Turbulent times ahead for Japan as Fumio Kishida’s leadership hangs in balance

Gurjit Singh

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will soon complete the average life of a Japanese prime minister of two and a half years

On the New Year bells in Japan tolled somberly. On 1 January there was a huge earthquake in the Noto Peninsula, followed by tsunami warnings and ultimately 206 people perished in this disaster. The next day a plane collision at Haneda Airport, caused five deaths while 379 passengers on a JAL aircraft miraculously escaped. That was ascribed to Japanese discipline and playing by the rules.Advertisement

Is 2024 now going to see political upheavals in Japan or will it play by normal rules and discipline?

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will soon complete the average life of a Japanese prime minister of two and a half years. Could he be replaced soon after that? The election of a president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is due in September and the president automatically becomes the prime minister.You May LikeUAE esports team NASR use this VPN & cybersecurityKaspersky  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

There are three factors which are at play, which may shorten the tenure of the Japanese prime minister.

First are the abysmal ratings of the Kishida cabinet. According to an Asahi Shimbun survey in mid-December, approval of his cabinet decreased to 23 per cent from 25 per cent in November. A total of 60 per cent of those surveyed wanted Kishida to quit as prime minister.Advertisement

This is the lowest support for any Japanese prime minister since 2012.

Secondly, this was despite Kishida shuffling his cabinet and sacking four ministers, all of whom belonged to the faction of the late prime minister Abe. The Abe faction, formally called the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai has 100 members and is the dominant faction in the LDP. They were instrumental in supporting Kishida but now feel singled out. The Kochikai, Kishida’s faction only has 44 members. The Abe faction members were held responsible for the illegal distribution of funds without due reporting. Consequently, the largest Abe faction now has no cabinet members.Advertisement

Around 74 per cent of people surveyed did not give credit to Kishida for handling this scandal well. Such political funding scandals are cyclical and are embedded in the way the LDP works and acquires political influence.

Kishida’s effort was double-edged. First to try and clean the political system, particularly his cabinet and show that he was taking resolute action; secondly to deplete the influence of the Abe faction and make friends with other factions like the Shikōkai of former prime minister Taro Aso and Heisei Kenkyūkai of former foreign minister and current LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, which between them have about 100 seats.Advertisement

Thirdly, with the political scandal and the low approval ratings Kishida lost the edge which he had in 2023 of calling an early election, when his approval ratings were better. Since then, his ability to manage the LDP has been called into question. Kishida had called a ceasefire to keep the government stable till he held the G7 Summit in May 2023 in his hometown, Hiroshima. That time has now passed and it seems that Kishida while churning the cabinet and trying to curtail the Abe faction has bitten off more than he could chew.Advertisement

The discussion in Japan now seems to be when and not if Kishida will quit. Two aspects of this emerge. The first is that Japan could do with a leadership change now which is better for the party and the country. The second is that factional leadership should not be allowed greater sway and perhaps it is time for a nonfaction leader. If such ideas persist, then Kishida is likely to go sooner, making way for a nonfaction politician who would then have time till September to see whether he can fight a full-fledged challenge for the LDP presidency.

Analysts look at four possible candidates to succeed Kishida though a surprise cannot be ruled out.

Former defence minister Ishiba Shigeru, former environment minister Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of a former charismatic prime minister, digital minister, and prime minister in waiting Kono Taro and economic security minister and the only lady in the pack Takaichi Sanae are mentioned.

The party may be looking for a candidate who could raise the public profile of the LDP and improve its ratings before the party formally elects a full-time President in September. It may also seek an independent non-factional leader.

Independents within the LDP are less than a fifth of the party’s MPs. Therefore, there has to be a consensus among all factions on seeing the change, because independents by themselves cannot succeed. Yoshihide Suga had become prime minister after Abe quit, but that was because the Abe faction backed him. Suga belonged to the Ganesha group of a few independents.

The administrative capability of an independent candidate with a clean public image would therefore be the most important factor when the LDP seeks change. Analysts mentioned Ishiba as a popular choice with good public acceptance, but he is perhaps the most disliked among the independents within the LDP as he is a consistent opponent of factionalism and is perhaps too reform-minded for the party.

Ishiba is a strong personality who has unsuccessfully contested the LDP presidency earlier. He rankles how the LDPs ‘shadow shoguns’ run the party.

A riskier candidate is Koizumi who is extremely popular in the media but his role as environment minister has not been adequately leveraged. Neither has he shown great administrative acumen. He has over gained the support of former prime minister Suga, who has the administrative capability and can bring political heft now to Koizumi’s side. Other LDP factions are wary of Suga since they were the ones who nudged him out of leadership, rather quickly.

Kono Taro is not a non-factional candidate but is popular and known overseas. He lost to Kishida last time. If the party is to take a leap of faith and appoint a Lady President, Takaichi Sanae could be an option. She is ambitious, is building a support base, and is a conservative independent but needs political support, which could come from the large Abe faction which may want indirect control over the leadership. Her nominations could be seen as a part of LDP reform!

Public opinion seeks reform of politics. The LDP may endeavour to present a face which shows that they are sensitive to this demand. Even if a non-faction person is the leader, the larger factions will like to control the process so that their political machine is not decimated as that is required for future elections.

Faction-backed contests among non-faction candidates may soon emerge.

The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.