Chaos could reign in Pakistan as noose tightens on Imran Khan

By: Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

Early elections are unlikely since the Pakistan Army appears to be happy backing a coalition of parties.

Imran Khan’s arrest is a consequence of the events that unfolded after Pakistan’s Supreme Court directed holding of early elections. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government and the Army do not want Khan around. With his popularity rising with each passing day, if there’s a compulsion to hold elections, Khan is going to be victorious.

He seems to have found a connect with the masses of Pakistan who have tried out the other parties. The Pakistan Army has also not worked effectively. Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), seems to be the only one which appeals to the people.

In light of the manner in which Khan was appointed Prime Minister, for him to be promoting democracy for the sake of the institution, seems very questionable. He is batting for democracy because he knows that if there are elections today, he is going to win the popular vote. Tomorrow if he is required to stay on, against all norms of democracy, he will definitely do that.

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This seems to be a situation in which there are lots of external elements playing their role. We are aware of the importance of Pakistan’s strategic location for China, for the Americans, and for other countries. How much of a role they are playing can’t be determined exactly at present. But obviously there are interests at work, for the simple reason that the Pakistani economy should have collapsed by now. It has been kept alive artificially. I think something is being infused into it from time to time.

Khan is on the backfoot at the moment with no support from anywhere, because in his tenure, he has also been very critical of the USA. China has no great liking for anyone in Pakistan and it can probably go along with anyone. Their best bet is perhaps the Pakistan Army. Even for the Americans, the Pakistan Army is the friendliest organisation.

It’s early yet to surmise as to which direction this whole thing will go. But I definitely don’t foresee early elections, not even by September-October. I foresee chaos in Pakistan. I don’t think Khan is going to be in a position to participate in these elections for quite some time.

The Pakistan Army appears happy with the current arrangement where it is simply backing a coalition of parties. With the shaky economy, the kind of internal security situation they are facing with the re-advent of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP), etc., I don’t think the Pakistan Army wants to muddy its hands. It wants to remain the kingmaker, the background player pushing its agenda.

The Deep State of Pakistan is a very powerful entity. There are a lot of economic interests involved, a lot of hidden agendas and personalities who will never perhaps reveal themselves. So, the Army will probably be happy to continue with the situation, at least until the economy can improve, if nothing else, and hope that the situation will not present itself where Khan can come back again in the future — unless there is a complete compromise between the Pakistan Army and the PTI. Compromises and negotiations can take place. Tomorrow, Imran Khan could be in jail and there could be a process of compromise which is to the advantage of the Deep State. I have always been saying that the Pakistan Army is the world’s greatest initiator of events or the poorest dominator.

The manner in which this arrest was conducted was very questionable. The Pakistan Army was not involved in the arrests directly. They sent the rangers, a paramilitary force that mans the border. And then to greet him in that manner and show these visuals, I don’t think that was to the advantage of the Pakistan Army in any way.

The Pakistan Army may be thinking that browbeating Khan, cowing him down psychologically or paralysing his party could be to their advantage. But I think they should be thinking of the long term. What they must realise is that Imran Khan is getting more popular by the day. There can be a variety of reasons for it but sometimes, personalities just come out of the blue and touch base with the populace, somehow appeal to the psyche of the people. That’s exactly what happened to Imran Khan. After all, he has been an iconic cricket captain. He won the World Cup for Pakistan in 1992. And he’s also got a background which seems to project that he’s highly intellectual and educated—being an Oxford alumnus, having been with the cricket team, etc.

Future of Imran Khan’s party

Imran Khan’s party has been centred on Khan and his personality. There will be attempts within the PTI to take over the mantle from him. For example, Shah Mahmood Qureshi (Vice chairman of PTI and former Foreign Minister of Pakistan) has ambitions of his own to be the prime minister of Pakistan one day.

But for the moment, I think they will play along and exploit the sentiment in the streets. They would not like do any major changes in the leadership. It would be shown as if everything is being kept in waiting for Khan to come back and take over. That’s perhaps the best way forward for them at the moment.

