Navigating the minefields of J&K elections

The challenges of conducting polls in a combat zone are many. The dividend from Article 370’s abrogation is likely to flow when an elected government takes charge

A series  of events have occurred or been orchestrated by different elements in the erstwhile state of J&K, now a union territory since August 5, 2019. That was the fateful day when Article 370 was abrogated and the ongoing proxy war found a new and energetic Indian approach towards countering it. Combined with this are many nuances, from demographic, political, social and security angles, that present one of the most confounding electoral situations in India.

Have polls in recent years achieved anything in the quest for peace? Seven years after Pakistan initiated the proxy war in J&K (1989), India resorted to using one of its strongest credentials to seek stabilisation and peace. In 1996, the strength of terrorists in J&K was still abnormally high, but the terror pipeline from the Russia-Afghanistan war was drying up and our security resources were sufficient.

However, where India was on the backfoot was in the domain of human rights, after the US-backed campaign cast allegations against us through 1994-96, forcing us to face the ignominy of defending ourselves at Geneva at the first UN Human Rights Council meeting in June 1994. Therefore, India’s decision to conduct elections in J&K in 1996 was also to ward off alleged blotches on its track record.

It was the right decision. It restored much of the world’s positive perception about the  handling of J&K. Five years after wholesale changes were executed constitutionally, holding elections is a prudent step even though a conducive security environment in the Jammu region may not fully exist. From 1996 to the 2014 assembly polls and the recent 2024 parliamentary elections, the scenario has remained dynamic, with low and high turnout conveying certain signals contingent on how separatism and the proxy war fared. The recent Lok Sabha polls seemed to suggest a more positive local outlook, although none could guarantee foolproof takeaways about the Kashmiri mindset.

While taking the decision to conduct polls despite advice from some quarters about the dangers posed by violence in the sub-region south of the Pir Panjal mountain range, the government has obviously been influenced by a few factors. First, the dividend from the 2019 decision would finally fructify with self-rule through the installation of an elected government.

Second, the chief grouse of the public in both segments, Jammu and Srinagar, has been the dilution of status from state to UT; reversing this has been a major demand. Successfully conducting polls will add legitimacy to a future decision to reconvert to a state. A majority of people in Jammu who have never supported separatism felt vilified due to the downgradation and will feel far more motivated after the polls.

The challenges of conducting elections in a combat zone have indeed been high. Terrorist presence may be lower today by comparison, but that takes away nothing from the foolproof arrangements that must be ensured. Elections are always an opportunity for terrorists to communicate their ability to influence local sentiment.

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In earlier years, diktats were accompanied by threats to local populace and poll officials, making it risky for people to emerge from their homes and move to polling booths. Although the first phase has gone by peacefully, nothing can be taken for granted, especially in the villages and small townships located in the vicinity of jungle and mountain hideouts.

The intent here would not be a mass disruption of polls as attempted in 1999, when numerous polling stations were targeted with rocket fire and hand grenades. The projection of relevance through a few strikes or even kidnapping officials could be attempted. That is enough to convey that resistance is yet alive.

It’s the local J&K police at the core and the CRPF that have to ensure security. Unlike anti-terrorist operations, where the army’s Rashtriya Rifles invariably takes the lead, the army keeps a distance of at least one kilometre from polling booths as it cannot be employed for direct booth security, lest there be allegations of forced voting or other intimidation.

Unlike earlier years, when the number of parties was limited and their ideologies and agenda well known, the dynamics are a little different this time. Predictions can be awkward, which is why very few are being made publicly. The BJP is strong in Jammu, but one can hardly predict the mind of the electorate in the Poonch-Rajouri belt where greater demographic balance exists. The complete Jammu region is bereft of any well-known personalities, especially with the Democratic Progressive Azad Party of Ghulan Nabi Azad being hamstrung by Azad’s absence from campaigning due to ill health.

What has thrown a spanner in the works is obviously Sheikh Abdul Rashid or engineer Rashid’s party, the Awami Ittehad Party. Rashid defeated the J&K National Conference’s Omar Abdullah in the parliamentary election from North Kashmir. The party has fielded 34 candidates as independents since its an unregistered party and appears to have had an agreement with the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, which too has fielded nine independent candidates. These 43 cannot win all or form a government, but they can seriously disrupt the clean-line majorities we may have expected.

The Awami National Congress-Indian National Congress combine was expected to do well in the Valley. Those prospects got eroded by Rashid and the Jamaat’s presence. Rashid has little following in central and south Kashmir, but enough to eat into the vote banks of the NC-Congress and the People’s Democratic Party. So unless we see a complete transformation of voting, it’s a deeply hung assembly that seems to be on the cards.

The X factor of Rashid could well be the major outcome here. Knowing Rashid well, I can vouch for his commitment towards those he represents, but it’s his separatist leaning that remains the grey zone. More than the polls, it’s the post event dynamics that  will be interesting.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps;
Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir 

(Views are personal)

(atahasnain@gmail.com)