Why Germany should pursue defence ties with India independent of anti-Russia alliance

By: Gurjit Singh

It remains to be seen how much Germany is ready to collaborate with India in the defence sector, while setting aside geopolitical developments on which the two countries may not be on the same page

The visit of the German defence minister Boris Pistorius to India soon after the visit of US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin shows the keenness with which NATO countries are pursuing India.

Pistorius visited Delhi after participating in the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore and thereafter visiting Indonesia. In India, a German defence industry delegation accompanied him.

Pistorius is the Ukraine crisis German defence minister with responsibility for implementing the new German National Security Strategy. He is in charge of spending the special fund of €100 billion and increasing the defence budget. Since becoming defence minister, he has high popular ratings, better than the Chancellor and Vice Chancellor. Normally German defence ministers are underplayed, particularly if they are from the Social Democrats. Pistorius has broken those moulds. Will he be able to break the logjam on the engagement with India?

His intent seems evident; it is the implementation, which is in doubt. His visit was the first since Ursula Van der Lyn visited Delhi as the defence minister in 2015. From then, the German offer of submarines for India’s strategic option has been on the table. Years have passed, several bidders withdrew. The German company TKMS also withdrew. During the visit of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February, the project P75(I) was revived. Now TKMS are back in the fray and perhaps the leading contender.

Pistorius is visited the Mazagon Docks in Mumbai as MDL is a designated strategic partner for the submarine project. The German submarine is currently the technology leader with its air propulsion technology and is challenged now by Spanish and Korean competitors. The revised tenders are likely in August 2023. India needs to move faster on decision making to retain the interest of these companies.

Pistorius placed his India visit in the context of Germany’s Indo-Pacific policy and the Ukraine crisis. He offered a return visit of two ships next year to follow the lone ship visited in January 2022. Further exercises with the Indian Navy in Goa are envisaged. 

This is certainly no tipping point, but shows that Germany is ready to do more in the region. Pistorius also said this at the Shangri La dialogue. Indonesia, on 26 May 2023, received two -mine finders 731 Pulau Fani and 732 Pulau Fanildo of the MHV-60 project. This was at the shipbuilding part of Abeking and Rasmussen in Lemwerder.

However, it is the love hate relationship with Russia that Germany is now trying to balance and wean India away from Russia in defence supplies. This too sounds like a homily because he did not really offer anything concrete for India to consider.

India seeks investment, technology transfers and the building of supply chains by German companies in defence related industries. Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh offered the opportunities available under the Make in India programme and the defence corridors in Uttar Pradfesh and Tamil Nadu. Will German companies who are focussed on Maharashtra and Karnataka for the last three decades, at least now look beyond? Will they have the courage to enter into technology transfers and local manufacturing to merge into their own global manufacturing processes?

Most Western countries who want India to reduce dependence on Russian equipment, do not match the transfer of technology and local manufacturing that Russia offered. Indian diversification of defence supplies predates the Ukraine crisis by several years, but it has yet not seen either the US or France provide it with Make in India alternatives. The prospect of the jet engine collaboration with the US is looking hopeful so perhaps the trend will alter.

Now it is the turn of Germany and it remains to be seen how much they are ready to collaborate. The submarine project particularly requires a high degree of indigenisation with technology transfers and core responsibility for that. Will TKMS bring along supporting technology for indigenisation?

Other than the submarine project there is nothing much which Germany offers India. In 2022, German defence exports to India were about €1 million, mainly consisting of small arms and ammunition. This needs to be compared with German defence exports of about €8.35 billion in 2022 and €9.35 billion in 2021. Both were record breaking efforts. The German self-restriction particularly by the Social Democrats has given way, even when they were in a coalition with the CDU. Now, under pressure from NATO and the US to spend billions of euros on defence, Germany has to up the ante and increase its own production which will become more efficient if they share it with supply chains in India.

Germany produces tanks which Ukraine is hankering after. Germany lacks the ability to produce enough to even make up what its defence forces have transferred to Ukraine. The same goes for armoured personnel carriers. The Euro fighter is no more a major contender for any of India’s objectives.

Therefore, the ball drops only on the submarine project. In the context of that, India seeks joint ventures, technology transfers and make in India projects particularly in the defence corridors. India should work on getting the landers or German States where large defence manufacturing facilities exist to look at twinning arrangements with UP and Tamil Nadu to focus their attention on the corridors. The Landers in Germany play a major role in such efforts.

Indian companies have orders of more than 500 Airbus aircraft between Indigo and Air India. Yet Airbus is not persuaded to set up an MRO or production facility for parts in India. In China, they produce complete aircraft. They need a better de-risking strategy and to woo India with strategic investments which will create a supply chain of parts and equipment which could serve the interests of both countries together.

India welcomes the German Indo-Pacific guidelines and their attention to India and its region. India also realises that in the vast waters of the Indo-Pacific much more needs to be done with potent partners. Germany would do well to understand Indian requirements and work with it without putting it into the matrix of an anti-Russia alliance.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed are personal.