Confrontation in the streets is likely to increase. A very effective psychological warfare is going on at the moment, with the visuals all over Pakistan. The Inter Services Public Relations, the media and PR wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces is very good at putting these things together as a campaign. They are attempting to portray Khan as anti-national.

His party will surely make a strong case to try and keep them out. That’s the manner in which this whole procedural situation will probably pan out in the near future.  

I wonder if Imran Khan’s persona security is something which can be questioned today. The Pakistan Army has a history. You know what happened to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (former President of Pakistan). Many politicians have suffered similarly. The Pakistan Army leadership doesn’t think twice of the consequences of something like this, although it is difficult in today’s world. We’ve seen what happened to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Khashoggi case and things like that. There is will be an international furore on these things today. I’m not sure whether the Pakistan Army is intellectual enough to understand the consequences of that.

The visuals coming out of Pakistan were quite unbelievable. I thought these are morphed videos. If you look at the Indian Army, would you ever expect a mob to be able to come to the corps commander’s house or the gates of the garrison and try to break it down or burn it up, with the Pakistan Army’s past masters that rule over the civilians standing by and doing nothing? It seems that these things have been set up to try and project that Imran Khan is involved in criminal activities, his followers making a case for the ban on the PTI legally, having gone and attacked national assets.

But I think it’s a very ham-handed effort. No one is believing it. Not many people around the world believe it because the Pakistan Army’s image is something different. Eight people are dead (till Tuesday). That seems to be nothing compared to the kind of chaos being shown on the streets and the action against the GHQ in Rawalpindi, of all places.

‘Bouncing back a big challenge for Pakistan’

Every indicator is there to show that politically, from the internal security angle, from the economic angle, from a climate change angle, Pakistan seems to be imploding. A country with nuclear weapons, it is worrying the whole world. Some warnings have been issued by the UK and the US to Pakistan to try and ensure that the turbulence in the streets is brought to a halt.

Someone seems to be underwriting their economy, at least to allow Pakistan to keep its head above water. So these elements will try and ensure the survival of Pakistan. But in its current state, it’s going to a big challenge for Pakistan to bounce back. It needs leadership. And I don’t think either Shehbaz Sharif (Prime Minister of Pakistan) or Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan), for that matter, or anyone is in a position to provide that leadership.

The international community still believes that the Pakistan Army is the one organisation which can restore order. There could be an international acceptance that the Army temporarily comes to power, sets the house in order, and takes the next five years or so, by which time the economy would probably see some improvement, and thereafter reintroduce democracy. But we know when the Pakistan Army comes to power, when someone tastes power in that manner, it is not going to be easy to go back to the barracks.

So Pakistan has a murky future at the moment. Lots of well-to-do people are leaving Pakistan to wherever they can settle. The country’s international reputation is in the dumps.

What’s worse is the internal security situation in terms of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), what’s happening on the western borders, what’s happening with Afghanistan. There was a time when the Pakistan government controlled the Taliban. Today, the Taliban is dictating things to Pakistan. With the current weak political nature of Pakistan, its internal security problems, I fear that the chaos of Afghanistan, which existed in the past, could travel to Pakistan. If this happens, this whole region is going to be in turbulence. You must remember that there are lots of weakened, ungovernable spaces in Afghanistan, and equally ungovernable spaces are emerging in Pakistan.

Organisations like the TTP, the Al Qaida, and the Islamic State are waiting to step into these areas. I foresee a period of reasonable chaos in this region.

What does it mean for India?

Fortunately, India is still guarded from it. The Line of Control (LoC) ceasefire agreement is holding. A lot of people think this is the time that we should change the dynamics of the LoC and things like that. But I don’t think so. We should be standing by, watching, and making sure our borders are not compromised in any way. Vigilance should be very strong. I don’t think there’s going to be a situation where there will be movement of population from Pakistan. But nevertheless, the contingency is always alive that the Pakistan armed forces decide to do something on the borders. That is something we should be prepared for. Not just the Army or the Air Force or the Navy, this should be war-gamed comprehensively by the government of India and the think-tanks in the country.

The author is a member of the National Disaster Management Authority and former GOC 15 Corps in Jammu and Kashmir.

(As told to Aditya Raj Kaul)