#SecurityScan 69: Biden Visit For 26 Jan cancelled, Kashmir Post-370 judgement & more

Somali pirates operating in the Red Sea and the Mozambique Channel have posed a significant threat, prompting the UN Security Council to adopt resolutions, albeit with limited effectiveness.

BRIG Hemant Mahajan

This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India’s national security

NEWS IN BRIEF

IMF Hails Indian Economy as “Star Performer”

 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its annual report, lauding the Indian economy as a “star performer” among major economies. The IMF’s recognition is a testament to India’s remarkable progress and potential for sustained economic growth. The reasons behind the IMF’s positive assessment are, focusing on India’s large population and public infrastructure spending as key factors contributing to its stellar performance. 

  The burgeoning middle class within India’s population has been a key driver of economic growth. As income levels rise and the middle class expands, consumption patterns evolve, leading to increased demand for goods and services across various sectors. This surge in consumption has stimulated domestic industries, generating employment and fostering entrepreneurship. India’s commitment to infrastructure development has been evident through initiatives like “Make in India,” “Digital India,” the Bharatmala project, and the Smart Cities Mission. These endeavors have not only created employment opportunities but have also strengthened the country’s overall competitiveness and attractiveness as an investment destination. The IMF’s acknowledgement of India’s public infrastructure spending underscores the positive impact it has had on the country’s economic performance. The IMF’s recognition serves as a validation of India’s economic progress and provides a strong foundation for future endeavors. It is essential for the Indian government to build upon these achievements, addressing challenges such as income inequality, job creation, and sustainable development. By adopting prudent economic policies, encouraging entrepreneurship, and fostering a favorable business environment, India can continue to shine as a “star performer” and become a global economic powerhouse 

Around 30 Pakistani terrorists suspected to be active in Rajouri-Poonch sector: Defence sources

 Defence sources indicate Pakistan’s alleged revival of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri-Poonch sector, suspecting 25-30 terrorists hiding in forests. This move aligns with a strategy between Pakistan and China to prevent Indian troop redeployment from Jammu and Kashmir to Ladakh. Recent attacks highlight ongoing tensions, with an ambush causing casualties among Army personnel. 

Indian Navy deploys second guided-missile destroyer in Gulf of Aden

 The hijacked vessel entered the territorial waters of Somalia on December 17 and INS Kochi was successful in ensuring that the injured crew member was released by the pirates in the early hours of December 18 for further medical management. “The injured crew member was medically attended to onboard the Indian Navy ship. 

France submits bid for Indian tender to buy 26 Rafale-Marine fighter jets for aircraft carriers

 France has responded to India’s bid for 26 Rafale Marine jets for its aircraft carriers, submitting the Letter of Acceptance in New Delhi. A French team flew in to finalize the offer, which India will scrutinize, including pricing and contract specifics. Negotiations will occur between governments. The Indian Navy aims for swift project completion, emphasizing early induction of these planes. The deal, approximately worth Euro 5.5 billion, aims to equip India’s carriers, solidifying its advantage in the Indian Ocean. 

Defence research budget insufficient to make India global power: Parliamentary panel

 The committee has also expressed reservations about the existing state of affairs regarding the utilisation of funds for R&D activities in DRDO, without dwelling into details. It has also noted that the research and development percentage was at 6.59% in 2010-11 and 6.6% in 2014 -15 but has been progressively reduced to 5.38% in the current budget. It also observed that 25% of the budget (around ₹1300 crore) is now earmarked for the private sector, leaving an even smaller amount for DRDO to allocate to its projects. 

