Germany sees anxious change

Recent state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in east Germany saw the far-right Alternative for Democracy (AfD) and the left-wing Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) make significant gains in vote share. With German federal elections just a year away, major parties like the ruling CDU and SPD which have seen voter support erode considerably, will now have to re-strategise to stay relevant in Germany’s transforming political landscape.

BY Ambassador Gurjit Singh

Germany is experiencing a crisis unlike any it has seen since the conclusion of World War II. Although its predicament has multiple causes, the development and recent electoral victories of the far-right Alternative for Democracy (AfD) in the former East German states have brought it to the attention of the German political establishment.[1]

Recently, elections were held in three Eastern German states: Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. These are important regions: Brandenburg is an industrial state and encircles Berlin to form the Berlin/Brandenburg Metropolitan Region. Saxony is a research centre, and Thuringia is a transit centre with a concentration of new economy companies from micro-electronics to pharma.

In all three, the far-right AfD has succeeded, rising to the position of lead party in Thuringia, and narrowly to second in Saxony and Brandenburg. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), formerly led by Angela Merkel and now by Friedrich Merz, is clinging to some political space. But it is the ruling coalition of the SPD, the Free Democrats, and the Greens, which has suffered heavily. Following the election results, the Greens’ national leaders have since resigned from their positions to take responsibility for the party’s successive defeats.[2]

The Greens and the FDP have failed to make it to some regional parliaments. With the help of older voters, the SPD held on with a sliver-slim lead in Brandenberg (30.9% to AfD’s 29.2%),[3] but barely passed the 5% threshold needed for continued representation in other regions.[4] The CDU and SPD will try and work together to form regional governments in coalitions to counter the AfD.

A new party the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice  (BSW) formed in January 2024, is named after its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht. It came third in Thuringia with 15.8%, third in Saxony with 11.8% and third in Brandenburg with 13.9%, giving them a critical role in government formation.

The BSW has essentially shifted the Left Party’s vote, which was influential in Saxony, and which ruled Thuringia. The leaders of the BSW are among 10 members of the federal parliament on the Left ticket (2009-2023).[5] They broke away in October 2023. Their numerical strength dictates whether the CDU allied to them in Thuringia and Saxony and SPD, allied with them in Brandenberg, can establish a government, and keep the AfD at bay.

How has the AfD gained such prominence in these three former East German states? Among these states, their vote share has been increasing, and the reasons for this have only been more apparent. In the elections in the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 2021, the AfD came second with 16.7% of the vote. The same year in Saxony-Anhalt, they had also come second with a 20.8 % vote share. Its rise has been evident and now it is the first party in Thuringia, a left bastion.

Its success is due to a growing dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties.

There are four major concerns among the population of former East Germany who have voted against the ruling coalitions. First is the festering issue of immigration. East Germany does not have more immigrants than other parts of Germany, but their impact is seen and felt more because of East Germany’s weaker economy and smaller population. As the economy declines, East Germany is hit more, and in this the benefits and jobs that immigrants take hurt the common people. The three states have expressed their opposition to this condition. The immigration issue is not new, but its problems cut deeper now.[6]

Secondly, the law-and-order issues, mostly relating to acts by immigrants, cause anxiety. Recent knife attacks, cases of gang rapes, and assaults on the elderly have angered people; invariably these cases involve immigrants. While it may be unfair to say so, voters perceive immigration to have caused anxiety to their way of life, especially for the elderly, for the poor, and for the women. [7]

Thirdly, due to the Ukraine crisis, energy prices have increased, as they have all over Germany. The residents of former East Germany feel the effects more acutely because of their lower incomes; in proportion then, they end up paying more for energy. They hold the Ukraine policy of the federal government responsible for their unhappy, inflationary condition. [8]

Interestingly, on all these issues, the AfD and the BSW have common ground. They criticise the Greens for the high cost of energy, which has curtailed nuclear power and promoted costly solar power, and for their heavily pro-Ukraine policy. The Greens have been wiped out in these states, damaging the coalition in Berlin. [9]

The fourth issue is one of accentuation rather than emergence. Typically, most property in eastern German states is owned by West Germans, and there has been an exodus of East Germans to West Germany seeking jobs. This deeply affects families who are now not able to depend on a lifelong employment system, which otherwise Germany was famous for.

