THE SHADOW WAR EXPLODES

By Ajay Singh

PUNE: In a way, both strikes were messaging, indicating each other’s capabilities to attack deep. And hopefully this crisis will pass and the world will be spared a wider escalation.

When Iranian missiles and drones struck Israel on the night of 13 April, it was the first time that any nation had hit Israeli soil since the 1973 war (less a flurry of missiles fired by Saddam Hussain in the first Gulf war of 1991). It was also the first time that Iran directly attacked Israel bringing their shadow war out into the open.
Iran and Israel have been in a state of animosity, bordering on open enmity, ever since the Ayatollahs came to power in Iran in 1979. But though Iran proclaims, “Death to USA, Death to Israel,” it largely relies on its proxies to carry out that threat. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Shia militia in Syria and Iraq are all sponsored and armed by them. Both sides view the other as an existentialist threat, but have refrained from direct attacks on each other—barring cyber-attacks, the killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel and attacks on Israeli consulate members by Iran. Now the confrontation has taken on a new hue.

THE IRANIAN ATTACKS
The Iranian retaliation had a sense of inevitability to it. After all, it had to respond after Israel’s blatant attack on its consulate in Damascus that killed seven senior Iranian Republican Guards Corps officers. But their ‘Operation True Promise’ was a message more than anything else, perhaps deliberately designed not to cause undue casualties. The Iranian communique at the UNSC announcing its strike stated that it did so using its inherent right of self-defence, and “The matter can be deemed concluded.” The language itself indicated that they did not want any further escalation. The attack seemed designed to demonstrate to its people, its allies and regional powers that it had the capability to retaliate by hitting hard and deep. Around 320 projectiles were launched, which included 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles, and 36 cruise missiles fired from different locations in Iran, Iraq and Syria. It is significant that they used Shahed drones to start this attack. These antiquated drones puttering away at around 200 km/h, with a payload of just around 50 kgs, took 3-4 hours to fly in from Iran into Israeli territory – long enough to be easily detected and destroyed. They seemed to want to telegraph their intentions. By some accounts, information of the impending strike was also given to Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations to be passed on to Israel well in advance.

Israel claims that 99% of the attacking projectiles were shot down, but a few did get through. The only target of note that was struck was the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, that houses the F-35 fighter squadron which had carried out the strike on the Iranian consulate a fortnight earlier. Iranian sources claimed that the base was completely destroyed, but satellite imagery revealed only minor damage, and the base continued being fully operational. This base was attacked with more advanced cruise and ballistic missiles that could get through its formidable network of David’s Sling, Patriot and Iron Dome Air Defence systems—again a signal.
At the end of it, Israel claimed that the only damage was a 10-year-old Bedouin girl who suffered shrapnel injuries from a destroyed missile. The mood in Israel is one of celebration, “We intercepted, we stopped, and we will win.” But, stopping these attacks, cost them over 100 Arrow missiles and using $3 million missiles at swarms of cheap, incoming projectiles will definitely not be sustainable in the long run. Also there is a realisation that an even more dangerous enemy had hitइस शब्द का अर्थ जानिये them and Israel was under attack again.

There is another very significant aspect in that the Arab states of Jordan and Saudi Arabia actually helped Israel in detecting and countering the threat. Iranian missiles and drones had to overfly Saudi and Jordanian airspace en route to Israel. Saudi air defence detected them and passed information immediately back to Israel. Jordan actively engaged incoming missiles and drones and shot down quite a few with their own aircraft and air defence systems. The Arab nations were prepared to be seen as actively assisting Israel against another Islamic nation – even as Israel continues with its excesses in Gaza. This means that in the politics of the region, the proposed pact between USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Arab states still holds, and could eventually come about after this war (Perhaps in return for Israeli concessions for a two-state solution as demanded by Saudi).

THE ISRAELI RESPONSE
Although the Iranian strike was successfully countered without casualties, Israel seemed hell-bent on retaliating “at a time and place of our choosing.” Israel insists that the best way to ensure their security is through retaliation and deterrence, so that their enemies never feel emboldened to try a similar strike again. They will use this same concept against Iran. Fortunately Iran and Israel are separated by over 1500 kilometres and ground action will not be feasible. But air and missile strikes are possible, as were selective assassinations, or cyber-attacks. Like Iran, Israel had to be seen as having retaliated, without really climbing up the escalatory ladder.
The Israeli retaliation came just three days later over the city of Isfahan and in Tabriz in North-western Iran. Israeli drones reported attacked the airbase over Isfahan, which houses its fleet of F-14 Tomcats. Isfahan is also close to the Natanz enrichment plant, the centrepiece of Iran’s nuclear program. It is still not clear whether drones or missiles were used in the attack. Debris of Blue Sparrow air-to-surface missiles were recovered, indicating that they could have been missiles launched by Israeli aircraft away from Iranian airspace. Iranian Air Défense reportedly destroyed the incoming projectiles without any damage, and the score line can now read as one-all.

In a way, both strikes were messaging, indicating each other’s capabilities to attack deep. And hopefully this crisis will pass and the world will be spared a wider escalation. But within Israel, the hardliners are increasingly harping on finishing Hamas, eliminating Hezbollah next, and then going for Iran—“ the head of the snake.” Another refrain that is being increasingly heard is, “What if one of the Iranian missiles had been a nuclear tipped one?” Israel may halt its actions with this retaliation, but should it contemplate eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities at a later juncture, perhaps the USA will give a nod-and-a-wink, and even provide assistance to do so.

But striking Iran’s nuclear facilities will not be easy. The major enrichment plans at Natanz, Fordow and Qom have been created deep underground, sheltered beneath mountains where even the most powerful bomb would not be effective. Also, the sizeable Iranian air defence is geared for an attack. A failed Israeli-US attack on its nuclear facilities may merely hasten Iran’s nuclear program(if it has not fructified already) or could lead it to obtain nuclear wherewithal from North Korea. Coupled with its impressive array of long range missiles, a smarting Iran could then become an even more dangerous foe.
For USA too, Iran is a sworn enemy, though it does not want an all-out war with it. Iran is too large and powerful to be directly attacked (as with Iraq). Its 5,60,000 strong army is strong and motivated, and in spite of sanctions, it retains a capable Air Force and Air Défense. And it has one of the world’s most lethal array of missiles. Armed action would not be a feasible option, but the USA would definitely like to destabilise it further through sanctions and selective internal actions that would bring about regime change and perhaps replace the Ayatollahs with someone more amenable.

At the moment, this round between Israel and Iran seems to have passed off—let’s hope. Israel can now focus on Hamas and Hezbollah, and it has intensified its actions in both Gaza and along its northern border with Lebanon. That war continues unabated, but for the time being, at least, a wider war seems to have been averted. But the shadow war still lurks in the background and can explode again, at any time.

Ajay Singh is an international-award winning author of seven books and over 200 articles. His latest book, “Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan…..A World at War” was released recently.