RELENT LESS- INFORMATION WARFARE AGAINST INDIA BY SECTION OF WESTERN MEDIA

 A full-fledged information warfare has been launched against India by elements inimical to India. Suddenly news reports are popping up internationally about how the India has been wanting “to sort out” the Gurpatwant Singh Pannun problem. The latest media report is about a “leaked” “Ministry of External Affairs memo” speaking of cracking down on “Khalistanis”, by listing the potential targets including Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed in Canada in June. The MEA has rubbished the claim by calling the memo fabricated and part of a “sustained disinformation campaign against India”, by using a media outlet “known for propagating fake narratives peddled by Pakistani intelligence”. It’s becoming increasingly clear that these attempts are escalating in order to add weight to the fiction of a “rogue Indian government” plotting to kill Mahatma Pannun on American soil. The narrative of India carrying out “transnational repression” is gaining currency, and has the potential to have some impact on the strategic partnership between India and the United States. The mainstream media in the US, does not make any mention of his threats to bomb Air India, the Indian Parliament or ordering hits on Indian diplomats. Surely these supposedly credible western media outlets are not so information-challenged that their research did not throw up facts about Pannun’s call to violence when writing articles on him. Surely death threats cannot be brushed under the carpet by describing these as freedom of speech. What’s going on is an attempt to influence American policy and opinion makers. In a very insidious manner western media is trying to glorify the Khalistani movement as a struggle against India for self-determination and justice. In fact, this seems to be a case of the ISI, with backing from the Chinese are trying to derail India-US relations and this time with some western support. There is another dimension to this information warfare, which is working at a much subtler level by instilling doubts on American minds about India as a trusted partner against China. The buzz in US think-tanks apparently is: India cannot be trusted for it will never stand with the US when it comes to any possible military confrontation with China. To think that this is being said about India, the only country in the world that has shown the appetite to fight back the Chinese in Galwan inflicting large number of casualties and large number of soldiers in the icy heights of the Himalayas against the PLA for over three years. Interestingly, the seeds of this doubt were planted by some Indian origin people in the US, and the American ignorance about India has been doing the rest of the job. The question on Indian minds is, whether, or not, the Biden White House has the appetite and the competence to rein in the anti-India lobbies and interest groups in Washington D.C., as well as those in Biden’s own administration running their agendas against India. 

Biden Visit For 26 Jan cancelled due to Khalistani terrorists Pannu: Cancellation No Big Deal

 On December 19, when the Biden administration conveyed that President Biden would be unable to attend Republic Day and a potential Quad summit, some voices quickly painted the situation as a harbinger of the deteriorating India-US relationship. Assertions ranged from questioning the partnership’s fragility to speculating on its impending demise, with doubts raised about New Delhi’s perception of Biden as an ally. The familiar narrative of American fickleness emerged, suggesting that the US could align with Pakistan or China at the slightest provocation. The catalyst for this perceived strain was the Pannun case, involving the Khalistani terrorist threat. 

   While the Pannun issue may not significantly impact the overall strategic relationship between India and the US. The concerns raised by five Indian American Congressmen and the expressions of disapproval from Beltway observers, hinting at potential sanctions and “reputational damage,” add complexity to the situation. With competing court cases underway in New York and New Delhi, India is set to legally contest the charges. The defense will likely scrutinize and challenge various aspects of the accusations. However, the undeniable reality is that the United States finds itself defending an accused terrorist in this scenario.  

ECONOMIC SECURITY

Gleaming Achievements: Surat’s Latest Diamond Bourse Showcases India’s Success

 Step aside, Mumbai. Gujarat takes the spotlight with the recently inaugurated Surat Diamond Bourse (SDB), representing the pinnacle of India’s diamond success story. Positioned as the world’s largest office space, this impressive facility is managed by the non-profit SDB, exclusively established for this purpose. Serving as Surat’s second trading hub, the bourse spans 35.5 acres and accommodates up to 4,500 offices. Radiant Surat: Long recognized as a crucial player in the global diamond supply chain, the city of Gujarat has consistently processed 9 out of 10 diamonds globally. The establishment of the Surat Diamond Bourse positions India to become a global hub for all aspects of the diamond trade.Silent Brilliance: The sheer magnitude of the Gujarat-based bourse underscores the often understated nature of the diamond business. India’s leadership in the diamond industry is frequently overlooked in discussions about the country’s global achievements. Over the past decades, Indian diamond-dealing communities, forming a closely-knit ecosystem of families across continents, have exerted significant influence over trading hubs, including the renowned Antwerp diamond district. Dimming Luster, Homegrown Brilliance: Declining demand in affluent markets, including China, has led to a downturn in diamond exports.  The industry anticipates a potential shift among Indians toward diamond jewellery, potentially capturing 20% of the market. The Surat Diamond Bourse is poised to inject renewed vitality into the business, ensuring that the sparkle of India’s diamond industry continues to shine brightly. 

