How Indonesia seeks to steer ASEAN find its footing in the changing Indo-Pacific dynamics

The three major problems afflicting ASEAN are Myanmar, the attitude of China to the South China Sea and the need to revive the economy in a post-pandemic

By: Gurjit Singh

ASEAN held its 42^nd Summit, under the chairmanship of Indonesia last week. It was held in the quaint town of Labuan Bajo off the Sea of Flores. The island is known for tourism to visit the home of the rare Komodo dragon. Nobody wants ASEAN to become a diminishing breed like the famous dragon.

Eyes were on Indonesia as ASEAN chair within the theme ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth. Its turn comes every decade. The last was in 2011, when it switched turns with Brunei. Each time Indonesia assumes the ASEAN chair it undertakes consolidation and new initiatives. Expectations are attached to Indonesia this time too. This was Jokowi’s only term as Chair of ASEAN and came in his last year as President, so legacy making is anticipated.

What are the significant achievements of this summit? First, it was actually held. For the last few years ASEANs two annual summits were combined in one; this time there will be two summits, the first now and the second in September rather than November to accommodate world leaders coming to the EAS, alongside the second ASEAN summit and then proceeding to the G20 Summit in India.

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Secondly Timor Leste participated as an observer in the runup to their full membership of ASEAN.

The three major problems afflicting ASEAN are Myanmar, the attitude of China to the South China Sea and the need to revive the economy in a post-pandemic phase.

On Myanmar, Indonesia undertook quiet yet innovative steps. It engaged with parties involved in Myanmar including the opposition and the ruling junta. A Thailand-led initiative at track 1.5 level, which brought together Myanmar’s neighbours, including India and China, held two meetings in Bangkok and New Delhi. Indonesia did not shirk from them, but participated. Indonesia is taking the practical approach to Myanmar. It emphasizes that the ASEAN 5PC is the core position and not discarded. It ensures that Myanmar is not invited to meetings chaired by Indonesia this year. However, its quiet diplomacy with Myanmar, ASEAN and other countries of the region engaged with Myanmar is welcome.You May LikeThe boy who was caged and scalded to deathCNARead More  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

Indonesia seems clear that Myanmar is not a problem which can be wished away. Myanmar is a part of ASEAN and therefore their responsibility. Indonesia is aware that Myanmar’s neighbours like India, China and Bangladesh have different expectations compared to other partners of ASEAN who have a more determined expectation of what ASEAN should be doing.

With regard to China, ASEAN’s largest trading partner, the usual statements about the South China Sea, UNCLOS, maintaining the rules-based order and an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct emerged. There was nothing in the chairman’s statement to say that something new had happened. However, ASEAN is engaging with other partners including India to increase their strategic diversity and autonomy. The ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on Upholding Multilateralism remains valid but awaits action,

The ASEAN economy is expected to achieve a growth of 4.7% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024, propelled by strong domestic consumption, net exports, and accelerated recovery in services. Indonesia came to the meeting with a positive result of a growth rate of over 5% though, other major economies in the region had more disappointing results. The Chairs statement emphasizes that ASEAN needs to have greater unity, cohesion and integration to bring the full benefits of economy to the fore.

It wants to bring forth new technologies and ideas and thus there were several parts to the Chair’s statement, which refer to initiatives that ASEAN intends to take to improve their economy and competitiveness. “We are determined to make Southeast Asia the centre of regional economic growth and an engine for global growth through robust cooperation, including in the food, energy, health, and finance sectors.” the statement avers.

Regional Electric Vehicle Ecosystem, Regional Payment Connectivity and Promoting Local Currency Transaction, Sustainable Urbanisation and supply chains are specifically mentioned. Interestingly, there is the Jokowi stamp on the statement. There is now a fast-track rural transformation effort through ASEAN Villages Network. This is Jokowi’s strength in Indonesia because he comes from that background and has brought this forth as a fruitful idea.

While there is a mention of ASEAN’s partners it mainly focuses on renewing trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and China. There is no mention of the review of the AITIGA with India, which is overdue and should start this year. Saudi Arabia, Spain, Panama, and Mexico are welcomed as new adherents to ASEANs foundational Treaty of Amity and Cooperation.

Indonesia is conscious that ASEAN is at a low ebb while it tries to deal with the changing international dynamics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Though it has an AOIP, in order to humour China, it still keeps talking about the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean separately in paragraph 29 of the statement. Indonesia proposes to hold the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum to enhance economic interaction later this year.

The Chair’s statement does not avoid the fact that ASEAN needs to enhance its unity and credibility to maintain its centrality, ‘cognizant of the need to balance pragmatism and ambition so that ASEAN remains stable and progressive while staying true to its identity’ in a rapidly changing world.

There is also the question of greater efficacy of ASEAN institutions and the role of the Secretary General. There is an effort to provide a more institutionalised role for the Secretary General in humanitarian assistance programs of the ASEAN. On the working methods, there is a lot of words in the statement without really saying what they are doing about it. There is a review committee, High-Level Task Force on the ASEAN Community Post-2025 Vision which is supposed to present the follow up to the vision statement for 2025 for the next two decades. It would include a review of the working methods, but other than talking about engaging with the committee satisfactorily and things like that there is no direction exposed.

The Jakarta Post in an editorial said ‘Inertia prevails at ASEAN Summit’ implying the expected push from the Indonesian leadership was not forthcoming. Without institutional reform, ASEAN centrality will not be credible in the new dynamics of the Indo-Pacific.

Indonesia is putting its political heft behind ASEAN. It could achieve more provided its close friends like China, US and Australia heed its views and give it space to act with more discretion rather than march to the beat of their drummers.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed are personal.

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