German summit taken place as scheduled, it would have been a support to the EU leaders meeting. Its postponement detracts from what the EU seeks to achieve.

It is mentioned in the media that Foreign Minister Baerbock and four other German ministers had complained about the summit timing set for October 19, since they were committed to go on holiday with their families. It is a school break time and families make plans in advance. However, there is speculation that this is a cover job. The reality is that the summit was put off despite the Ukraine crisis, the war which Russia is waging there, and the energy crisis in Europe, which is sapping its economic strength.

There is further speculation that France had decided that they could not get along with Germany at the present juncture and hence sought a rescheduling.

There are evident cleavages between France and Germany on energy. France supports a cap on gas prices and on electricity prices, just like Spain does. The 27 countries agreed to fill gas storage facilities and use revenues from energy firms to help consumers with huge bills. The summit ended without a final decision on an EU gas price cap.

Germany is determined not to implement either of those proposals. There is also a difference between Germany and France over the Midi-Catalonia (MidCat) pipeline. Less visible, but contentious are the differences over how much and how far defence cooperation between them for Ukraine should be sought.

France is miffed as are other EU members, since Germany announced its policy of spending 200 billion euros to meet its energy situation. On October 20, France, Portugal and Spain held a summit in Brussels where besides discussing the security situation in Europe, they discussed the need to enhance energy interconnectors within the EU.Advertisement

Their focus was on those between Portugal, Spain and France with the rest of the EU. The three countries believe that early conclusion of such connectivity will improve the EU’s energy market and support the energy transition which is to provide alternative access to energy sources.

The three countries decided to abandon the Midi-Catalonia (MidCat) project and prioritise a green energy corridor between the three of them. This would include renewable and gas interconnections between Portugal and Spain, a maritime pipeline between Barcelona and Marseilles as the best option to connect the Iberian Peninsula to Central Europe.

They agreed for technical adaptation to transport hydrogen as a transitional source of energy. For electricity, the three countries supported efforts to finalise new power connectivity through the Bay of Biscay and contribute to the Franco- Spanish connectivity. The three leaders are to meet again on December 9 to deal with the financing and budget on the green energy corridor and related ideas, which they then intend to bring to the EU for collaboration.Advertisement

These plans ignore Germany since the Germans are putting in the huge investment into their own economy to deal with the energy crisis. Germany was in September talking to Spain and Portugal. That accentuated their differences with Paris over the Iberian Peninsula connectivity to Central Europe. Germany offered Spain and Portugal a route which would bypass France if it did not agree with the plan.

At that time, Spain and Portugal sided with Germany to criticise France. The French were averse to support the 3 billion euros MidCat pipeline which could transport gas from North Africa and eight LNG terminals in Spain and Portugal, through the Pyrenees to France and then to Germany. Later, Spain and Portugal had plans to use the same pipelines to transport their potential green hydrogen to the rest of Europe. Within a month, the tables seem to have turned and Spain and Portugal are now siding more keenly with France.

It was not merely a summit, but the annual Germany-France ministerial council which was to take place in Fontainebleau. It now stands postponed to January, 2023. It is evident that besides scheduling problems, the lack of a consensus on what the joint declaration would say was clearly the problem. If France and Germany have differences, then the EU has a problem of management as since Brexit they have ‘managed’ EU issues collaboratively. Since the Scholz and Macron meeting on October 3 in Berlin the relationship suddenly dived.

On defence, adequate progress on the subjects of discussion was not concluded, also leading to the postponement. On defence, France believes that more intensive discussions are required on how Germany and France would align themselves with European positions. Their joint development of the future combat air system (FCAS) fighter aircraft lacks full agreement though the expectation is that Germany and France would increase cooperation in defence since Europe’s restricted autonomy has been brought out by the Ukraine crisis.

The EU has also noted that in his speech at his re-coronation, Xi Jinping warned of “protectionism, the erection of ‘fences and barriers’, decoupling, disruption of industrial and supply chains, unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure tactics”. This is also aimed at the EU which wants to convert its view that China is a systemic rival to an economic reality. This is contentious among members.

France wants Scholz and Macron to together visit Beijing like they tried with Moscow. However, Scholz is determined to visit Beijing by himself with a German business delegation. This is criticised by other EU members but Scholz is trying to juggle the demands of the German industry with what his green coalition partners and some EU states want: a decoupling from China quickly.

The EU unity over critical issues is stretching, the Franco-German axis is not working for now and louder voices from Eastern European EU members are jarring the EUs demeanour.

Gurjit Singh is a former Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia & ASEAN, Ethiopia & the African Union. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.