How Middle Powers Sustain Balance Of Power In Global Conflicts Involving US, China by Lt Gen P R Shankar(R)

DEFENCE.CAPITAL ON DECEMBER 11, 2023 • ( LEAVE A COMMENT )

By Lt Gen. PR Shankar (Retired)

Conventional wars between states have returned with a vengeance. The wars between Ukraine and Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and  Israel and Palestine/Hamas are prominent among them.

In addition, there have been civil wars, coups, and ethnic strife in the Sahel region of Africa. There is a debilitating civil war in Myanmar. Pakistan is battling strife on its western border with the TTP (Taliban).

Faceoffs in the Western Pacific have ratcheted up between China on one side and Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea, and Japan on the other under the overarching shadow of US-China military tensions.

Overall, more casualties have occurred in 2022 than at any other time in this century. The graph below is self-explanatory in this connection. I am confident that these figures will go up in 2023.

Over and above these conflict situations,  people across the globe are struggling to cope with impending catastrophes that do not respect borders or nationalities. These include climate change, food insecurity, pandemics/infectious diseases, terrorism, energy deficiencies, and inflation.

There seem to be no tangible solutions to problems – manmade or natural. The world order is obviously disturbed. Long-term global instability looms on the horizon. The great powers who are to set this order are themselves primary actors in these conflicts and turmoil as they challenge each other.

Further, they are conspicuous by their absence or recalcitrance in meaningful climate change negotiations. This is especially so since they are the leading global warmers and must contribute if any mitigation is to happen.

It is axiomatic that in this context, the middle powers are stepping up, setting the agenda, and nudging global powers into the new world order. This new paradigm needs understanding.

The global order manifests in two ways. The first is through the direct influence of a great power’s military, technological, diplomatic, and economic heft, which dominates the discourse and shapes the behavior of others.

The other is through governing mechanisms of the international institutions, which have been established by the great powers of the yore, either directly or through a series of agreements drawn between them over time.

Through these instruments of power, they have shaped a world order that is most conducive to them as per their vision. The emergence of China as a significant power and its desire to set up its own set of institutions to establish a Sinocentric world order has challenged the existing US-led paradigm.

Resultantly, the world is inexorably mutating into two camps. One consists of the United States and its traditional allies, mostly liberal democracies (also known as the West). On the other side are China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Intense competition exists between the major powers and their camps to shape the emerging world order according to their visions.

The middle powers of this world and the global south do not want to be part of this contestation. They are more keen on protecting their populations and battling the elements and day-to-day vagaries rather than getting caught in big power politics.

It is a reality that the global south does not have the strength to influence the world order. However, the middle powers have what it takes to alter big-power behavior and cater to the needs of the global south.

The middle powers are emerging as voices of sanity that can contribute to stabilizing the global order. However, one needs to understand what a middle power brings to the table.

Middle powers of consequence may or may not be aligned with any one of the emerging blocs but have reasonably deep engagements with all global powers. Invariably, they have sufficient leverage in the international power structure to shape international events.

A middle power could derive its status based on its prowess in niche technologies, resources, military and economic strength, diplomatic capabilities, demographic strengths, geostrategic location, or leadership capabilities/track record/credentials.

Middle powers have relied more on trade and diplomacy. They often pursue a multilateral foreign policy and avoid unilateralism. Middle powers tend to be status quoist and are generally not revisionist or transformational.

Middle powers are also essential cogs in creating and maintaining the world order. They help the system participation and running of international institutions. They bring stability to the world order.

No global power can create/sustain international institutions without the stabilizing influence and support of middle powers supporting such institutions. Their middle-of-the-road approach will be critical every time.

Middle powers could be fully developed with large economies like the UK, France, Germany, and Japan. Due to their influence in global affairs, developed nations with strong economies like Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Poland, and South Korea also get into the middle power bracket.

Oil economies like Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran also fall into the middle power category. Large developing nations like  Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam naturally fall into the middle power category.

Some relatively small states like Singapore, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates can vault into the middle power category due to their strong economies and functionality as international intermediaries.

Most middle powers of consequence have historical, cultural, religious, ethnic, economic, security, and demographic ties/similarities with smaller nations from the global south in their periphery.

Nations like India have much broader and deeper linkages to its East and West. Over some time, middle powers have developed their constituencies and spheres of influence. The diaspora of the middle powers plays an essential part in generating their influence.

Conversely, many countries in the global south look up to the middle powers for things that matter to them since they cannot get the attention of the global powers. The middle powers also provide the trust quotient in international affairs. This is something that is completely missing from the bouquet of the global powers.

Consequently, global powers need the sphere of influence of middle powers to connect to the global south. Global powers also need some of the middle powers for their economic and technological prowess.

In this milieu, the actions of the middle powers to secure their constituencies are a feature of the international system. Many of them, like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others, have ensured that they are not seen as part of one global camp or the other.

They have pursued multilateralism without any reservations. The middle powers have been championing the cause of the global south as India has done to enable the African nations to be admitted into the G20.

Many middle powers are seeking to play the mediator in conflicts and wars. The role of Turkey in enabling peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is a case in point. Even in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, the requirement of India to mediate for peace is coming out amply.

Powers like South Korea assume pivotal roles in regional and near-conflict situations. It can also be seen that Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia are balancing the Indo-Pacific between China and the USA.

In doing so, the middle powers have been able to temper and restrain global powers from being over-assertive. For instance, the steps taken in self-defense by Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam individually have converged to impose collective caution on an assertive China in the South and East China Seas, especially around Taiwan.

In this process, the middle powers also hedge their bets while playing the balancing role. They do not want to get caught between global powers in their contestation.

One major issue that is predominant is that the global powers are in decline or are facing problems of their own domestically and externally. Both the USA and China have domestic issues that weaken their external postures.

Global powers do not have the heft to impose themselves as before. They have their vulnerabilities that cannot be papered over. Significantly, the global powers are also susceptible to significant humanitarian challenges that are on the horizon, like climate change, global warming, and pandemics.

For many of these natural threats, there are no answers that the global powers can provide without the middle powers. This was amply demonstrated during the pandemic when India played an outsized role in its eradication against China, which was stricken with the virus with no answers.

Another important aspect is that the middle powers are on the rise economically and technologically in a relative manner. The gap between the global and middle powers on the upswing has decreased. Hence, the leverage of such middle powers in having a say in international affairs has increased.

The emerging world order will continue to be dominated by Global powers as hitherto fore. However, in the future, a lot of agendas will be set by middle powers who are gaining in importance and exerting their influence quite decisively.

This is evident in the increasing number of multilateral institutions which are coming up. It is, therefore, possible for a nation to be in many institutions multilaterally and shape systems that do not give the global powers a license to have a free run.

Global powers are being forced to take others along. India has already proved this, and its role in the recently concluded SCO, BRICS, and G20 meets where it stonewalled China’s Sino-centric ambitions.

The global powers had to recognize the importance of the middle powers and the relevance of the global south in all the declarations emanating from these meetings. This situation is unlikely to change.

On the contrary, as some of the middle powers rise to near-global proportions, the effect will be more pronounced, and the role of middle powers in setting global agendas will expand. India is at the forefront of this change. We should have no doubts about this.