How major challenges mar the unity and centrality of ASEAN

Yet Indonesia deserves credit for at least maintaining the facade under which the unity of the group was portrayed

By: Gurjit Singh

ASEAN centrality was reinforced last week when Indonesia hosted the clutch of ASEAN-centred meetings in Jakarta. The ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) was followed by the ASEAN plus one meeting with its dialogue partners and some trilateral meetings. The annual EAS ministerial meeting and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which is only at the ministerial level, also took place now. The EAS has 18 members including the Quad, China, Russia and New Zealand; the ARF has 27 members.

Indonesia’s meticulous planning for these as ASEAN chair was palpable. Besides dealing with the challenges globally, Indonesia had to restore ASEAN unity and centrality. In all statements emerging from the AMM, the ASEAN plus one meeting, the EAS and the ARF, the emphasis on ASEAN centrality is clear.

The AMM ‘expressed our appreciation to the non-ASEAN Parties to the RCEP Agreement for recognising and respecting ASEAN Centrality’ A Support Unit at the ASEAN Secretariat which will become a RCEP Secretariat is promised.

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ASEAN unity was a bigger question, but Indonesia deserves credit for at least maintaining the facade under which unity was portrayed.

Let us see how the major challenges to ASEAN unity and centrality were addressed.

Myanmar is an internal issue of ASEAN. The 5 Point Consensus (PC) pioneered by Indonesia during the Brunei chairmanship is cracking. Indonesian FM Retno established guardrails by not appointing herself as the official Special Envoy of ASEAN, which the previous two chairs had done. Instead, she set up a strong Secretariat to specifically deal with Myanmar. There was annoyance among Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines that Thailand, which is still unable to elect a new government, was carrying on a separate policy with Myanmar backed by Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.You May LikeEarn Upto 12% ReturnsIndiabondsLearn More  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

They have had meetings with the ASEAN junta, and the Thai FM reported to the AMM that he had also met Aung San Suu Kyi. Whatever their internal differences, the AMM statement encourages all members to abide by the 5PC and work in coordination with the chair because at times it seemed that Thailand conducted its own policy. Five ASEAN countries including Myanmar are on one side and another five behind Indonesia. India has supported the 5PC but not hesitated to engage with the Thai initiative. The aim is to have peace restored in Myanmar, and then work towards a better dialogue.

With the South China Sea, its importance may be overshadowed by the looming crisis in the Taiwan Straits. At the China- ASEAN meeting they ultimately agreed on guidelines to accelerate effective and substantive negotiations on the long-delayed Code Of Conduct. The preamble was negotiated before the pandemic and some incremental movement is now visible.

There remain discernible cleavages between China and ASEAN. ASEAN underscores the importance of  United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and held an Asean Regional Conference on the 40th Anniversary of the 1982 UNCLOS: Promoting Legal Order for the Seas and Oceans in November 2022 under Indonesian chairmanship

The AMM took NAM to task. It was ‘seriously disappointed over the failure of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to update paragraphs on the South China Sea’ at the Nam Coordinating Bureau on 6 July 2023. It asked NAM to respect Asean Centrality on the issue and respect the Bandung principles.

China is trying to get ASEAN to come along its path but under Indonesia, ASEAN is standing up a bit more and urging China to act more judiciously. At the same time, ASEAN opened a new trilateral meeting with the ASEAN chair, China and Russia. This discussed trilateral cooperation on food and energy security.

This impacts the divisive Ukraine crisis. ASEAN nations are not united on their view of the crisis, but are united about the severe impact. Russian FM Lavrov was an important guest because grain and oil supply lines were discussed. He offered trading in local currencies, which would help evade dollarized sanctions. Russia-ASEAN trade dipped 4.4% after sanctions, though with Indonesia, it rose 45% to $4.8 billion. An Indonesia FTA with Eurasian Economic Union is possible in 2024.

US Secretary of State Blinken cautioned ASEAN from falling into this trap but it appears that ASEAN is in an existentialist mode. Lavrov suggested in an interview that individual ASEAN countries may agree to initiatives to keep the grain and fuel supplies going.

All the Quad countries played positive roles during these meetings. The Quad ASEAN partnership was not pushed nor did an ASEAN-Quad meeting take place, but increasing trilateral meetings with ASEAN are emerging and positive gains in how India, Japan, US and Australia engage ASEAN are evident. A Quad-ASEAN meeting is a possibility ahead.

The AMM agreed to enhance engagement in the IndoPacific. Cooperation between ASEAN and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), and the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), will be formalised at the next Summit. Indonesia will invite the Chairs of PIF (Cook Islands) and IORA (Bangladesh) as Guests at the EAS in September.

South Africa is accepted as a Sectoral Dialogue Partner of ASEAN and Morocco’s application is accepted in principle. Norway and Türkiye initiated trilateral dialogues with the ASEAN Chair and SG whose import is unclear.

During the East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)  meetings, principles of peace and stability, to avoid hot conflicts by using the portals of the EAS and ARF for confidence building and preventive diplomacy were pursued. The norms and values of ASEAN are guidelines for conflict prevention, particularly in the maritime domain.

ARF’s irrelevance was discouraged by seeking concrete cooperation, through an action-oriented mechanism to explore preventive diplomacy.  ASEAN suggested a strengthening of the institutional capacity of the ARF. A Friends of the ARF chair concept will bring partners to share the responsibilities of the Chair. The ARF track 2 mechanism is likely to be invigorated.

For India, it was a useful time to be seen as an important strategic partner of ASEAN. EAM Jaishankar held meetings with the ASEAN Secretary General (whose visibility is rising) and some dialogue partners, including Wang Yi of China, Blinken of USA, Lavrov of Russia, the EU and several from the ASEAN countries.

The India-ASEAN summit was chaired by the foreign minister of Singapore, the coordinator for India. Jaishankar said ‘ASEAN is a crucial pillar of India’s policy and its vision for the wider Indo-Pacific. A strong and unified ASEAN plays an important role in the emerging dynamic of the Indo-Pacific. India firmly supports ASEAN centrality and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific’. Cyber, financial and maritime security are part of further activity under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships (CSP).

The India- ASEAN common view of maintaining the region as the epicentrum of growth through ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific and its collaboration under the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative will set the stage for the India-ASEAN CSP implementation ahead.

The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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