West Asia Crisis — has defiance of international law become the norm!

From the very beginning of this war, it’s possible escalation and transition into a regional war has worried the international community as Israel and Iranian proxies and part of ‘Axis of Resistance’ i.e. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah kept on fighting Israel in support of people of Gaza and Palestine, observes Former Diplomat Amb. Anil Trigunayat.

By Anil Trigunayat

The era of short wars is over. The Russia-Ukraine war, now three years long, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has lasted over a year, clearly illustrate this paradigm—regardless of whether the wars are between state and non-state actors or involve any combination thereof. Both conflicts have the potential to escalate to a point of no return due to either intended or accidental actions, and they may lead to unintended regional and global consequences.

Complete victory appears near impossible whether you are a super power or middle power. Unfortunately the international order has completely broken down and defiance of the existing international law especially the international humanitarian law has become a favourite past time of the powerful countries.

It seems the meek and mute international community basks in the glory of high sounding verbose statements. As if that is enough. No serious effort to stop the war has been made although pretence of it is more than evident. Hypocrisy and double standards of the backers and benefactors of the warring sides are visible and flagged with utter alacrity. Hapless and hopeless multilateral institutions standing by in disdain and disgust. Peace and humanity take the hit. And the mayhem continues.

An year of Israel-Hamas war

Israel-Hamas war just passed the muster of one year but we are nowhere near a closure or a ceasefire which has been pushed back by both sides rather frequently. This was despite best efforts of regional and extra regional countries like USA; Egypt and Qatar let alone others like India, China and even Russia.

As the Palestinian cause and excessive civilian casualties and millions displaced leading to humanitarian crisis recharged the Arab streets and shook the global conscience of some European and Latin American countries who accorded recognition to the Palestinian state.

Palestine delegation found a space as well to sit at the recently held UNGA much to the chagrin of Israel. But it does not mean that Palestinian issue has become central or near some solution despite umpteen UNGA resolutions, far from it as no one is talking about the unpalatable reality of the ‘ Day after’ be it in Gaza or hapless Lebanon . Frail talks of ceasefire on both fronts have been shouted down in the thunder of the security issues, counterterrorism and war.

From the very beginning of this war, it’s possible escalation and transition into a regional war has worried the international community as Israel and Iranian proxies and part of ‘Axis of Resistance’ i.e. Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah kept on fighting Israel in support of people of Gaza and Palestine.

No doubt most the world including India condemned the October 7 terror attacks against civilians but Israeli disproportionate response through ‘mowing the grass” teaching a lesson for good’ and carpet bombing only frittered away the initial sympathy and the public outcry ensued. Terming it as genocide was taken to the ICJ by several countries including South Africa. ICC also took up the request to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Hamas leaders. 

Israeli intelligence agencies and Prime Minister Netanyahu have redeemed themselves following the October 7 fiasco and humiliation by successfully targeting the highest and middle-tier political and military leadership of Hezbollah, including Hassan Nasrallah, as well as members of Hamas. This success is notable even though they did not claim responsibility for the killing of Ismael Haniyeh, who was at the top of their execution list.

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Sponsored LinksWhile Bibi vowed to destroy Hamas, which his own cabinet colleagues and Generals called not achievable, he has embarked on the enterprise Hezbollah with the similarly diffused objectives against the most powerful enemy proxy —the Hezbollah which is claimed to be the strongest arm of Iran operating in Lebanon and Syria.

However, with most of the top leadership gone, Israel will face a guerilla and unpredictable warfare against large number of heavily armed splinter groups whose command and control system was virtually destroyed in the ‘Pager blasts’. It is also possible that Israel might have to face another ‘Intifada’ in the way of diffused but potent and motivated and highly radicalized youth which has witnessed and suffered the carpet bombing by the IDF. 

Amidst all this, Iran and Israel are yet to square up their direct confrontation after Tehran launched over 180 hypersonic and ballistic missiles as a response to killings of Nasrallah and Haniyeh to assuage its disgruntled domestic constituency, and the external proxies, which were beginning to see the Ayatollah led regime as weak and indecisive.

Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, and with the Americans contemplating on what targets to an attack in Iran for a firm response hopefully without an escalatory propulsion into a regional conflict. A miffed Biden finally got out of his ‘Kaikeyi syndrome’ and talked to an untamed Bibi but how much a lame duck President could do is a big question. 

In any case, the U.S. is pressuring Iran to accept a ceasefire and withdraw from Gaza so that reconstruction and uninterrupted humanitarian assistance can proceed. Whether Iran will respond to any strikes—targeting oil or nuclear facilities, missile sites, or key figures within its establishment—through direct or clandestine methods, including cyber tactics, will determine the future trajectory of its counter-response. This, in turn, could lead to a regional conflagration, igniting various conflicts that would consume the Middle East and beyond.

Cyber attacks are a low hanging fruit with deniable plausibility which have been used in the past and could be used again . As such it appears that Mossad has infiltrated deeply into the Iranian establishment as well as in its proxies. If the IRGC Commander or other senior officials are under the cloud for being Israeli assets — no reach could be impossible for the IDF.

As Israel has been conferring with the US — its iron clad blind benefactor, Iranian President Dr Pezeshkian met with the GCC leaders and Foreign Ministers in Doha securing their neutrality and assurance that they will not allow US and others to use their bases and territory in the war between Iran and  Israel.

His Foreign minister also went around various capitals including to Damascus and Beirut assuring them of Iran’s continued support. Interestingly Iranian President also met President Putin in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, where Putin apparently  conveyed a warning to Israel not to attack Iran. This adds a new dimension to the polarisation of super powers and points in a more dangerous direction. 

Another Israeli mistake is targeting the UN personnel and assets, which could cost it strategically. For example declaring UNSG Guterres as a Personae non grata as over 200 UN personnel were killed in Gaza let alone the thousands of Gazans and creation of an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, which forced the ICJ and ICC to issue their rulings against the Israeli leadership including charges of genocide.

More and more countries in Europe have recognized Palestine. In Lebanon, recent attacks on UNIFIL that injured two Indonesian peacekeepers, tasked with maintaining peace between Lebanon and Israel, have drawn global condemnation. The Italian Defense Minister described these attacks as war crimes. India, which has nearly 900 peacekeepers in UNIFIL, expressed deep concern, stating that “the inviolability of UN premises must be respected by all, and appropriate measures must be taken to ensure the safety of UN peacekeepers and the sanctity of their mandate.” However, who is listening, as the defiance of international law has become the norm, even as peace hangs by a thread—or a missile?