Peace with India isn’t up to Bilawal. But Pakistan can ensure there is no dagger at SCO meet

Don’t forget there is a substantial lobby in India too that would scoff at the idea of normal relations with Pakistan. It’s a challenge of enormous proportions.

By:

TARA KARTHA

Even before Bilawal Bhutto Zardari set foot on Indian soil, the general opinion was that not much good could come out of his visit. In fact, the prognosis was so dire that experts were hoping that at the very least, it wouldn’t be a disaster. Pakistan’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation had been unenthusiastic so far. One delegation showed up with a ridiculous map that claimed large parts of Indian territory, while the defence minister did not even deign to attend the meeting of his counterparts across the grouping, sending an advisor instead. So no, Pakistan, it seems, is not even trying. Yet Bilawal chose to come to India, albeit for a conference where China is king and a summit is scheduled. But, it’s something. 

Reverse gear in the run-up

Apart from this, there were hostile reactions in the run-up to Bilawal’s visit. Journalists Hamid Mir and Nasim Zehra berated then-Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa for his push for dialogue, and worse still, the army’s lack of the wherewithal to fight. As experts point out, the question is, first, why both chose to keep quiet for a year after the original interview was given in April 2021, besides the deliberate ignoring of the effects of a severe economic turmoil on the defence budget. Then came demands from Bilawal’s predecessor Shah Mahmood Qureshi that the foreign minister not only raise the Kashmir issue, but also meet with Hurriyat leaders. Separately, the “Discord Leaks” revealed Minister of State Hina Rabbani Khar dictating policy on China, leading to Bilawal being mocked as an intern at the Foreign Ministry. All of which makes for some heavy weights for a 34-year-old to shoulder. 

Is the army in for a shaky peace? 

Amid all the noise, it is worth asking: who in Pakistan actually wants peace? Certainly, a long-running back channel seemed to indicate that the army, starved of funds, would be one such entity. This intensive back channel, confirmed by a senior UAE official in 2021, would have involved then-ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, as well as the Corps Commanders. Remember also that it was Gen Bajwa who reached out with an olive branch in early 2021, offering to “bury the past and move on” in a public speech. 

Yet, it appears that the current army chief, General Syed Asim Munir, who surely knew of the hard-headed reasoning behind the back channel dialogue, is in no mood to follow this line – as yet. The first briefing by his Director General (Inter-Services Public Relations), Major General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, while full of the usual lambast against India, acknowledged the 2021 dialogue, saying that the border remained peaceful. That’s something, unlike General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who even denied having a file on the dialogue. 

On the other hand, there are some positive signs, such as the recent proposal by Awami Muslim League led by Sheikh Rashid in the PoK assembly to build a corridor for Kashmiri Pandits to visit Mata Sharda’s temple, taking forward Indian Home Minister Amit Shah’s proposal, which went through without a hitch. Rashid is a known front of the army. 

However, as Pakistan’s debt jumped 30 per cent over the last year, going past PKR 55 trillion, reports suggest that the army is having trouble feeding its soldiers, with complaints to the QuarterMaster General. But, on the other hand, the army was able to force through a pay hike of a total of 25 per cent for all personnel. The average army man is still better off than his civilian counterpart, so it’s not as if Gen Munir is desperate for peace. He still has some wiggle room. 

The politicians 

It is no secret that Pakistani politicians regularly try to please the army. At present, this has worsened with Imran Khan on the streets demanding elections and a warring coalition  at the helm. Elections are likely soon, and the army top brass has little motivation to back Imran Khan, who has single-handedly tarnished its name more than any other individual. General Munir has an additional reason to not support Khan — the former PM caused his removal as ISI chief in favour of his own candidate. 

In this case, the establishment’s choice will have to be between Bilawal, who is young  and (apparently) easily manipulated, and the Sharifs, who are surely the less favourable choice given the visceral hatred of Nawaz Sharif. Ambassador Satinder Kumar Lambah has detailed in his book that Sharif once made a strong push for peace. He even asked his generals why there was a terror attack in India every time there was forward movement on dialogue. 

