Missile malfunction: The big lessons from the saga and why we can’t afford to repeat it

By: Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh

This accidental firing on 9 March from India to Pakistan had the potential to lead to retaliatory measures that could have spiralled out of control

On 9 March, the day the country was preoccupied with speculating the forthcoming Assembly election results and the world was focused on the Ukrainian conflict, a missile streamed across the plains of north India landing in Mian Channu in Khanewal district of Pakistan. As per news reports, the missile’s flight path was tracked by the Pakistanis and on crossing the international border it flew over Pakistan for a distance of 124 km in a little over three minutes.

This accidental firing had the potential to lead to retaliatory measures that could have spiralled out of control. Fortunately, Pakistan exercised restraint which may also be due to the fact that we have a ‘No First Use Policy’ in place.

It has been clarified that it was an error, or to be more specific “a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile”. But the issue remains that those entrusted with weapons are trained both in their use as well as safety instructions and are most aware of the consequences of “what can happen if things go wrong”.

There are elaborate standing operating procedures, policies and orders that govern both storage and maintenance of sensitive precision guided weapons. Apart from this, there are water-tight checks and balances in place which govern their firing. Also, numerous safety measures and instructions are meticulously adhered to when actual firing takes place to ensure the fall of shot remains within the designated safety arcs and also includes advanced notifications regarding the flight path.

An inquiry will definitely examine the procedures and protocols in place as also the cause for the technical malfunction. Operations, maintenance, and inspections are conducted following a set of standard operating procedures, these will be evaluated. The Defence Minister while speaking in Parliament on 15 March has stated; “I would like to inform the august House that the government has taken serious note of the incident. A formal high-level inquiry has been ordered. The inquiry would determine the exact cause of the said accident”.

The lens will naturally focus on the triad of the user, manufacturer and designer. Knowing the Services, suitable action will be taken and remedial measures will quickly be enforced.

While the incident took place on 9 March, Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) DG Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar issued a statement on 10 March. “On March 9, at 6:43pm, a high-speed flying object was picked up inside the Indian territory by Air Defence Operations Centre of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF),” he told media persons in Islamabad, adding the object suddenly manoeuvred towards Pakistani territory from its initial course and “violated Pakistan’s air space”, ultimately falling near Mian Channu at 6:50 pm. “It was a supersonic flying object, most probably a missile, but it was certainly unarmed,” he added. Though the journalists did try to coax him, he spoke in a dignified manner. Prime Minister Imran Khan while speaking at a rally on 13 March said, “We could have responded… But we observed restraint.”

The Indian Defence Ministry responded on 11 March by regretting the incident and stating. “On 9 March 2022, in the course of routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile. The Government of India has taken a serious view and ordered a high-level court of inquiry”. It added, “While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.”

In a recent ARTRAC-USI seminar on “Strategic Communication & the Information Domain” held on 4 March, Shekhar Gupta had talked about the poor manner in which the Balakot surgical strikes had been handled by Ministry of Defence, whereas Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain gave the opposite example when it came to handling Covid and the role played by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting. The contrasting styles of handling sensitive issues clearly emerged. We need to control the strategic narrative and I am sure our dissemination of information in the open domain need not be reactive.

In reaction to our statement; the Pakistani’s Foreign office said; “The grave nature of the incident raises several fundamental questions regarding security protocols and technical safeguards against accidental or unauthorised launch of missiles in a nuclearised environment.” They are also asking for a joint probe.

Ironically, a few days after the seminar on strategic communications at USI which included eminent speakers such as Gen Raj Shukla, Gen Sanjiv Langer, Gen BK Sharma, Maroof Raza, Nitin Gokhale and Professor Sreeram Chaulia who all spoke on the paradigm of strategic communications in the context of the rapidly transforming landscape of national security, we continue to allow our adversary to leverage this domain.

There is a need to establish the value of information including its dissemination as a critical metric in strategic military affairs. Strategic communications should be viewed as an element of national power and as such, we need to have a synchronised holistic approach.

September 1983 will be remembered for two incidents; the first was the Soviet Union Air Defence Sukhoi SU-15 interceptor shooting down a Korean Airlines flight 007 on 1 September, mistaking it for a US spy plane as it accidently crossed into Soviet airspace. This resulted in the death of all 269 occupants including an American Congressman. They initially denied knowledge of the incident but then admitted to shooting as they claimed it to be a spy mission to check the preparedness of the air defence.

The second was on 26 September that year when Soviet Early Warning Radars sounded the alarm for what seemed to be an attack by US ICBMs. A false alert at a time of intense nervousness, but Lieutenant Colonel Peterov, the Chief Air Defence Officer on duty at the Oko nuclear early warning system, figured that the radars had to be mistaken and did not trigger off the alarms precipitating a retaliatory nuclear strike. Fortunately, none of these two incidents led to escalation even though tensions were heightened after the first incident.

As per an article by Sushant Singh in the Deccan Herald, the missile in this instance, got accidentally fired during an inspection by the Directorate of Air Safety Inspection (DASI).

In the Indian context, the short distances and the consequent limited response time to a missile launch by either side, any ‘misinterpretation’ could trigger self-defensive countermeasures with grave consequences.

There is no doubt that we need sanity to reign in case of mistakes, while at the same time ensuring that there are safety protocols in place that prevent such incidents which can rightly be termed as ‘the rarest of the rare’.

There is no doubt that a huge level of responsibility is on the shoulders of the men responsible for manning such systems. While human intelligence has once again saved the day, one shudders to imagine what could have been the outcome if the retaliatory measures were based on Artificial Intelligence. Fortunately, Pakistan never went ballistic and its reaction has averted what could have potentially led to a disastrous escalation.

The author is an Army veteran. Views expressed are personal.