Playing with Fire: Future of Israel-Hamas & Hezbollah Conflict

Lt Gen (Dr) V K Saxena (Retd), PVSM, AVSM, VSM

Building the Perspective

This work is a sequel to the author’s previous work titled ‘Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s War Aims a NO GO’.^[1] While the said work argued how the achievement of the stated war aims of the PM is a NO GO, this one is based on the premise that the current actions of PM Netanyahu have the potential not only to plunge his country into greater doom, but also, thrust a wider West Asia war on an already war-torn planet.

The above premise recently got a shot of validation when Israel’s military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari made a statement, quote, “This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear – it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public. Hamas is an idea. Hamas is a party. It is rooted in the hearts of the people – whoever thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong”^[2]

The fuming fireworks from the Israeli Govt establishment in response notwithstanding, the Admiral has spoken plane truth!

Unfortunately, the situation at this point in time in war is well past Hamas. In that, it is unfortunate and painful to see how the survival instincts of one man are posing a huge danger to Israel and the world at large. How the dogmatic adherence to something infeasible by the PM is likely to lead to nowhere except to a greater doom (sic).

The Hezbollah Connection

Right from beginning when the Hamas opened the war by launching a terror attack on Israel on 07 Oct 23, Hezbollah expressed solidarity with Hamas vowing to support the war. In fact, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah stated that “Hezbollah entered the war on Oct 8, the day after the Hamas attack happened.”^[3]

That Hezbollah has walked the talk is corroborated by their actions ever since Oct 8. Sample the following:-

• Right on 08 Oct itself, Hezbollah fired rockets and shells in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. This was responded to with airstrikes by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) causing casualties in men and material.
• Within days, the next round of fire exchange took place on 11 Oct, followed by firing of anti-tank missiles by Hezbollah on 15 Oct. As the casualties began to rise, Israel started to evacuate their civilians from its northern areas. Sporadic exchange of fire continued in Oct and Nov 23, except for a brief period of Hamas- Israel ceasefire from 24 Nov to 01 Dec. This same got resumed immediately post cease fire and has continued till date with increasing severity.
• As per an assessment of Mar 2024 there have been more than 4400 violent incidences on the Israel-Lebanon border and the Golan heights and more than 150,000 civilians have been displaced on both sides of the border causing great mayhem and insecurity^[4]

Pattern of Violence has Worsened Considerably

While the Israeli-Lebanon border has been spitting fire all along, starting Oct 8, the pattern of violence and the accompanying war rhetoric has gone up dramatically in the past two months or so.^[5] Sample some recent utterances and developments:-

• On June 5, responding to a strong drone and missile attacks from Hezbollah in the border city of Kiryat Shmona, PM Netanyahu stated that Israel was prepared for an extremely powerful response in the North. ^[6]
• On June 23 PM Netanyahu hinted that with the intense phase of operation with Hamas getting over soon, troops would soon be freed up for re-deployment on the Northern border to confront Hezbollah.^[7]
• On 27 June Israel has warned that it could send Lebanon ‘back to stone age’ as thousands of troops are being readied to be sent to the Northern border.^[8]
• The Israeli cabinet has raised the cap on the number of Army reservists to 350,000; an increase of 50,000.^[9]
• Israel has reportedly moved some Iron Dome batteries towards the North.^[10]
• On June 20 Hassan Nasrallah has warned Israel that if the current conflict is to slide into war, Israel will be facing a much more powerful Hezbollah.^[11] How powerful? Read on.

Hezbollah is not Hamas

Hezbollah is not Hamas on any count.

By Ideology

Unlike the ideology of Hamas, which is committed to an armed resistance against Israel and the creation of an independent State for Palestine in place of Israel,^[12] the ideology of Hezbollah in total allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader, is committed to the destruction and elimination of the state of Israel.^[13] The two are different in their purport as a careful read will reveal (armed resistance vs destruction and elimination)

