Japan is in rare political conundrum as ruling party is rocked by financial scandals

Gurjit Singh

Tokyo is at a strange crossroads. The Kishida government is struggling to maintain popularity, while opposition parties are making efforts but are unable to break through in any significant manner

Is Japanese politics likely to change in the near future? On the one hand, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), rocked by financial scandals, is moving towards reducing the influence of its factions, though nobody has been convicted yet of financial irregularities. Simultaneously, the upcoming Nippon Ishin No Kai, or Japan Innovation Party, held its party convention in Kyoto on Sunday, March 25.

The party has stated its main goal of becoming the largest opposition party in the next elections to the Diet. At the same time, they have introduced a larger goal, which is to push the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance out of government in the next election. The effort of the Nippon Ishin is to take Japan towards a two-party system.Advertisement

In Nippon Ishin’s view, the next election should, in its perception, start a process of deciding upon Japan’s future. An election is due only in October 2025, but the opposition party believes that the scandal racked the LDP, possibly with a new leadership by September, when Fumio Kishida’s tenure as LDP President ends. Struggle could bring a snap election. The G7 Summit in June and the Tokyo elections on July 7 are events guiding the timing of a snap poll.

Major political change in Japan has been rare since World War II ended. In August 2009, the LDP lost an election to the Democratic Party of Japan. They elected Yukio Hatoyama as Japan’s Prime Minister. This occurred 15 years after the LDP first lost office in 1993, when Morihiro Hosokawa led a coalition government, forcing the LDP from office for the first time since its establishment in 1955.You May LikeIntroducing Wi-Fi 7 access points that deliver moreNWW | Aruba  by TaboolaSponsored Links

Both of these events were described as historic but lacked sustainability, and the LDP came back to power after each such excursion and has continued till date. Hosokawa in 1993 and Hatoyama in 2009 were backed by high popularity and great expectations from Japanese voters.

However, it took less than a year for each of them to have internal conflicts in their governments. Popular perceptions have lost hope in them. The total absence of LDP from governments since 1955 has been four years over the two breaks.

The LDP functions as a single dominant party and has the ability to grasp power through the manoeuvres of its factions, working strongly with local interests. At present, the Kishida government is challenged by scandals, mainly embroiling the largest Abe faction.Advertisement

Kishida’s approval rating has been under 30 per cent this year, the lowest for a Japanese government for so many months in a row, for the first time in a decade. Compared to the long-term popular Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and even his successor, Yoshihide Suga, Kishida’s popularity is the lowest.

Kishida is pursuing political reform within his own party, creating a new cabinet without the influence of the Abe faction, nudging senior LDP leaders out of the reckoning, and trying to create a more reformed LDP. He emphasises the economic recovery, higher salaries for blue-collar workers, and record-breaking scores on the Tokyo Stock Exchange as gains of his administration.Advertisement

The expectation is that Kishida could bring the economy out of persistent deflation, which 15 prime ministers before him have failed to do.

Besides the effort for economic management, Kishida hopes to score popularity due to his effort to reduce the value of LDP factions by dissolving them, beginning with his own. This is partly because Kishida was at the political mercy of these factions to come to power and sustain it.

However, the improved economic situation and his efforts at political reform do not match up, and his popularity continues to remain low as a reluctant reformer.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, in a poll, said that the LDP’s general support across the country is 60 per cent, which has declined by about 20 per cent since 2022. The LDP membership has decreased by 3 per cent. LDP supporters are exasperated by the string of scandals and perceive a lack of leadership within the party. LDP MPs will face challenges in their constituencies, particularly if institutionalised support from their factions diminishes.Advertisement

Typically, when MPs face problems in elections, they seek a leadership change. In this context, the Nippon Ishi no Kai pronouncements to ride on a wave of reform and the promise of clean government with innovative and contemporary economic policy seem to emerge.

This has to be seen in perspective, because in a Yomiuri Shimbun poll in December 2023, it was found that even though the LDP struggled with popularity, opposition parties were not benefiting from this. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, had a popularity rating of 5 per cent while the Nippon Ishin actually dropped from 7 to 5 per cent in December 2023.Advertisement

The LDP, with its low 28 per cent, is far ahead of the opposition parties. Opposition attacks on LDP scandals, however, are not seen as focused confrontation by the government and have not channelled voter unhappiness into support for themselves.

The Yomiuri Shimbun poll was held 10 days after the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Ishin, the Japanese Communist Party, and the Democratic Party for the People came together for a no-confidence motion against the Kishida cabinet in the Diet. This was comprehensively voted out by 278 MPs to 166.This did not succeed, despite the scandals.

Nippon Ishin had a 9 per cent support rating nationwide after strong results in the local elections. It went past the senior CDPJ, but several Ishin members in local assemblies were also accused of scandals. Therefore, its support base dipped.

Japan is at a strange crossroads. The Kishida government is struggling to maintain popularity and is not able to breach the 30 per cent barrier. Opposition parties are making efforts but are unable to break through in any significant manner.

In view of this, the government could seek a snap election in which its diminished popularity may yet be enough to see it through. Besides, an election would allow Kishida’s imprint on the MPs who are nominated to get elected because the hold of factions is weakened.

However, before this happens, some spectacular event is likely so that Kishida can show progress to back his political campaign. The US election is still further away, but its results could again torment Japan. The rumoured effort to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un can be seen in this context of trying to do something different and gain domestic popularity with a never-before foreign policy initiative!