There is also the obverse. A true breaking of the ice, such as a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would be a huge feather in the cap of the party that swings it. That means that each party will not allow the other to take credit unless one gets an overwhelming majority. This points to only one direction – Imran Khan, and whoever in the army supports him. Quite a problem.

Outside powers 

Despite warnings from academia and the recent ‘Discord Leaks’ about Pakistan sliding completely into the Chinese embrace, it is unlikely to happen. Statistics indicate that $53 billion of Pakistan’s $126 billion debt is owed to US-dominated banks such as the International Monetary Fund and the Paris Club, which provide loans on generous terms and long repayment periods. In contrast, most of the $27 billion owed to China is on harsh commercial terms. 

The US remains an important actor, and its current interest lies in getting Delhi to concentrate its forces against China as long as the ‘Indo-Pacific’ construct holds. China’s current position is more opaque. Amb Lambah’s book refers to China’s hint that Pakistan should accept the Line of Control as a border due to fears of a militant spillover into Xinjiang, and later ‘lukewarm’ support on Kargil. China has an inside track on the pathetic state of Pakistan’s economy, which is eroding its own investments, so it is not in China’s interests for Pakistan to spend its last groat on defence. It is far more likely that China will use Pakistan as a military base for itself. 

Meanwhile, Gen Munir’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the hope of obtaining more loans may bear fruit, but neither is likely to want Islamabad to waste (their) resources on increasing tensions with India. There is strong donor fatigue with Pakistan and its disastrous adventurism.

The people we forgot

Most crucial are the people of Pakistan, who are in a precarious situation, with inflation reaching a record high of 36.42% and reports of stampedes and deaths in food riots, even as prices of essential goods surge to a 48-year high. Opening up trade could ease the situation by making cheaper vegetables available. 

The obverse of that is the intense radicalism at this level. Even as an economic disaster bit, several hundred thousand Pakistanis were on the streets protesting against the burning of the Quran in Sweden. Then there was the attack on a Chinese engineer for alleged blasphemy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and a mob lynching of a Sri Lankan in Sialkot, none of which is seen elsewhere in the Islamic world. It is unclear whether such a radicalised population would welcome peace with India for economic benefits, given the years of indoctrination that India is the enemy. 

Business and trade 

Detailed reports have highlighted the benefits of trade between India and Pakistan, as well as the loss of livelihoods on both sides due to the ending of trade corridors. Officials have intermittently spoken about the advantages of opening up trade, and various business chambers have backed this stance. However, most of these works have also pointed out the lack of information about the opportunities available, and the often contradictory practices on the ground that result in trade moving through third countries even at the best of times. Despite this, there is no doubt that businessmen would actively participate in exploratory talks for opening up trade, and key industries would be equally interested in pushing up infrastructure projects to allow Pakistan to emerge as an important transit corridor – a key aspect of General Bajwa’s proposals.  

Overall, there are threads of hope that Pakistan will abandon its disastrous policies, but these threads need to be brought together by outside actors as well as those with a stake in normalisation. As the proposal for another religious corridor into PoK shows, there are multiple interests involved. The trouble, as always, is in effectively quelling the saboteurs. Don’t forget that there is a substantial lobby in India as well, who would scoff at the idea of normal relations with Pakistan. It’s a challenge of enormous proportions. As a young foreign minister chooses to visit India, even as part of a multilateral meeting, it is not solely his decision. Like Banquo’s ghost in Macbeth, there are shadowy actors waiting in the wings. One hopes one or two of them would be carrying an olive branch rather than a dagger. As for India, it must remember that confident powers do not tamely wait for events to happen. They shape them in a way they like. The current situation is eminently suitable for that.  

Tara Kartha is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)