The CDU thinks that Mertz, its new leader, has a more balanced approach to immigration, which is what the people in these states desire. The CDU has consequently either maintained or somewhat strengthened its position. Nevertheless, CDU can’t go it alone; it needs a coalition of the willing along with the SPD because it lacks a majority on its own. Most of the former ruling parties involved have fenced out the AfD and said they will not collaborate with them to establish governments.

The AFD may have increasing representation in the federal and regional legislatures, but so far it is marginalised in governance.  Germany’s post-World War II constitution provides for the banning of any party that is seen to be “anti-constitutional” i.e. extremist and a danger to the country’s democracy[10] – a clause the liberal parties have been using to keep the AfD from being mainstreamed.[11]

The AfD protests that this is anti-democratic, but Germany’s National Intelligence Service has identified its leadership as extreme right, pro-Nazi, and a security risk.[12] This is especially certain for the AfD leader in Thuringia, Bjorn Hocke, who has been the subject of national intelligence officers’ attention. Both the AfD and the BSW oppose the government’s anti-Russian and pro-Atlantic policies equally, but they are currently unable to alter that Federal position.

Voters, however, think differently and the public pressure that has propelled them both up the rankings has already forced the Federal government to impose border checks and restrictions on the Schengen area and enhance deportations.[13] This is unprecedented since the Schengen system was introduced. This phenomenon is now taking root in other parts of Europe. Governments on the same wavelengths with are in power in Hungary, Poland, and in France, and a similar sentiment is now visible at the national level. Back in Germany, will the mainstream be able to contain the rise of the BSW and the AfD within East Germany, or will it pose a challenge to Germany’s long-running, major parties? The country’s federal election is just a year away.

Gurjit Singh is a former Indian Ambassador to Germany. He is currently promoting the impact investment movement for implementing SDGs in Africa.

This article was exclusively written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. You can read more exclusive content here.

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References 

[1] How Germany’s Political Stability May Be Fueling the Rise of the Far Right. Time, 29 January, 2024, https://time.com/6336744/germany-afd-far-right-consensus/

[2] Miranda Murray and Thomas Escritt, ‘German Greens’ leadership quits after coalition’s election blows,’ Reuters, Sept 25, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/leaders-germanys-greens-party-resign-reports-table-media-2024-09-25/

[3] Scholz’s SPD narrowly beats far right in Brandenburg state elections , Euronews, 23 September 2024, https://www.euronews.com/2024/09/23/social-democrats-narrowly-beat-out-far-right-in-brandenburg-elections

[4] German regional elections: Far-right surge in Thuringia and Saxony weakens Scholz’s coalition, Le Monde, 2 September 2024, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/09/02/german-regional-elections-far-right-surge-in-thuringia-and-saxony-weakens-scholz-s-coalition_6724445_4.html

[5] BSW: the newly founded party on the left of the political spectrum, Deutschland.de, Introduction to parties, https://www.deutschland.de/en

[6] Economists Expect Negative Impact from the AfD’s and BSW’s Successes in Saxony and Thuringia, Ifo Institute, 16 September 2024, https://www.ifo.de/en/press-release/2024-09-16/economists-expect-negative-impact-afds-and-bsws-successes-saxony-and

[7] Andrew Hammel, Germany is acknowledging the unspeakable, The Critic, 9 July 2024, https://thecritic.co.uk/germany-is-acknowledging-the-unspeakable/

[8] Ariel Cohen, Europe’s Energy Policy Failures Fuel Election Shocks, Forbes, 6 September 2024, https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/09/06/europes-energy-policy-failures-fuel-election-shocks/

[9] Tim Schauenberg, Why are young German voters abandoning the Greens? DW, 13 June 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/why-are-young-german-voters-abandoning-the-greens/a-69354030

[10] Unsuccessful Organstreit application by the AfD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag regarding the election and electoral removal of committee chairpersons, Bundesverfassungsgericht, Sept 18, 2024, https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2024/bvg24-079.html

[11] Marcel Fürstenau, ‘Germany’s far-right AfD under mounting pressure,’ DW, May 14, 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-far-right-afd-under-mounting-pressure/a-69078624

[12] German court upholds AfD ‘suspected’ extremist status, DW, 13 June 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/german-court-upholds-afd-suspected-extremist-status/a-69060959

[13] Government Announces Plans to Tighten Controls at All Borders, ECRE, 13 September 2024, https://ecre.org/germany-government-announces-plans-to-tighten-controls-at-all-borders-%E2%80%95-first-deportation-to-afghanistan-since-taliban-takeover-%E2%80%95-senior-official-proposes-deportations-to-rwanda/