Ensuring Coastal & Maritime Security:

BSF plans marine battalion, drone squadron to secure Sundarbans against infiltration, smuggling

 A marine battalion comprising more than 1,100 personnel, a squadron of about 40 drones and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) are part of a plan devised by the BSF to secure the strategic Sunderbans mangrove region along the India Bangladesh border against smuggling and infiltration. The Sunderbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest cover region is an archipelago of over 100 islands and a complex network of streams, rivers, tidal creeks and channels spread over an area of 9,630 sq km in India. The rest falls in Bangladesh. It lies on the delta of the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers in the Bay of Bengal. “Sunderbans effective domination and security is the need of the hour, as there are inputs suggesting this area is being used for cross-border infiltration criminals. The new battalion will have more than 1,100 trained personnel and about 40 large drones and 12-14 ATVs will be deployed. The plan will be set in motion once the proposal is approved by the Ministry of Home Affairs. The BSF, at present, patrols the Sunderbans area with a fleet of about 50 small and large speedboats and vessels. BSF has also communicated its plan to the West Bengal government seeking its permission for stationing a small team of its patrol parties (personnel on foot patrol) in Forest Department ‘chowkis’ located in the Sunderbans. 

Ensuring Maritime Security:

 The recent interference by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, disrupting shipping traffic, serves as a stark reminder of the susceptibility of global maritime trade. This disruption led to a surge in oil prices on Monday afternoon, underlining the geopolitical risks associated with shipping lanes. Major shipping companies refrained from using the Bab el-Mandeb strait in response to the Houthi attacks over the past four days, causing repercussions worldwide. The Significance of Maritime Trade: The majority of global merchandise trade relies heavily on shipping, constituting approximately 80% of world trade by volume, according to estimates by UNCTAD. For India, this dependence is even more pronounced, with shipping accounting for 95% of its merchandise trade. Chokepoints in the Indian Ocean: While oceans cover 97% of the Earth’s water bodies, a handful of straits in the Indian Ocean play a pivotal role in maritime trade. The straits of Malacca, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb are crucial chokepoints through which nearly 40% of the world’s oil production flows. Unfortunately, these chokepoints are susceptible to threats from various non-state actors, posing a risk to global trade. Persistent Threat of Piracy: Political instability in regions surrounding these straits has historically given rise to piracy as a disruptive force. Somali pirates operating in the Red Sea and the Mozambique Channel have posed a significant threat, prompting the UN Security Council to adopt resolutions, albeit with limited effectiveness. 

Ongoing Piracy Challenges: Despite efforts to combat piracy, the International Maritime Bureau reports a 10% increase in incidents from January to September 2023. Pirates have successfully boarded 89% of targeted vessels, with the Singapore Straits being particularly vulnerable. South China Sea Concerns: Beyond non-state actors, potential disruptions in the South China Sea, a vital link between the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, raise concerns. China’s maritime claims in this region could impact this critical shipping route, further emphasizing the need for global attention to maritime security.India’s Role and Challenges: India actively deploys its navy to protect merchant vessels, contributing significantly to global seafaring. However, Indian seafarers often fall victim to pirate attacks. The Indian government and states should provide increased institutional support, with a focus on the National Welfare Board for Seafarers, to enhance the safety and well-being of these essential contributors to global maritime trade. 