By Arsenal

• In Oct 2023, Hamas started with 20,000-25,000 combatants, approximately 500-700 km of tunnel network and some 18000-30,000 rockets and unguided missiles. The rockets were mostly short range with a smaller proportion being medium and long range.^[14]
• The short range version (called the Q series; Q 12/20/40) were rudimentary with a range bracket from 5-20 km. The medium range ones, mostly smuggled from Iran, via Egypt and Syria covered a range arm from 80-120 km.^[15] Some examples – Fazr 3 (range 43 km), Fazr 5 ( range 5-75 km), M75 ( range 75km), J80, J90, A 120, and R 160^[16]
• Compared to the above, Hezbollah (as per an Israeli assessment) is in possession of 150,000 rockets a considerable proportion of which are medium and long range^[17] The inventory is comprised of rockets and missiles for land attack missions, Surface to air missiles (SAMs), drones and anti-ship missiles.
• Rocket inventory is basically Iran driven – Falak (Falak 1, range 10-11 km, , Falak 2, range 21 km,), Fazr series (Fazr 3 range 43 km, Fazr 5 range 5-75 km, Shahin series (Shahin 1 and 2, ranges 13, 20 km respectively , Khaibar I variations ( M302 range 100 km, Zelzal 1,2,3 ( ranges 250-400 km) and Fateh 110 range 300 km.
• Russia has also been a major contributor to the Hezbollah arsenal (Syria connect). Most prominent have been the anti-tank and air defence weapons:-
  • Anti-tank – RPG 30 rocket propelled grenade, AT3 Malyutka (range 2.5km), Saxhorn-2 (range 80m-2 km) AT5 Konkurs (range 4-70 km), , AT 13, AT 14 Kornet range 4km and the Swedish ( range 500m-2.1 km).
  • Air Defence – Pantsir S Short Range SAM system (SRSAM) (range 20 km), SA 17 Grizly or BukM2 medium range SAM (MRSAM) system. These systems are capable of countering the threat from all types of strike aircrafts, attack helicopters, cruise missiles, smart bombs and UAVs etc.
  • Special mention is made of MANPADs with Hezbollah. They hold a large arsenal – the SA7/Strela 2 (range 3.6 km), Igla S (range 4-6 km) , SA18 Grouse (range 5-6 km), SA 14/Strela 3 Gremlin (range 4.5 km) etc.
• Another arsenal worth the mention anti-ship missiles – Russian P800 Oniks/Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missile Chinese YJ-83/ C802 anti-ship missile (range 120 km or 65 NM).
• Talking of the comparative financial muscle, while Hamas receives some $70-100 million per year from Iran, it is estimated that Iran transfers about $700 million to Hezbollah annually.^[18] This is 2018 assessment and can thus be easily marked up to $1000 million or thereabout now that the war clouds are getting increasingly visible.

This should provide the reader some idea of what Hezbollah is capable of and what it can bring to war in case of a clash with Israel. As to the combat strength, the statement of its Secretary General on 06 Mar 2024 gives an idea. Hassan Nasrallah said that while the group already had over 100,000 fighters, thousands of fighters from Iran backed groups in the Middle East are ready and eager to come to Lebanon to join Hezbollah. Also probable at a point of time could be a huge influx of Jehadis from Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.^[19]

That is the quality and quantum of threat posed by Hezbollah.

Rising Desperation

It is the sense of the author that the net state of things in Israel is one of desperation, frustration, and vulnerability. Some points in corroboration are stated:-

• Reports indicate that the family of the hostages are reaching the breaking point and have begun to take extreme measures like lighting fires, throwing buckets of fake blood, shouting frantic chants ‘Get them Back’, risking arrests etc. They are calling the Govt to work harder.^[20]
• Most importantly, the protestors are putting huge pressure on the Govt to enter into negotiation with Hamas. Out of 251 (some accounts say 263) hostages taken on 07 Oct 2023, only 105 have been returned as of Nov 2023 and two more rescued on 12 Feb 2024 (that makes it 107). Out of the rest (144), 76 hostages are still believed to be held alive and 44 are presumed dead. This makes it 120. What about the unaccounted 24 (144-120) or so? Their fate is unknown. It is indeed a desperate situation.^[21]
• Compared from Jul-Sep 2023, the Israeli economy contracted sharply in the period Oct-Dec 2023 due to the negative impact of war. In the above quarter the net GDP fell by 19.4% on annualised basis. While the exports declined by 18.3%.^[22]
• In Apr 2024, the rating agency S&P global has cut the Israel’s long-term rating from A plus to AA minus.^[23] According to a latest assessment, the on-going will cost Israel a whopping $400 Bn in lost economic activity over the next decade.^[24]
• All macro indicators of the economy are falling. Private consumption has declined by 26.95%, investment in businesses has fallen by a whopping 67.8%, exports have fallen by 18.3% and tourism has fallen by 42%. On the flip side the Govt spending (war-driven) has gone up by 88.1% bringing some relief.^[25]
• With hostages return getting nowhere, rockets and missiles reigning from North on a daily basis, no end of war in sight, in fact, a major regional war becoming increasingly real by the day, a deep sense of desperation, frustration, uncertainty and profound fear has been taking the better of the average Israeli citizens.^[26]
• Reminders of a grim war – uniformed soldiers everywhere, armed civilians, every one booting up ( 300,000 reservists!) fear of loved ones not returning back, broken homes, damaged shelters, empty hotels, posters of hostages everywhere, cost of daily survival becoming more and more difficult… there is a sense of despair. There is a sense of being failed and abandoned by the Govt.^[27]
• The biggest draw of despair and angry outpouring is on the hostage front. A demonstration in Tel Aviv in Apr 2024 drew in a 100,000+ citizens angry and frustrated shouting – GET THEM BACK.

