Fumio Kishida’s LDP wins local elections in Japan, but Ishin emerges as a future challenger

By: Gurjit Singh

Fumio Kishida’s continuation as prime minister and LDP president after the G7 will depend on his political management of factions some of which were bruised in the elections

In a sense of deja vu, there was a pipe bomb explosion near Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida while he was campaigning during Japan’s local elections on 15 April. This is less than a year since former prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated during the upper house election campaign leading to an unprepared ruling party.

The attack on Kishida or in his vicinity was slightly better handled with the help of local fisherfolk who overpowered the potential assassin. The security detail could not diffuse but did distract the pipe bomber and hustled Kishida away. While popular reaction and the reaction of the security team may have been better, the fact that violent political assassinations are attempted by individual deviants with grudges in Japan is a sad commentary.

In an exclusive interview with The Japan Times, Prime Minister Kishida said that he did not feel that his life was threatened by the attack.  His concern was for the people around him, the impact on the local elections and the G7 summit scheduled for May. He condemned the act as an attack on democracy but has been hesitant to comment further pending investigations. This kind of violent act should not happen especially during election campaigning, which is at the core of democracy, he told The Japan Times.

So was this local election about Kishida’s handling of the country, the responsibilities of a G7 country and the confidence that his party leadership has in him or did Ryoji Kimura, the 24-year-old suspect in the attack veer the pitch?

Prior to the assassination attempt, the Liberal Democratic Party had already won important elections being conducted in a phased manner. On 9 April, elections for nine governors, six mayors and several scores of prefectural and municipal assemblies were held. These had come soon after Kishida as the G7 chair had paid a surprise visit to Ukraine and held a meeting with South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol.

In the first races, the LDP won six of the nine governor races including Hokkaido, where the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has always been among the winners. The LDP also won more than half of the 2,260 prefectural assembly seats under contest. The LDP did not fare so well in western Japan particularly Osaka, where Hirofumi Yoshimura won a second term as governor on behalf of Ishin (Japan Innovation Party). They also won the mayoral contest in Yokohama (Japan Innovation Party), and the governor’s position in Nara, which is its first success outside Osaka.You May LikeAs A Single Mother, How Will I Save Him Alone? Please Help!KettoLearn More  by Taboola Sponsored Links 

While LDP should be happy that it has held on too many of the seats, the Ishin is definitely showing stronger signs which in a future national election could translate to more parliamentary seats where it is already the third largest party in the Diet.

The next round of elections on 23 April led to further results. In this LDP won 4 of 5 Diet by-elections in Chiba, 2 in Yamanashi and the Upper House seat in Oita. In Yamanshi, they won back Abe’s seat and his nephew won the second seat vacated by Abe’s brother, former defence minister Nobuo Kishi. The only loss was in Wakayama where Nippon Ishin no Kai candidate Yumi Hayashi won This was the city where Kishida was attacked. Hayashi‘s win is over a large LDP organisation backed by former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, a Wakayama Diet member, and LDP Upper House Secretary-General Hiroshige Seko, who also represents Wakayama. She defeated not only her rival but the LDP organisation. This was a   huge win for Nippon Ishin. Other LDP wins were narrow.

A record seven women won as mayors in the latter half, including two who won unopposed. A record 28 female candidates ran in mayoral elections; of them, 23 ran for the first time. The second round included mayoral polls for 63 cities and 10 special wards of Tokyo.

Kishida seems to believe that he has overcome the low ratings which were pulling him down on the basis of inadequate action against the Moonies of the Unification Church. They are seen as the cause of Abe’s assassination and subsequent revelations show close links to most LDP members.

Now, with a stronger showing, will Kishida be tempted to call an early election? There are rumblings within the LDP that Kishida has not performed well. Since Abe’s assassination, the factions backing him have morphed into smaller, competing groups. His own faction is not the dominant one. There seems to be an internal party truce to allow Kishida to continue till the G7 Summit in May. Perhaps in September, if the wind blows right for a change in party leadership the LDP may attempt that. The current period of the Diet is till 2025 by when the efforts to double defence spending by 2027 should be well underway.

Kishida denies any plan to call snap elections. Though the LDP did better than expected, scrutiny of the election numbers reflects narrow victories. Perhaps public confidence in the Kishida regime is not as strong as the good results may indicate. “We formed a rock-solid base of conservative supporters during the Abe administration, but those supporters are clearly distancing themselves (from the LDP) under the Kishida administration,” a senior LDP office bearer is reported to have said.

The cost of living and low birth rate issues continues to dog Japan. Dealing with the recession and the possible increased immigration are challenges. If these elections give Kishida the other view that his leadership is firm, he may be tempted to call a lower house election where his nominees may win more seats in the Diet, and thus give him firmer control over the party organization. In his home preferred of Hiroshima of 64 seats up for election, the LDP won 29 and ally Komeito 6. Independents won 26. Here Kishida is in control

It is not the failed association attempt and its failed sympathy factor that marks this election. The main result is the growth of Ishin the Osaka-based group into a party with a wider base in Nara and Wakayama. This challenges LDP for the future. The LDP ally Komeito perceives that uncommitted voters are veering away to other parties, referring to the tight races the LDP faced in the by-elections.  LDP candidates are often decided on political alliances within prefectural groups, rather than based on policies to promote youth and women. The reliance on politics as usual is facing trust issues in conventional politics. There is also disinterest. 556 candidates in nearly 40 per cent of the districts ran uncontested showing a shortage of younger candidates.

As a result, Kishida has won but not enough to call an election on his terms. His continuation as prime minister and LDP president after the G7 will depend on his political management of factions some of which were bruised in the elections.

The author is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed are personal.

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