Countering External & Internal Security Challenges

Kashmir Post-370 Judgement

 The Supreme Court’s constitution bench has upheld the 2019 GOI decision to revoke the special status granted to J&K under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. With this judgment now behind us, all focus should be on investigating what threats continue to impede the full integration of J&K with the rest of India, and proceeding to effectively neutralize them. SC’s seal on ending special status is a psychological plus for integration. Politics must now connect with people. But the security apparatus must remain vigilant. Many inside & outside India don’t want peace 

Urgent Need for Comprehensive Strategies to Combat Drug Menace Across India- NCRB annual report

 The National Crime Records Bureau’s (NCRB) annual reports consistently draw attention, but a broader perspective, especially concerning drug-related issues, is crucial. It is imperative to develop comprehensive pan-India strategies to address the expanding influence of drug syndicates. Focusing solely on which state consumes more drugs than others oversimplifies the data. In 2022, Kerala topped the list with 26,619 FIRs under the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act, followed by Maharashtra (13,830) and Punjab (12,442). Kerala’s emergence as a new drug hotspot should not provide comfort to other states; rather, it underscores the need for unified action. The NCRB data reveals alarming trends, indicating a surge in drug production, smuggling, and consumption nationwide. In 2022, 681 individuals, including 116 women, lost their lives to drug overdose in India. Punjab recorded the highest number of such deaths at 144, followed by Rajasthan (117) and Madhya Pradesh (74). Punjab also led in the registration of cases related to drug possession for trafficking, with 7,433 cases, and recorded 5,009 FIRs for personal drug possession, up from 4,206 in 2021. The NCRB data unequivocally demonstrates that the battle against drugs is now a nationwide challenge, and Punjab likely underreports cases. Addressing this requires coordinated inter-state plans and central assistance. While the increase in NDPS case registrations indicates proactive efforts by certain state governments, the dismal conviction rate is a significant disappointment. The proliferation of the menace is fueled by delayed or weak charge sheets and the focus on catching peddlers instead of targeting the drug lords. Immediate and cohesive action is imperative to curb this escalating national crisis. 

Human Security-India’s alarming track record in industrial safety

  Accountability is a pressing concern in the aftermath of recent industrial incidents in Chennai and Maharashtra, shedding light on India’s alarming track record in industrial safety. These events not only underscore the immediate need for a robust response system but also prompt critical inquiries into systemic deficiencies. India’s environment and safety laws, far from impeding economic progress, suffer from inefficacy that not only jeopardizes lives but also disrupts livelihoods. The question of accountability looms large in addressing these systemic failures.. 

#COUNTERING CHINESE MULTI DOMAIN , GREYZONE, HIGHBREED WARFARE

China-Philippines dispute grows tenser; China vows to keep up military pressure

 China claims sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for shipping, putting it at odds with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei, who all maintain claims over islands, reefs and undersea resources in the region. 

Naval exercise MILAN- 2024 to be held at Visakhapatnam, 50 countries likely to participate

 The upcoming MILAN 2024, hosted in Visakhapatnam from February 19 to 27, anticipates record-breaking participation from over 50 nations and nearly 20 ships. The biennial naval exercise, initiated in 1995 by the Indian Navy, has evolved to align with India’s ‘Act East policy’ and PM Modi’s SAGAR initiative. The event features harbor activities, including seminars and exhibitions, along with sea maneuvers involving submarines, aircraft carriers, and advanced warfare operations, synchronizing with India’s G20 Presidency theme, ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’.

#HAMAS ISRAEL WAR #LESSONS FOR INDIA

Russia has fired 7,400 missiles, 3,700 Shahed drones in war so far, Kyiv says

 Russia says it only fires on military targets though Moscow has also admitted to targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Russia says it does not target civilians, despite thousands of documented civilian deaths throughout the war. Russia began launching the drones at infrastructure facilities in September 2022. They initially confused Ukraine’s air defences, as they were harder for standard air defence radars to detect than missiles, which forced Kyiv to adapt. 

Mass drone attack hits several Kyiv districts

 Kyiv faced its sixth drone attack this month, targeting separate residential areas. Mayor Vitali Klitschko confirmed strikes in Solomyanskyi district, causing a fire in a block of flats and injuring two. The incident, near a maternity hospital, damaged multiple apartments. Another attack in Darnytskyi district set fire to a construction site without injuries. Serhiy Popko reported a third strike in Holosiivskyi district, damaging apartments. Air raid alerts were lifted afterward. Videos and images on social media captured the aftermath, including flames and destruction.