Against all this PM Netanyahu is holding on to his narrative: –

• Complete victory.
• Elimination of Hamas.
• Going ahead with Rafah offensive.
• Rearing up to take on the much bigger and much stronger Hezbollah.
• Threatening to send Lebanon to stone age.
• No conciliatory move to negotiate hostages. ( sic)

Doing all this for his political survival? That is old gin now.

If Hezbollah plays out and Iran joins in – what happens?

If the already existing internal divisions in the Israeli Govt further widen (Benny Gantz already gone) to a breaking point – what happens?

If the divisions (read insubordination) in the IDF further rises – what happens?

PM Netanyahu is clearly playing with fire.

Endnotes

^[1] “Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s War Aims a NO GO’, at www.vifindia.org. Accessed on 20 Jun 2024.
^[2] “Israeli military spokesperson’s Hamas defeat remark widen rift.” at www.aljazeera.com. Accessed on 20 Jun 2024.
^[3] “Hezbollah’s Hasan Nasrallah speech on Israel-Hamas war” at www.aljazeera.com. Accessed on 20 Jun 2024.
^[4] The coming conflict with Hezbollah,” at www.csis.org. Accessed on 21 Jun 2024
^[5] “Escalating Israel –Hezbollah clashes threaten to spark a regional war,” at www.theconversation.com. Accessed on 21 Jun 2024
^[6] “Netanyahu warns we are ready with extremely powerful response to Hezbollah attacks”, at www.timesofisrael.com. Accessed on 24 Jun 2024.
^[7] Ibid.
^[8] “Israel warns it could send Lebanon back to stone age,” at www.independent.co.uk,” Accessed on 24 Jun 2024.
^[9] Govt set to approve additional 50,000 IDF reservists,” at www.m.jpost.com. Accessed on 24Jun 2024.
^[10] Israel reportedly plans to move troops from Gaza to North, at www.allisrael.com. Accessed on 24 Jun 2024.
^[11] Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warns Israel about the cost of a war in Lebanon,” at www.npr.org . Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[12] Hamas-foreign terrorist organisation,” at www.dni.gov. Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[13] What is Hezbollah” at ww.cfr.org. Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[14] Hamas weapons arsenal,” at www.inss.org.iL Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[15] Izz ad-Din al-Qassa,” at www.en.m.wikipedia.org. Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[16] 11 ibid
^[17] ‘Hezbollah and Hamash. Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[18] “Funding of Hezbollah,” at www.en.m.wikipedia.org. Accessed on 25 Jun 2024.
^[19] “Thousands of Iran-backed fighters offer to join Hezbollah,” at www.politico.com. Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[20] Israeli families desperate to get hostages home protest to demand action,” at www.abcnews.go.com. Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[21] “Israel –Hamas war hostage crises,” at www.en.m.wikipedia.org. Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[22] “Israel’s economy slumps 19.4%in the fourth quarter as war takes a toll,” at www.cnn.com Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[23] “We need a miracle- Israel and Palestinian economies battered by war,” at www.bbc.com. Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[24] “Economic impact of Israel-Hamas war,” at www.en.m.wikipedia.org. Accessed on 26 Jun 2024.
^[25] Ibid.
^[26] Israelis feel scared and abandoned” at www cdn.ammproject.org. Accessed on 27 Jun 2024.
^[27] Ibid.