16th round of Corps Commander-level meet: Will China yield?

By: Maj Gen Ashok Kumar

It is time China conceded India’s rise and opted for a graceful exit from the LAC standoff. The 16th Corps Commander-level meet is one such opportunity to do so

Chinese incursions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in April-May 2020 in eastern Ladakh have not helped China strategically, economically or politically. In fact, it has fast-tracked the Indian resolve to develop infrastructure in the border areas, including a number of tunnels for faster movement of men and material, besides providing all-weather connectivity not only in Ladakh region but also in the other border areas including in Arunachal Pradesh.

Over the last two years, fifteen rounds of Corps Commander-level talks have been held but the issue has not yet been resolved. In addition to the Corps Commander-level talks, other mechanisms like Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs are also continuing. A virtual meeting through this mechanism has probably paved the way for holding the 16th Corps Commander-level meeting at the earliest, though the dates for the same are yet to be announced. The Working Mechanism meeting was 24th in its series and has been entrusted to resolve border issues in an institutional manner with the ultimate aim of resolving border issues as and when the situation matures.

Though the planned 16th round of Corps Commander-level meeting is intended to resolve three outstanding issues — Hot Spring, Depsang plains and Demchok — what will come out of this is a matter of conjecture as the present incursions don’t seem to be either local-level actions or military-level actions. These have stemmed out from the highest level with the apparent approval of political establishment as the actions on the LAC have been followed by mass mobilisation of troops in depth including enhanced activity in other areas of the LAC beyond eastern Ladakh.

There were high hopes of the Hot Spring issue getting resolved during the 15th Corps Commander-level meeting as this would not have placed China in any major adversarial strategic position. It was also emerging that some consensus had been reached on the Hot Spring issue, but no way forward on Depsang Plains and Demchok was forthcoming. There were also rumours that the consensus on Hot Springs will be announced at a political level but it did not hold much ground as Hot Spring by itself was a trivial issue to be announced politically. But some still thought that it would happen during the sudden visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on 25 March 2022. It did not happen as it was not to happen. The Indian government was very firm and categorical in its stance which was conveyed by our external affairs minister in no uncertain terms. It was also clarified that bilateral relations could not be normal unless incursions on the LAC were rolled back.

With the 15th round of Corps Commander-level talks having been held just two weeks before the visit of the Chinese foreign minister, the euphoria of successful completion of Beijing Olympics and Russian aggression in Ukraine being just one month old, wherein China found a new friend in Russia against a growing anti-US stance, the conditions precluded China to enter into a reconciliatory approach with India. While the Chinese foreign minister gave some assurances, especially related to the adverse impacts on education of Indian students, it was almost a failed visit.

There have been major changes since then. It is therefore natural to be more optimistic about the fact that there will be a definite forward movement during the 16th Corps Commander-level talks. If China agrees to revert to pre-April 2020 position followed by the Corps Commander-level talks and/or through border negotiation mechanism alone, it will not give it an honourable exit. Even on previous occasions to resolve the Depsang plains and Sumdurong Chu conflict, political level dialogues helped resolve the issue. It is, therefore, imperative that India also uses its political leverage to settle the LAC issue in a comprehensive manner once the details are fine-tuned during the 16th Corps Commander Level talks as and when these are held.