Quad’s quiet achiever: India’s growing footprint in the Indo-Pacific

Gurjit Singh

The Quad foreign ministers met in Tokyo shortly after a large number of foreign ministers gathered in Vientiane, Laos, for the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit. During this period, all Quad ministers had productive interactions with regional counterparts. They arrived in Tokyo with greater clarity from their discussions, allowing the Quad to be more focused in its deliberations.

Five important aspects emerged from this meeting. First, chairing the Quad for the year does not necessarily equate to hosting a foreign ministers’ or summit meeting. For instance, while Australia held the chair in 2023, the Quad Summit took place on the sidelines of the G7 in Hiroshima due to a change in US President Biden’s travel plans, precluding a visit to Australia. Similarly, the preceding Quad foreign ministers’ meeting had occurred around the UNGA in 2023.

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This year, India holds the chair but is hosting neither the foreign ministers’ meeting nor, likely, the summit. The January proposal proved unworkable for all parties. Current discussions revolve around a meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA in September. However, uncertainty remains due to the upcoming elections for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, where Prime Minister Kishida’s future hangs in the balance. Therefore, it can be deduced that while the Quad has an annual chair, it prioritises convenient locations where some members are already convening. For instance, in Tokyo, Japan and the US were already engaged in their two-plus-two dialogue, while the Indian and Australian foreign ministers were already present in Laos, making Tokyo a convenient location for the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting.

Secondly, while the Quad has steadily adopted a “doing good for the world, particularly for the region” approach in its summit communiques, follow-up remains crucial. With the number of working groups increasing, the foreign ministers examined various implementation ideas, focusing on the IORA region, the Pacific Islands, and greater inclusion of ASEAN.

During its term, India aims to prioritise the agenda towards resilient disaster infrastructure, the digital economy and technology, critical emerging technologies, and physical connectivity to build capacity across the Indo-Pacific. These elements appear to be India’s focus for the remainder of its chairmanship.

Implementation efforts include a space-based climate warning system for Mauritius, support for Open Radio Access Networks (Open RAN) with joint projects in Palau, disaster relief for Papua New Guinea, inclusion of ASEAN countries in Quad fellowships, and greater involvement of India’s IFC in the marine Domain Awareness proposal. Additionally, a Quad Cyber Ambassadors Meeting will address capacity building and responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, with confirmation of the Quad Cyber Bootcamp in India. These developments signify substantial progress.

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The Quad must prioritise physical connectivity more seriously. The IMECC, announced last September, exemplifies both the potential and the challenges ahead. Cooperative projects within the Indo-Pacific itself are essential. The Quad needs to identify a few cogent ideas, secure financing for feasibility studies and bankable project development, and then divide responsibilities and opportunities amongst themselves and their partners. This has proven difficult even among some trilateral configurations within the Quad.

Thirdly, strategic issues invariably dominate Quad meetings. An unwritten but clear objective is to challenge China’s efforts to dominate the region by seeking a level playing field and adherence to international rules by all, particularly China. China’s response to the Quad meeting is predictable: labelling it an attempt to curtail its influence. In turn, China has increased its military exercises in the region and, after a hiatus, has welcomed Russian ships back into the South China Sea.

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The Quad countries fully back ASEAN centrality and encourage the early conclusion of a code of conduct with China, hoping this will lead to China abiding by rules it sets for itself. However, China’s actions towards the Philippines offer little encouragement. Although the standoff between the Philippines and China had diffused by the time of the meeting, the Chinese Coast Guard continues to encircle the Filipino contingent at Second Thomas Shoal, leaving the potential for renewed tensions.

Japan and the US have already increased their military engagement with the Philippines. Japanese fighters now make rotational visits, and Australian forces are likely to follow suit. India provided BrahMos missiles, currently the most potent weapon in the Philippine arsenal.

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While not official Quad activities, these actions stem from a shared understanding. Notably, India has shed its previous reticence to support the Philippines regarding the 2016 arbitral award in its favour against China. Previously, India only referenced UNCLOS. However, since last year, both bilaterally and now within a Quad communique, India has called upon China to respect this ruling.

The South China Sea and China’s role in it have been dominant features of this Quad meeting, serving as a continuation of discussions from the meetings in Vientiane. The Quad would prefer ASEAN to successfully negotiate a robust code of conduct with China. However, in reality, any agreement reached is likely to focus more on limiting the role of non-Chinese powers in the South China Sea than on ensuring a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

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Fourth, whereas the focus was previously on the Ukraine crisis, it is now the Gaza crisis that is attracting Quad attention. On Gaza, all four members support peace, advocate for a two-state solution, and recognise Israel’s right to defend itself. Regarding the Ukraine crisis, there is less consensus but a general agreement that the war should end. India’s engagement with Russia is observed with interest, and India’s potential engagement with Ukraine is of even greater interest. This is because, among the four Quad members, India is the only country that has not publicly criticised Russia and maintains stable relations with both Russia and Ukraine.

Finally, the dichotomy of having the Quad work towards the public good in the region while continuing to coordinate military responses to regional issues will persist. As the External Affairs Minister has stated, the Quad is here to stay.

Although the US, Japan, and Australia sometimes operate separately on certain issues without India’s direct involvement, India remains a participant in the overarching framework. Recent months have seen numerous maritime and multi-role exercises in the Indo-Pacific. While some involve Japan and its European partners, India is a crucial and integral participant in the larger exercises, whether with the US, Australia, or hosted by India itself. This highlights India’s nuanced approach to the Quad—strategic congruence without formal coalition membership. India remains committed to addressing shared challenges and promoting stability and prosperity alongside other Indo-Pacific nations and beyond, envisioning tangible benefits for the region through the Quad framework.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh.